Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 200902
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
402 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED SW OF MADISON VIA 925-850
MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PERHAPS WEAK FRONTOGENESIS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES ARE VERY SUBTLE AND DO NOT EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO LAST LONG.

THE UPPER LOW OVER UPPER MI WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY WHILE BEING TRAILED BY UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A WEAK SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE
EAST ACROSS THE STATE. FEW-SCT FAIR WX CUMULUS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NEAR LAKE
MI VIA THE LAKE BREEZE.

WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT AND
BEYOND AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW. LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAT WILL BEGIN TODAY WILL
INTENSIFY TNT ON THE NOSE OF A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. PWS WILL INCREASE
TO 1.6-1.9 INCHES WITH ELEVATED CAPE INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG.
THE NOSE OF THE JET WILL NOT EXPAND NEWD HOWEVER SO LOW CHANCE POPS
ARE FORECAST FOR EAST CENTRAL WI WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE SRN CWA
LATE TNT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY ANY TSTORMS.

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WARM AND WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM THURSDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS/STORMS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AS STRONG WARM AIR AND THETA-E ADVECTION CONTINUE. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY...AS MODELS ARE
SPLIT WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. KEPT
SOME CHANCE POPS GOING PER THE THE FARTHER NORTH AND WETTER
MODELS.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

WENT WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
MODELS GENERALLY ARE BUILDING UPPER RIDGING INTO THE AREA FOR THIS
TIME FRAME...WITH A SERIES OF WAVES RIDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS SETUP WOULD RESULT IN SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES IN AREA THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A DRIER
PERIOD SUNDAY/MONDAY THOUGH IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT...PUSHING THE
RIDGE FARTHER NORTH INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AS MODELS ARE NOW HOLDING ONTO
THE RIDGE A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT FOG...PERHAPS 3-5SM AT KMSN...KUES...KENW AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE FEW-SCT040 FAIR WX CUMULUS EXPECTED TODAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH SRN WI FROM THE SW LATE TNT WITH SHOWERS
AND TSTORMS LIKELY. LGT ELY WINDS AND COOLING FROM THE RAINFALL IN
AN INCREASINGLY HUMID ENVIRONMENT MAY LEAD TO LIGHT FOG LATE TNT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION....GEHRING
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DDV


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