Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 281659 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1159 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...

HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE STREAMING INTO SOUTHERN WI TODAY. A FEW
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
FILTERED SUNSHINE AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S INLAND FROM THE LAKE. NEAR
THE LAKESHORE... TEMPS ARE RIGHT AROUND THEIR MAX FOR THE DAY...
STILL PLEASANT IN THE UPPER 70S. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST RIGHT AROUND NOON AND TEMPS WILL DROP.

MESO MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A FEW SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER COULD
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF MADISON AND MILWAUKEE. THIS WOULD BE
IN RESPONSE TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS ALLOWING FOR CAPE VALUES OF 500 TO
1000 J/KG. THE LIFTING MECHANISM WILL BE WEAK... SO ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD BE MORE CONCENTRATED IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG
THE LAKE BREEZE NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON. ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST BUT KEPT OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE COMING UP FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI
TODAY WILL HOLD OFF OVER SOUTHERN WI UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS AND
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD TODAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER NORTH OF MADISON AND
MILWAUKEE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND INSTABILITY.

MID CLOUDS INCREASING LATE TNT AS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR RETURNS TO
THE REGION ON A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET STREAM. THERE WILL BE SMALL
CHANCES OF TSTORMS AROUND SUNRISE ON FRI WITH MUCH BETTER CHANCES OF
TSTORMS LATER IN THE DAY. HEAVY RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT FOR LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A COLF
FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

&&

.MARINE...

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  WINDS WL TURN TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FOR
THE AFTERNOON.  ALREADY PWAW3 AND SGNW3 HAVE TURNED ONSHORE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING BUT WILL MOVE EWD
FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME WEAK PVA ALOFT. SOME MODELS ATTEMPT TO
PRODUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE FRONT AND OVER CENTRAL
WI...BUT DEWPOINTS AND CAPE APPEAR OVERDONE. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FCST WITH FEW-SCT CU EXPECTED. THE W-E SFC RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM
IL TO OHIO WILL RETREAT EWD FOR THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL AID IN LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT BUT ALSO SLY FLOW INLAND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES WITH THE SFC TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. 925 MB TEMPS WARM TO
20-21C WHICH YIELDS LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS.

FOR LATE TNT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NE AND KS WILL LIFT
NEWD INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NW WI. THE 925-850 MB FLOW TURNS TO THE
SW WITH MOISTURE RETURN BUT VERY LITTLE WARM ADVECTION. PWS INCREASE
TO 1.5 INCHES AND ELEVATED CAPES OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OVER THE
WRN CWA BY 12Z FRI. THE MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK WITH
THE MOST FOCUSED LIFT CLOSER TO THE MS RIVER. THUS WENT WITH HIGH
CHANCE POPS WEST OF KMSN TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN ERN WI.

FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK EMBEDDED WAVE OR TWO MOVES THROUGH WHILE A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...THOUGH OVERALL FLOW AND SHEAR ARE PRETTY MARGINAL.
ADDITIONALLY...SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY THERE WILL
BE GIVEN ONGOING SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE MORNING...ALONG WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE DAY. DOES SEEM LIKE A
RESPECTABLE CHANCE FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION AND SPC HAS
MAINTAINED THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.

925 MB TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 19-22C RANGE FRIDAY. EVEN WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION/CLOUDS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH SUN AT
ALL FOR HIGHS TO SHOOT UP TO AROUND 80...SO MAINTAINED WARM TEMPS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE DOWN TO ABOUT THE ILLINOIS BORDER
BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LINGERING
INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. MAINLY
DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE
MUCH COOLER SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WHERE GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING IN
CHILLIER AIR OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY HEAD EASTWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT SHOULD HOLD ON LONG ENOUGH FOR DRY WEATHER MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL
MONDAY...CLIMBING BACK A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPS
WILL PERSIST NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN UNDER ONSHORE WINDS.

EVEN MILDER TEMPS ALONG WITH A RETURN OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS TODAY WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING LATE TNT AS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR RETURNS TO THE
REGION ON A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET STREAM. THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES
OF TSTORMS AROUND SUNRISE ON FRI WITH MUCH BETTER CHANCES OF TSTORMS
LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV


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