Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 280259
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
959 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE TO PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING LATE TO THE WEST. THE UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS AND WRN MN WILL
TRACK ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE MS RIVER ON SUNDAY AND THEN TURN
EWD ACROSS NRN IL LATE SUN NT. THUS THE STRONGEST LIFT AND HIGHEST
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. THE THETAE
ADVECTION AND PVA WILL STILL AFFECT THE AREA WITH SHOWERS AND SOME
TSTORMS EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI. SOME DOUBT ON HOW FAR EAST
THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL REACH. ERN WI WILL HAVE
LITTLE TO NO CAPE AND BE FARTHER FROM THE LIFT SO MOSTLY JUST CHANCES
OF RAIN THERE.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS SUN AM WITH SKIES BECMG
CLOUDY AND SHOWERS AND TSTORM CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUN AFT AND
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH ALONG THE MS RIVER ON SUN
THEN TURN EWD ACROSS NRN IL LATE SUN NT. INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI INCLUDING KMSN FOR SUN
AFT AND EVE. THE CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY TO 1 KFT
DURING SUN EVE AND OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH
VSBYS OF 1-3SM. FOR SE WI RAIN CHANCES ARE LESS CERTAIN BUT
BELIEVE THE MILWAUKEE METRO AREA SOUTH TO THE IL BORDER WILL GET
AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAIN SUN NT. CIGS THERE WILL ALSO LOWER TO
MVFR AND EVENTUALLY TO 1 KFT WITH LIGHT FOG OF 2-5SM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

IT WILL BE QUIET THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS. WITH A
DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE...LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF
THE NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
VALUES.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE LOW SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. A GOOD SHOT OF
MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES UP TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE WILL DECREASE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM BY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST...WITH A
CHANCE EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. MAY STRUGGLE TO SEE ANY PRECIP BY
EVENING FAR EAST OR NORTHEAST GIVEN DRIER AIR AND LESS LIFT.

TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST IN THE EAST SUNDAY DUE TO A LONGER PERIOD OF
SUNSHINE ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL KEEP IT A BIT COOLER RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE THOUGH...ESPECIALLY
NORTH TOWARD SHEBOYGAN.

SHORT TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TAKE SHORT WAVE A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN 24
HOURS AGO...BUT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE SEEING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THE ECMWF AND GEMREG HAVE LITTLE TO NO
QPF IN THE FAR NE WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE
WEST THAN THE OTHER MODELS. PCPN DIMINISHES FROM NW TO SE
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MAINLY SHOWERS WITH LOSS OF CAPE AFTER 06Z
MONDAY.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

ANY BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AS FORCING
WITH FOLLOWING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE TROUGH DROPS INTO SRN
WI BY LATE MORNING. INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING RAISES MOST-
UNSTABLE CAPE TO BETWEEN 600 AND 850 J/KG SO THUNDERSTORMS BECOME
MORE PROBABLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT UNTIL AXIS OF SHORT WAVE
CLEARS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND BEGINS TO PHASE WITH 500 MB LOW
OVER HUDSON BAY.

TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

ECMWF AND GEMNH BRING QPF ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE AS THEY DROP A BIT SHARPER SHORT WAVE AND A WEAK SURFACE
LOW/TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY WHILE THE GFS IS CAPPED AND DRY.

BLENDED SOLUTION YIELDS CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES IN THE FAR WEST. MAINLY SHOWERS EXPECTED BUT ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW

HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS DOWN OVER THE STATE TO BRING A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. LATEST ECMWF
TRIES TO BRING THE LEADING EDGE OF WARM ADVECTION PCPN INTO THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT IT IS AN OUTLIER. WILL HAVE A
COLLABORATIVE SLIGHT CHANCE LIMITED TO THE WESTERN-MOST COUNTIES OF
S CNTRL WI. NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN WILL COME WITH ANOTHER SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES DROPPING SE THROUGH THE CANADIAN PROVINCES. ECMWF WEAKER
WITH BOTH THE WAVE THAT SWEEPS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION THAT BRINGS PCPN TO MAINLY NRN WI FRIDAY. LEAD
WAVE ON GFS BRINGS PCPN INTO SRN WI FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS WITH A STRONGER WAVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. RESULTING BLEND KEEPS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS IN FOR
THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT LOW CONFIDENCE THAT EACH PERIOD
WILL SEE RAIN. THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
AT OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORM SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON FROM MADISON WESTWARD. THE PRECIP MAY SPREAD EASTWARD LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SOME LOWER VSBYS POSSIBLE IN ANY
MODERATE RAINFALL. BEST CHANCE FOR LOWER CIGS WILL BE THE SOUTHWEST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...REM



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