Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 141621 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1121 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...

AREA OF CLOUDS CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS IT
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS WERE BEING DRIVEN BY LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THEY WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WERE ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH
RANGE...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. THIS SHOULD HELP HIGHS REACH THE
MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CATEGORY DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS TAF SITES. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 16
KNOTS AT TIMES.

MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING...LOWERING TO MVFR CATEGORY LATER TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LIGHT RAIN WITH MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT MADISON AFTER 09Z MONDAY...AND AFTER 12Z MONDAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN SITES...AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

THESE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF MONDAY...ENDING
AT THE EASTERN SITES BY 00Z TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...
TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DRIVEN BY A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE
MN/CANADIAN BORDER WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. THE
SURFACE LOW AND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN WI...THUS EXPECTING A STEADY
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO USHER IN A
LITTLE WARMER AIR...SO TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE MID 60S IN MOST
PLACES.

CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN WI THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY SCATTER BY
MIDDAY. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. 925-700MB SLOPED FRONTOGENESIS WILL SUPPORT A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI FROM LATE SUN NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS WAIT UNTIL AFTER 06Z TO
DEVELOP RAIN OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI TONIGHT WHILE THE HI-RES
MODELS SUGGEST AN EARLIER ARRIVAL PER FORECAST REFLECTIVITY FIELDS.
THE DIFFERENCE MAKES SENSE SINCE THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING BEFORE THE LOW LEVELS CAN SATURATE. THUS...MEASURABLE
PRECIP WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER
09Z/4AM.

WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND AN
INCH OVER SOUTHERN WI JUST AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND PRONOUNCED
FRONTOGENESIS... I WENT WITH THE HIGHER QPF OUTPUT FROM WPC WHICH
LEANED HEAVILY ON THE WETTER HI-RES MODELS.

LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS REGION MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS...BUT NOT ENOUGH ENERGY
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. DECREASING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
MONDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...BRINGING SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW
LOW TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT TO FALL TO AROUND 40 ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...MID 40S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK DRY
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S. THIS WILL ALSO BRING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER FROM LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
VFR TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. BKN TO OVC VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
SCATTER OUT BY MIDDAY...BUT MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON
WITH AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. LOOK FOR A STEADY SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZE TODAY.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN WI LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER 09Z/4AM. THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS SHOULD
LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS WITH THE STEADY RAIN MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SLB



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