Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 011601 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1001 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

.UPDATE...

A little drizzle or a few showers will persist into the afternoon,
mainly winding down by evening. Cloudy skies will continue today,
capping high temps at around 40.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

Low clouds will likely persist through Friday given latest models
soundings and extensive cloud cover upstream. Looks like mainly
MVFR ceilings through the period. Could see bases raise a bit
tomorrow afternoon, possibly flirting with VFR.

Drizzle and lingering showers will likely wind down by around
evening.

&&

.MARINE...

Westerly winds will largely remain below small craft
advisory levels today, but a few gusts could approach 20-25kts at
times through about mid day. Light winds will then continue through
Saturday night, but approaching low pressure will bring elevated
southerly winds on Sunday. At this point, Sunday should remain below
small craft advisory levels. A much more energetic low pressure
system is expected sometime during the middle to late part of next
week. Much stronger winds are expected at that time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 245 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast confidence is medium.

No meaningful change to the going forecast.  Moisture continues to
wrap around the weakening and exiting stacked low pressure system
centered over the northern Great Lakes early this morning.  We`ll
see scattered very light rain showers or drizzle through the morning
as short wave energy rotates through. A few spots could see some
light snow/flurries mix in early this morning. The low levels remain
fairly moist overnight, but any forcing is weak.  Can`t rule out
that we may still see some patchy drizzle, due to a lack of ice in
the column, but threat looks too small to include at this time.
Cloudy through this period with a narrow diurnal temperature range.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - Confidence...High
A ridge of high pressure gradually shifts through this period. The
high will be situated over the Plains Friday and then shift across
the Badgerland on Saturday. Mid level flow will be west/northwest
with an increasingly anticyclonic look. So a quiet period though
cloud cover may be stubborn with low level trough still hanging
around with little in the way of thermal advection.

SUNDAY - Confidence...Medium
Models are all showing a mid level shortwave moving through. No real
surface or 850 low noted so more of a trough passage in the lower
levels. Some WAA ahead of the 850 trough. Bufkit shows saturation in
the dendritic growth zone with some loss of ice more likely into the
afternoon hours so some mixiness or pure rain possible as the lower
levels warm. Will leave some light snow accums in there given the
colder look to the soundings during the morning.

MONDAY - Confidence...Medium
Surface/850 anticyclone will be in place with building 500 millibar
heights expected. 850 WAA more pronounced on the ECMWF with some
light precip potential later Monday night mainly in the western CWA.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY - Confidence...Low
Still considerable uncertainty this period. Models do show a lead
shortwave being kicked out into the Ohio Valley ahead of the primary
upper trough. The latter feature will dictate how the cyclogenesis
evolves across the area. At this time the GFS morphs the weaker
cyclogenesis from the lead wave with the primary trough which
evolves the low to our east while the GEM and ECMWF show a warmer
solution with the primary low development further west on Wednesday
which supports more rain with some snow chances as the colder air
wraps in more likely getting into the Wednesday night period.
However given this is the day 6/7 time frame expect more changes
to this scenario going forward.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A large low pressure system over the northern
Great Lakes will continue to weaken and pull off to the east.
Moisture and very light precip will continue to wrap around this
low, across southern Wisconsin. A mix of IFR and MVFR CIGS should
improve a bit to widespread MVFR CIGs by 15z this morning. MVFR
conditions may persist through tonight, especially over south
central Wisconsin, based on model soundings showing lots of
lingering low level moisture. However, in these westerly flow
patterns, we often see KMKE/KENW and sometimes KUES remain a bit
higher, likely in the VFR category. Plenty of uncertainty with
that scenario. Improving conditions should continue through
Friday.

MARINE...Westerly winds will largely remain below small craft
advisory levels today, but a few gusts could approach 20-25kts at
times through about mid day. Light winds will then continue through
Saturday night, but approaching low pressure will bring elevated
southerly winds on Sunday. At this point, Sunday should remain below
small craft advisory levels. A much more energetic low pressure
system is expected sometime during the middle to late part of next
week. Much stronger winds are expected at that time.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV/Hentz
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Davis
Friday THROUGH Wednesday...Collar


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