000
FXUS63 KMKX 090233
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
933 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.UPDATE...-SHRA DIMINISHING ON SCHEDULE AS FIRST WEAK SHORT WAVE
PROGRESSES EAST OF AREA AND LOSS OF INSOLATION. SECOND STRONGER
WAVE PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MN INTO NORTHERN WI MAY
CAUSE A FEW -SHRA TO AFFECT NORTHERN CWA AFT MIDNIGHT. EXPECTING
PATCHY CLOUDS...SLIGHT DEWPOINT DRYING AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FOG LATER TONIGHT. FUTURE SHIFTS WL NEED TO
REEVALUATE PATCHY FOG THREAT WED NIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT IN SPRAWLING RIDGE AXIS. ALSO THERE WILL BE A LACK
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE LOW LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...A VFR PERIOD EXPECTED WITH PASSING CLOUDS.
NOT IMPOSSIBLE A BRIEF -SHRA MAY AFFECT ERN TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT
AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST WI.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD RESULT
IN SCT-BKN CU DURING THE DAY WED.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS BRIEFLY TURNED ONSHORE LATE IN THE AFTN BUT BACKED
BACK OFFSHORE BY 23Z AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE LAND AREAS
OVERWHELMED THE WEAK LAKE BREEZE. HOWEVER STILL EXPECT NORTHWEST
WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE OVERNIGHT AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
CENTRAL WI/CENTRAL LAKE MI SAGS SOUTHWARD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST IS EXITING AS THE
FIRST OF THREE SHORTWAVES DEPART. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND WEAK WAVE. THESE SHOWERS WILL BRING SOME
RAIN CHANCES TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. A THIRD WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
TOMORROW...POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST.
THERE WILL BE LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TOMORROW...SO
SHOWERS COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE ISOLATED. OVERALL...EXPECT A VERY
PLEASANT DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOWER
DEWPOINTS...AND HIGHS IN THE 70S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE TO PREVAIL WED NT INTO THU AM. SLY WINDS WILL THEN
DEVELOP FROM THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS APPROACHING FROM THE NRN PLAINS. THE
CONSENSUS OF MODELS SHOW THE SHORTWAVE IS SOMEWHAT WEAK WITH WEAK
LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND PVA ASSOCIATED WITH IT. VERY
LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT WITH HIGHER CAPE VALUES TO THE
SOUTH. THUS KEPT POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT FOR FRI/FRI NT. THE CLOUDS
AND PCPN CHANCES WILL KEEP THE TEMPS DOWN ON FRI AND OVERALL TEMPS
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD.

LONG TERM...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OR FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BECOME
STATIONARY OVER SRN WI OR NEARBY FOR SAT INTO MON AS THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF WNWLY FLOW ALOFT. THUS CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. AN
UNSEASONABLY DEEP POLAR TROUGH WILL THEN DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL DRIVE THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST IS EXITING AS THE
FIRST OF THREE SHORTWAVES DEPART. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND WEAK WAVE. THESE SHOWERS WILL BRING SOME
RAIN CHANCES TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. A THIRD WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
TOMORROW...POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST.
THERE WILL BE LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TOMORROW...SO
SHOWERS COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE ISOLATED.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE POSSIBILITY OF A LAKE BREEZE AND RESULTANT
WIND SHIFT TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BE JUST LIGHT
ENOUGH FOR THE LAKE BREEZE TO FORM.

MARINE...

SEEING AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO AROUND 22-24 KNOTS SOUTH OF PORT
WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE MAINLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THOUGH AND ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF RAPIDLY LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...SO NO ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK