Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 010856
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
356 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

WESTWARD PROGRESS OF LOW CLOUDS ON SATELLITE LOOPS HAS HALTED AT THE
MS RIVER AND THERE IS SOME EROSION OF THE SRN EDGE OVER NRN IL...SO
EXPECT LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE TO LIFT OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA AROUND MID-MORNING WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS...BUT
EASTERN CWA WILL STILL SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING
COMMUTE.

CURRENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THRU WRN IA TIED TO
SHORT WAVE THAT MODELS TRACK NEARLY DUE NORTH THROUGH S CENTRAL MN
INTO NW WI UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
FIRST UPPER JET MAX. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT PCPN WITH THESE
FEATURES WILL BARELY BRUSH WRN WI TODAY SO WILL LIMIT PCPN CHANCES
TO THE FAR WEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

BETTER CHANCES FOR PCPN TONIGHT WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE. BEST FORCING
AND OMEGA CENTERED OVER CWA AT 06Z THEN SHIFTS EAST OF REGION AROUND
12Z THURSDAY. LOOKING FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH THERE IS SOME
ELEVATED CAPE SO KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER.

KEPT WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE WARMER 925MB TEMPS NOSE IN...THOUGH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING BARELY REACHES THIS LEVEL. EARLY LOW
CLOUDS AND ONSHORE WINDS KEEPING THE EAST COOLER. LOWS HOLD UP
TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S EAST TO AROUND 60 IN THE FAR WEST.

.LONG TERM...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ELEVATED THUNDER WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT
SOUTHEAST WI THU MORNING AS THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND UPPER JET LIFT
NORTHEAST. EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIP THU MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS
WILL MOST LIKELY HANG AROUND.

THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHERN WI THU AFTERNOON AT
THE SAME TIME AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET MOVES
OVERHEAD AND THE LOW LOW LEVEL JET NOSES IN. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY... SO
EXPECTING CAPE TO REMAIN LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. BULK SHEAR WILL BE IN
THE 35 TO 40 KNOT RANGE. INCREASED POPS FOR THU AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY. GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES...
EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH THE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.

SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE ONGOING OVER WI THU NIGHT...LEADING TO
STRONGER WINDS. THE 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL TIGHTEN UP WITH A
NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTATION OVER EASTER WI BY FRIDAY MORNING. LOOK
FOR GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT. SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LULL IN THE
PRECIP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THEN A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL
DROP DOWN INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI FRI EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW SITS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DUE TO THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL LEAD TO A RAW FALL-LIKE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE CORE
OF THE COLD AIR WILL BE OVER CENTRAL WI...WITH 850MB TEMPS JUST
BELOW ZERO CELSIUS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 50 IN SOUTHERN WI.
PLAN ON PLENTY OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS.

850MB TEMPS WILL MODIFY A BIT BY SUNDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME
LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A SHORTWAVE
ROLLING THROUGH THE MIDWEST THAT COULD CLIP SOUTHERN WI... SO KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST.

IT LOOKS DRIER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL COOL. THE ECMWF IS
QUICKER THAN THE GFS TO PUSH THE UPPER TROUGH OUT OF HERE.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOW CLOUDS HELD ON IN THE EAST AND EXPANDED WEST OVERNIGHT WITH
MOIST LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW UNDER INVERSION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR LEVELS IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS WITH BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ON INCREASING SOUTHEAST
WINDS. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT PCPN WILL HOLD OFF TO THE WEST OF
KMSN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD IN FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT...CENTERED OVER FORECAST AREA AROUND 06Z. MAINLY RAIN
SHOWERS...THOUGH A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
WITH ELEVATED CAPE. EXPECT MVFR CIGS VSBYS WITH THE PCPN. THIS FIRST
ROUND OF PCPN TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 09Z AS BETTER
FORCING MOVES EAST OF STATE AROUND 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...

STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...BUT BRING WAVES NORTH OF MILWAUKEE CLOSE TO ADVISORY
LEVELS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BY FRIDAY AS
WESTERLY WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MRC



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