000
FXUS63 KMKX 140258
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
958 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST LLWS UNTIL 15Z FRI
DUE TO A SWLY 50 KT LLJ THAT IS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON FRI. MVFR STRATUS OR STRATOCUMULUS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR FRI AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SCATTER LATE FRI NT AND SAT AM.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014/

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STEADY WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISING INTO THE 30S THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. 500
MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD TO MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA
BY 12Z FRIDAY. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE...BUT NOT SURE IF THEY WILL GET HERE BEFORE THEN.
WENT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE NORTH LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

COLD FRONT AND 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON.
AIRMASS IS FAIRLY DRY...SO LEFT DRY FORECAST GOING. NAM/GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS MOVING INTO THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE NORTH. WENT WITH MAINLY
UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON
AND CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE NORTH SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURE RISE
SOMEWHAT.

FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PULLING OFF TO THE EAST WITH NARROW HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN...THEN EXPANDING ON SATURDAY. LOOKS DRY WITH
LOW TEMPS PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

STRONG CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DROPPING SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WITH AN INVERTED TROF WILL BE TRACKING
FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...EAST INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE INVERTED TROF WILL BE GETTING
SUPPRESSED BY THE RIDGE WITH TIME. ADDITIONALLY...A RATHER WEAK MID
LEVEL TROF WILL ARRIVE ON NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...CLIPPING OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WITH SOME MOISTURE AND
OMEGA. THERE IS A DECENT ZONE OF DEFORMATION AND ISENTROPIC
SATURATION THAT OCCURS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WEAKENING AND MOVING SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE HIGH EXERTS MORE INFLUENCE. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SOME QPF/SNOW OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME...MAINLY
SOUTH OF A MILWAUKEE TO MADISON LINE. ANY SNOW
ACCUMS...HOWEVER...SHOULD REMAIN AT AN INCH OR LESS.

SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL KEEP IT DRY BUT ON THE COLD SIDE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM.

THERE IS A LITTLE MORE MODEL CONTINUITY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE
GFS WITH THE SLOW MOVING AND RATHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THIS TIME. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FASTER AND MUCH
COLDER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT THE EC IS GOING A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH...MEANING A LITTLE COLDER. ANY INITIAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IN THE WARM ADVECTION THROUGH TUE MORNING WILL LIKELY BE SNOW. BUT
WARMER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVES BY TUE AFTERNOON TURNING THINGS OVER TO
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN. WE SHOULD EVEN POP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S
FOR HIGHS ON TUE. THE LOW EXITS TUE NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR
SPILLING IN BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A TRANSITION BACK OVER
TO LIGHT SNOW WITH TIME. THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR SOLUTIONS TO
CHANGE AND GIVEN THE POSSIBLE COMPLEXITIES...CONFIDENCE IS
CHALLENGED WITH THIS ONE AT THIS POINT.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE OUT OF THE EASTERN TAF SITES BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE THEN ANTICIPATED INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH SOME MID CLOUDS STAYING MAINLY NORTH OF TAF SITES LATER
TONIGHT.

LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LINGER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL JET STREAM AT 1500 TO 2000 FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WILL OCCUR TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 45 KNOTS. THUS...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED AND REMAINS IN TAFS TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING...EXITING
TO THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFT WEST
BEHIND THE FRONT BY 15Z FRIDAY AT MADISON...AND AROUND 18Z FRIDAY AT
THE EASTERN SITES. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY. VFR/MVFR CLOUD DECK MAY MOVE INTO TAF SITES DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 03Z FRIDAY ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. GUSTY SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME...AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT LINGERS.
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

WIND GUSTS SHOULD DROP BELOW 22 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...AS A STABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPS. MAY SEE GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
AGAIN AT TIMES FRIDAY...AS LOW LEVEL MIXING OF GUSTY WINDS RESUMES.
WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY MORNING.
ANY GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY FRIDAY EVENING.

WINDS AND WAVES MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH
OF THE REGION.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...DAVIS