937
FXUS63 KMKX 020926
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
426 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There are small chances for thunderstorms this afternoon and
  evening.

- There are chances for thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and
  night. Gusty winds may occur with any stronger storms.

- Very warm and humid conditions for Independence Day and
  Saturday, with heat index values in the middle to upper 90s.

- There are small chances for thunderstorms in the morning on
  Independence Day, with better chances Saturday into Saturday
  night, perhaps lingering into Sunday. Locally heavy rainfall
  is possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 426 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Today through Thursday night:

Another warm and humid day is expected today, with modest
westerly winds. There will be some diurnal cumulus clouds this
afternoon. Highs in the middle 80s are expected for most of the
area. The lake breeze should be negated by the westerly winds.

There are small chances (around 20 percent) for showers and
storms this afternoon and evening, as a frontal boundary sags
southwest into north central to northeast Wisconsin and a modest
500 mb shortwave trough crosses the region. The upward vertical
motion is rather weak, despite forecast soundings being
uncapped by later this afternoon. Thus, CAMs are not showing
much activity until perhaps this evening in northern parts of
the area. Uncertain with if any development will occur and may
remain isolated at best into this evening.

There may be a few showers that clip western parts of the area
later tonight, with the low level jet nose to the west
generating some showers or storms.

The warm front should move steadily northward into the area
Thursday and Thursday evening, before pushing northward later
Thursday night or early Friday morning. The low level jet
remains focused more over west central and far southwest
Wisconsin Thursday, before shifting its focus into northern
Wisconsin Thursday night. The lake breeze boundary may provide
another boundary source. Overall, there is uncertainty again
with if and how much shower and storm activity occurs.

Forecast soundings are uncapped again with peak heating, so a
little more confidence that there may be at least isolated to
perhaps scattered activity with the front. For now, kept 20 to
30 percent chances for Thursday afternoon and night. Gusty winds
may occur with any stronger storms, with mean layer CAPE of
1000 to 1500 J/kg and deep layer bulk shear of 25 to 30 knots.

Highs in the middle to upper 80s are forecast for Thursday, with
heat index values in the upper 80s to lower 90s inland.

Wood

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 426 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Independence Day through Tuesday:

There may be a few lingering showers or storms that move
northeast out of northern parts of the area early Friday
morning, with the departing warm front. South to southwest winds
in the warm sector on Independence Day into Friday night are
expected, capping off the airmass. Thus, removed the rest of the
lingering PoPs for Independence Day into Friday evening, and
may need to remove PoPs into Saturday morning as well in later
forecasts.

Very warm and humid conditions will be the main story on
Independence Day, with highs around 90 degrees and heat index
values in the middle to upper 90s. South winds near the
lakeshore may keep those areas cooler. This warmth will continue
into Saturday, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s,
highest southeast including Milwaukee. Similar heat index
values in the middle to upper 90s are expected everywhere, with
southwest winds expected Saturday. Confidence is fairly high, as
models and ensembles have been pretty consistent with showing
this warmth for many forecast cycles now.

Continued to bring in higher PoPs (40 to 60 percent) later
Saturday into Saturday night, as the cold front moves into the
region, with low pressure passing by to the north. There is some
uncertainty if this frontal passage may be a little slower and
linger into Sunday. Either way, it looks to be a good amount of
showers with some thunderstorms at times. Forecast soundings are
showing more moist adiabatic lapse rates and potential for
locally heavy rainfall, as bulk shear vectors may be more
parallel to the front.

High pressure may bring a brief period of quiet weather with
somewhat cooler temperatures by Monday or Monday night, before
more active weather moves toward the region by the middle of
next week. Thus, this period may have some breaks in
precipitation.

Wood

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 426 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Modest westerly winds are expected today, with scattered
diurnal cumulus clouds this afternoon. The lake breeze should
be negated by the westerly winds.

A few showers and storms may occur this afternoon and evening.
Uncertain with if any development will occur and may remain
isolated at best into this evening. Will leave mention out of
TAFs for now due to low confidence.

There may be a few showers that clip western parts of the area
later tonight. Otherwise, skies should clear out with light
winds.

A warm front should move steadily northward into the area
Thursday and Thursday evening, before pushing northward later
Thursday night or early Friday morning. Light south winds are
expected south of the front, with east to southeast winds north
and east of the front, including the lakeshore terminals.

There is uncertainty with if and how much shower and storm
activity occurs with the warm front Thursday afternoon and
night. Scattered diurnal cumulus clouds are expected again
Thursday afternoon.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 426 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

High pressure around 30.0 inches will linger across the Middle
Mississippi River Valley today into Thursday, before moving to
the east by Friday. Light southwest to west winds will continue
today into tonight. Light north to northeast winds Thursday into
Thursday night will shift south to southwest on Friday, as a
warm front moves north through the region.

South to southwest winds will then increase Friday night into
Saturday night, as low pressure around 29.6 inches moves across
Lake Superior and Ontario and pulls a cold front through the
region.

There will be mainly small chances for showers and
thunderstorms at times this afternoon and evening. More
widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected
later Saturday into Sunday, as the cold front crosses the lake.

Wood

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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