Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
FXUS63 KMKX 282144
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
344 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017
The surface warm front has lifted north, and was located from just
south of Madison to just north of Milwaukee at mid afternoon. The
front shouldn`t make any further progress north this evening. Still
awaiting our next round of convection, which should arrive early
this evening as low pressure approaches. As previously mentioned,
although instability is somewhat limited, mid-level lapse rates are
quite steep, and the effective shear is robust. Our greatest severe
risk north of the warm front remains elevated hailers, however will
have to watch the far south where there is some potential for storms
to become rooted within the boundary layer. If this happens a wind
and low-end tornado threat could develop for our far south and
A strong mid-level wave will eject through western Great Lakes late
tonight into Wednesday. Colder air wrapping in behind the low will
result in a change over from range to snow from northwest to
southeast. By daybreak Wednesday, expect all snow in the far
northwest, with rain in the southeast. The precipitation will then
transition to all snow during the day. Due to the vigorous nature of
the wave, and good mid/upper support, accumulating snow is expected
on Wednesday, with amounts averaging 2 to 4 inches. Could see
amounts a bit higher in places, and issued a Winter Weather Advisory
for all but our counties along the Illinois border. Prepare for
impacts to the Wednesday commute.
.Wednesday night and THURSDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium
Still looks like a quick moving shortwave will pass through the
on Thursday, bringing some light snow. Models move the surface low
across southern Wisconsin. Should see temps near normal on
.FRIDAY THOUGH TUESDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium
High pressure will bring dry weather on Friday, but temps will
likely remain at or even a tad below normal due to colder temps
aloft and snow on the ground.
Warm advection Friday night as the high departs may bring a little
light snow the forecast area.
Milder temperatures are then expected for the weekend under
southerly low level flow.
Rain chances are likely to return Sunday night and Monday as low
We may get some light snow on the backside of the low Tuesday.
Areas of LIFR ceilings and visibilities will persist north of
Madison and Milwaukee into this evening. Farther south, prevailing
IFR ceilings and MVFR or IFR visibilities are expected.
Showers and thunderstorms, some strong, could impact southern and
eastern portions of the area (including the TAF sites) this evening
into early tonight.
Rain showers overnight will change over to accumulating snow on
Wednesday with 2 to 4 inches expected. This will be a heavy, wet
Dense fog will continue over the nearshore waters this evening
before dissipating later tonight. Strong thunderstorms may impact
the nearshore waters this evening into early tonight, with hail and
strong winds possible.
Gusty winds and building waves are expected late tonight into
Wednesday, and a Small Craft Advisory is in effect during this time.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Wednesday for
Dense Fog Advisory until midnight CST tonight for WIZ046-047-051-
LM...Dense Fog Advisory until midnight CST tonight for LMZ643>646.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM CST Thursday
TONIGHT/Wednesday AND AVIATION/MARINE...SPM
Wednesday NIGHT THROUGH Tuesday...Hentz