Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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063
FXUS63 KMKX 290140
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
840 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

.UPDATE...

The bulk of the afternoon/early evening convection has died with
the loss of heating. But, there are still some lingering showers
out there as we remain susceptible to the influence of mid level
short wave energy rolling in. There`s a decent thermal trough with
it as well. Subtle lingering outflow boundaries from the earlier
activity are helping to set off some of the weak showers and will
be a threat through the night. Still, pop chances will remain
small as identifying just where things will fire is difficult.
Some of the guidance focuses redevelopment as far north as our nrn
forecast area, others just along the WI/IL state line, some
guidance is dry. But, there is a pronounced lack of any
appreciable CAPE, so not looking at anything widespread. These
small chances will linger into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

It looks like MVFR cigs will be rather persistent at KMSN in the
weak flow and moist atmosphere through later Friday morning.
There are some lower dewpoints pushing in later tonight that may
be productive in lifting conditions to VFR, but confidence is low
with that. Confidence is also challenged across the southeast TAFS
where the MVFR cigs are nearby but should struggle to get into
KMKE and KENW due to a drier northeast breeze there. KUES is at
the edge and they could go either way. Expect VFR cigs everywhere
by about 18z Friday as high pressure starts to take hold.

&&

.MARINE...

Northeast winds of 10 to 15 knots with a few higher gusts will
bring conditions approaching small craft advisory levels due to
waves tonight into Friday morning. Small craft should exercise
caution. Improving conditions are expected later Friday as high
pressure settles south across the region.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 332 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016/

TONIGHT - Confidence...Medium
Focus for shra/tsra has been inverted trough with mid level cyclonic
flow and embedded vorticity maxima. MLCAPE bubbled up in the far
south where sunshine was observed. Expect more of this activity into
the evening as additional upstream mid level energy rides
through.Highest instability and best low level convergence to be
in the southern CWA. NST values are highest into the far southwest
CWA. Otherwise main concern will continue to be heavy rains due to
slow moving nature of this convection.

FRIDAY - Confidence...Medium
Surface/925 flow will increase a bit from the northeast. Mid level
flow remains cyclonic. Main lower level forcing mechanism will shift
further south. The ECMWF and NAM show precip shifting south closer
to the expected better lower level instability and forcing. However
the GFS shows more development across southern WI with a hint of an
inverted trough and the better mid level vorticity. LLVL rh progs
and MOS still not supportive of seeing much clearing given the
cyclonic regime and low level thermal trough. Good deal of cloud
cover upstream as well.

TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY - Forecast Confidence...Medium

Mid level to surface troughing will be lingering over southern
Wisconsin which could lead to a few spotty rain showers. There is
some skinny, elevated instability that could lead to some
thunderstorms, so have not pulled that from the forecast yet. The
wind field still looks very light from the surface on up through
the mid levels, so severe weather is not looking likely due to the
lower instability levels. Rain shower chances in the afternoon
Saturday may be able to be dropped as we get closer to then as it
appears that the mid level trough may be off to the east by then
with a ridge of high pressure settling in.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY - Forecast Confidence...Medium to low

A gradual warming trend is expected for next week as the ridge of
high pressure drifts to the east. We start to get back into the
ring of fire pattern on Tuesday as low pressure approaches from
the west and the leading axis of low level moisture transport
noses in from the south and angles into the region. Confidence in
the warming trend is medium due to the potential for an MCS to
cool things down via outflow/cloud cover and the confidence is low
regarding when a potential MCS/WAA convection would occur. Trends
will have to be monitored going into next week.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...Post frontal stratus fairly widespread
across srn WI. This is largely of the MVFR category however there
are pockets of IFR close to Lake Michigan. Convection will
continue across southern WI in proximity to inverted trough and
midlevel energy rotating through. SREF prog suggests the IFR
conditions becomes less likely tonight however the NAM MOS lingers
this a bit longer. Cloud cover not showing much sign of eroding
overall. More shra/tsra possible on Friday though some model
differences on coverage. Expect better instability and convergence
to shift a bit further south.

MARINE...Winds and waves expected to remain just below small craft
criteria however the flow will be onshore into from the northeast
into Friday. Small craft should continue to exercise caution.
Thunderstorms likely to affect waters especially south of Wind
Point through early this evening.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
TONIGHT/Friday AND AVIATION/MARINE...Collar
Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday...Halbach



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