Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KMKX 212012
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
312 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY
EARLY EVENING AND REMAIN THAT WAY INTO MONDAY. KEPT SOME PATCHY FOG
GOING TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR IN THE EAST WHERE WINDS WILL BE A BIT
HIGHER. NOT SOLD ON FOG MOST PLACES THOUGH...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
PRETTY DRY. BEST CHANCE IS IN THE WEST TOWARD THE APPROACHING
HIGH...PARTICULARLY IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY.

IT WILL BE A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW
40S EXPECTED. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RECOVER TO JUST A COUPLE DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AS
UPPER JET ARCS WELL INTO CANADA. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TURN SOUTH AS
LARGE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD SLIDES EAST AND EXPANDS TO COVER ALMOST THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. BY 12Z WED.

MODELS EVEN DRIER WITH 500 MB SHORT WAVE THAT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH MOST OF THE
STATE REMAINING DRY...AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE FAR NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY.

925 MB TEMPERATURES SLOWLY  MODIFY UPWARD...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S EAST TO LOWER 70S WEST TUESDAY...WITH LOW TO MID 70S
WEDNESDAY...STAYING A BIT COOLER ALONG THE LAKE WITH MORE OF A SE
WIND.

LOWS COOL INTO THE MID 40S AWAY FROM THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
MID-UPPER 40S TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PATCHY FOG...WITH AREAS OF FOG
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND RURAL LOW SPOTS BOTH NIGHTS...WITH BETTER
COVERAGE POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
PROVIDING LITTLE MIXING AT TOP OF NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
HIGH.

QUIET...PLEASANT WEATHER AS RIDGING HOLDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A PERSISTENT BUT DRY SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE EASTERN SURFACE HIGH
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. VERY SLIGHT UPWARD MODIFICATION OF
TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...AND LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL THEN TURN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE IS IN THE
WEST...PARTICULARLY IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY. NOT HIGH
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT LOWER VSBYS IN ANY TAFS THOUGH.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.MARINE...

WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 09Z EXPIRATION TIME
TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS WILL FALL BELOW CRITERIA EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT SOME HIGHER WAVES WILL LINGER INTO THE NIGHT. THE
HIGHEST WAVES WILL LIKELY BE TOWARD OPEN WATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...REM



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.