Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 162107
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
307 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

THE FIRST OF SEVERAL ARCTIC SURGES FOR THE WEEK AHEAD HAS PUSHED
INTO WEST CENTRAL MN AT MID AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BE EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE FA BY MIDNIGHT. STRONG NW WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT AND WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MN RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF
WIND GUSTS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30 KNOT RANGE THIS EVENING IN
THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DIMINISHING TREND ON THE HIGH
END GUSTS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WEAKEN. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY...LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND DEEPEN WITH WINDS AT THE TOP
OF THE MOMENTUM CHANNEL COMING BACK IN THE HIGH 30 KNOT RANGE FROM
APPLETON TO FAIRMONT. CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL
OCCUR DUE TO THE FRESHLY FALLEN SNOW FROM WEST CENTRAL THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL MN TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN REMAINS
BETWEEN REDWOOD FALLS AND FAIRMONT ON MONDAY WHERE 6 TO 8 HOURS OF
WINDS SUSTAINED NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 35 TO 40 KNOTS COULD
CAUSE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES. NEW SNOW IN
THESE AREAS WAS IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE. WATCHING WINDS OF THIS
CALIBER THIS AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL SD ON TOP OF SEVERAL INCHES OF
FRESH SNOW HAS ONLY LOWERED VISIBILITIES INTO THE 1 TO 2 MILE
RANGE. HENCE...KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN PLACE BUT
STARTED THE WEST CENTRAL MN SECTION AT 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH EXTENDING IT SOUTH THROUGH FAIRMONT. THE SECOND ADVISORY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN NOW STARTS AT 3 AM MONDAY MORNING.

WEATHERWISE...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND MONDAY
WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS CENTRAL MN THROUGH WEST CENTRAL
WI. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION WITH ONLY A FEW TENTHS
FORECAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY FROM NEAR 12 IN THE MINNESOTA RIVER
VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON NORTH
AND EAST. WIND CHILL VALUES TO START THE MORNING ON MONDAY WILL BE
FROM 10 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

MAIN CONCERN OVER THE LONG RANGE PERIOD REMAINS THE TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
OTHERWISE...A FEW BOUTS OF SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED UNDER THE
LARGE TROUGH THAT WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. EC/GFS STILL INDICATE A FLATTENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL ALLOW US TO BREAK OUT OF THE ARCTIC
AIR...BUT TEMPERATURES STILL MAY NOT QUITE RETURN TO NORMALS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

BY MONDAY EVENING...THE FIRST PLUNGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL HAVE
OVERTAKEN THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AFTER DARK. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW BUT NOT AS BAD AS EARLIER IN THE DAY MONDAY. 850H
TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT -18C ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.  LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO DIP BELOW ZERO WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES
DESPITE WINDS IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE ALL NIGHT.  WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL FALL QUITE LOW BY MORNING...WITH THE COLDEST READINGS OF ABOUT
-20 ACROSS WESTERN MN. THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE FA COULD SEE
SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE VERY COLD AIR MASS COMBINED
WITH THE SNOW COVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...TUESDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS.

WE`LL GET A SLIGHT MODERATION TO THE ARCTIC AIR MASS TUESDAY NIGHT.
WITH IT COMES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES DUE TO THE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS MODERATION WILL
NOT LAST LONG HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER PIECE OF ARCTIC AIR /WHICH WILL
BREAK OFF FROM THE NORTH POLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY/ RACES
SOUTHWARD AND PUSHES IN TO OUR REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS ONE DOESN`T
LOOK QUITE AS COLD AS THE EARLY WEEK SURGE BUT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THIS AIR MASS
WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL KEEP HIGHS SUPPRESSED WELL BELOW
FREEZING.  FOR NEXT WEEKEND...THE MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IS STILL
BEING FORECAST BY THE EC AND GFS...SO IN GENERAL MODERATION
EXPECTED.  CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S WHICH
IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EVEN WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THE AIR WILL HAVE TO CROSS A FAIRLY
LARGE AREA OF SNOW COVER TO REACH US...SO NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT THE
POTENTIAL TO TOP 40 DEGREES AT THIS TIME. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING...
BOTH THE GFS AND EC HAVE INDICATED A CYCLONE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
NATIONS MID SECTION NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM IS MUCH TOO FAR AWAY
AND A LOT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT EXISTS TO TALK SPECIFICS BUT WILL
MONITOR HOW THIS PROGRESSES WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

TWO CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD AHEAD. THE FIRST IS THE EXTENT OF THE
MVFR CEILINGS PROGGED INTO THE TAF SITES IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT TO OUR WEST AND THE SECOND IS HOW MUCH OF A VISIBILITY
REDUCTION WILL RESULT WITH THE BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

AT TAF ISSUANCE THE ARCTIC FRONT STRETCHED FROM KGFK TO KPIR. IT
WILL PASS KAXN AROUND 20Z...THE TWIN CITIES AROUND 00Z AND KEAU
AFTER 03Z. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH BKN-OVC040-060 COMMON. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...MVFR
CEILINGS ARE NOT REAL WIDESPREAD AT THIS POINT AND REALLY DO NOT
BECOME WIDESPREAD UNTIL YOUR NORTH OF THE US/ND BORDER. SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE IS ALSO BACKING OFF BY A FEW HOURS. THEREFORE...DELAYED
THE ONSET OF THE MVFR CEILINGS BY A FEW HOURS OVER THE PREVIOUS
SET WHICH MATCHES PRETTY WELL THE LOW LEVEL SATURATION SEEN IN THE
NAM BUFKIT PROFILES.

WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OUT OF THE WNW FOR A FEW HOURS
BEHIND THE FRONT BUT DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL CAA LAPSE RATES WEAKEN
WHICH DOES NOT ALLOW FOR VERY DEEP MIXING. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS
DURING THE NIGHT...IT THEN BECOMES A VERY DIFFERENT STORY WITH 20
TO 25 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS FROM KAXN TO KRWF ON SE WITH TOP OF THE
CHANNEL HITTING 35-40 KNOTS. KRWF IS MOST PRONE FOR LIFR IN BLOWING
SNOW FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FOR NOW INDICATED A TEMPO OF
1/2SM BLSN VV007 AFTER 14Z.

KMSP...MAIN CHANGE OVER THE PREVIOUS TAF WAS TO DELAY THE
PREDOMINATE MVFR CEILINGS UNTIL 06Z. BRISK SW WIND THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER WNW EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC
FRONT. QUITE WINDY ON MONDAY WITH NW WINDS GUSTING NEAR 30 KNOTS.
SOME BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED AS WELL AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 12 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 15G20 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ067-
     075-076-083>085-092-093.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ041-047-048-
     054>057-064-065-073-074-082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...RAH










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