Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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736
FXUS63 KMPX 021816
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
116 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

BAGGY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL YIELD A DRY DAY...ALONG
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND NEAR NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BE
JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DIPPING TOWARD DEWPOINTS IN
THE 30S...AND GENERALLY EXPECT LOW/MID 40S TO BE COMMON...THUS
LIMITING THREAT FOR FROST. SPEAKING OF DEWPOINTS...ANTICIPATED
READINGS TO DECLINE LOWER THAN NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DEPICTS SIMILAR
TO WHAT HAPPENED SUNDAY. THIS WILL MEAN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL LOWER TOWARD 25 PERCENT. THANKFULLY WINDS WILL ONLY BE
AROUND 5KTS OR LESS...SO THAT WILL MINIMIZE THE THREAT FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK ACROSS THE REGION.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHERE SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE EAST OF I-35...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN WI. THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK WILL BE DRY...AND CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS HIGH UP
UNTO THIS POINT. MEANWHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A LOT OF MOVING PARTS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT WEST...WHICH WILL LEAD TO
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
HOWEVER LATE TUESDAY A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN WI. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INSTABILITY SO SHOULD HAVE
ENOUGH DEPTH IN THE CUMULUS FIELD TO GET SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING.

ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE WILL BE
THE DOMINATE SYNOPTIC FEATURE...WHICH WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES AND
DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 FOR THURSDAY...AND APPROACHING 80 ON
FRIDAY.

BY  FRIDAY EVENING ANOTHER LARGE CUTOFF LOW WILL HAVE FORMED OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS
CANADA WILL DRIVE A SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
FORECAST GUIDANCE VARIES CONSIDERABLY ON HOW THESE WEATHER FEATURES
WILL EVOLVE OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THAT WILL
ACCOMPANY THEN. THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT...TOGETHER WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE
CUTOFF LOW. EVENTUALLY THE CUTOFF LOW WILL LIFT THE LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...AND THIS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DID NOT STRAY FROM THE BLENDED
GUIDANCE...BUT ENVISION THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH FAIRLY DRY ON
SATURDAY...WITH A SLOWER, MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION OF THE CUTOFF
LOW...AND DELAYED NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THRU DAYBREAK TMRW
MRNG. A CDFNT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL STEADILY INCREASE HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW BUT ANY PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
FOCUSED ON EASTERN MN INTO WESTERN MN...WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
18Z TMRW AFTN. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE W AND NW TO NEAR
15G25KT TMRW...PARTICULARLY WITH THE FROPA.

KMSP...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON VFR THROUGH MIDDAY TMRW. CHANCES
DIMINISH TMRW AFTN AND EVE AS -SHRA...POSSIBLY -TSRA...DRIFT IN
FROM THE N AND E AFTER 18Z TMRW. CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE UP IN THE
40-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR LATE TMRW AFTN SO HAVE OPTED TO GO THE
-SHRA ROUTE RATHER THAN VCSH. CHANCES FOR TSTMS ARE LOW...ONLY
AROUND 20 PERCENT. HAVE KEPT VFR CONDS DURING THE TIME FOR PRECIP
BUT THAT COULD EASILY DROP INTO MVFR OR IFR RANGE SHOULD A DECENT
STORM MOVE OVER THE FIELD...TOO EARLY TO MAKE THAT CALL ATTM.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND NNW AT 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND SW 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JPC



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