Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 170425

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1125 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

A narrow band of sprinkles has just formed from St Cloud to the
Twin Cities and Faribault and is headed east. Another band will
develop to the west of this initial, weak band which will expand
in intensity and areal coverage late tonight over Wisconsin. Low
level moisture is increasing, but will remain meager for much
meaningful precipitation. It will even take a while to develop
lower level clouds. As this band heads east, it will encounter
drier and cooler air and may be mainly snow until warmer air aloft
moves in later this evening. At that point precip may turn to
rain or freezing rain, depending on the thermal profile. Due to
the light amounts and the possibility of precip becoming plain
rain, decided against an advisory for now but travel problems
could result if it is predominately freezing rain.

The front will swing through late tonight with gusty west winds
developing for Friday. Decent low level lapse rates should allow
for gusts of 30-35 kt by afternoon. Believe models are overdone on
low level moisture, particularly given the mixing, so will
continue with a partly cloudy forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

The longer term concerns remain the warm up for the weekend
followed by the temperature moderation through midweek and
potential of a significant storm system affecting the central and
northern plains by later next week.

Initially we have colder air filtering in behind the departing
cold front into Friday night on gusty northwest winds. This should
provide for somewhat cooler readings into Saturday...close to
normal. Then the next trough moves east across the Dakotas and
into Minnesota later Sunday and Sunday night...providing
increasing southeast/south winds and much warmer air. With most
deterministic models showing H85 temepratures from +8 to +12c
across the CWA Sunday afternoon as the surface front moves in.
This should yield/mix out to at least 50s for much of the
area...especially if the snow cover over the southern CWA is
negligible/gone by then. We may see lower 60s to the southwest.

This system moves through with only minor cooling behind...and a
small chance of showers/light mix Sunday night. Cooler
temperatures are expected into midweek out ahead of the next
significant western CONUS trough which moves ashore around
midweek. This will provide rising heights and overall warming
trend by the end of the week. The deterministic models lift a
closed circulation northeast affecting the region later Wednesday
and Thursday. At present...cyclogenesis is forecast to occur over
western Kansas by early Thursday...eventually lifting northeast
toward the Great Lakes with the upper low. It is too early too say
for certain what the eventual track will be...but models suggest
we will start out warm enough for rain/showers for most of the


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Precip will move out of western around 12z. Still anticipate rain
to be the primary type at EAU, as continued warm advection will
help warm the air aloft as well, melting any snow/sleet before it
reaches the ground. As has been mentioned numerous times, models
have been way to overdone on amount low level moisture ahead of
the front, and expect only EAU, who will see the longest precip
duration, to moisten enough to get MVFR cigs ahead of the front.
Where low level moisture is not being overdone is behind the
front. There are MVFR/IFR cigs over eastern ND and LIFR/IFR
dropping out of Canada. Both of these feature are picked up well
by the HRRR, so followed the HRRR for bringing these cigs in to
terminals behind the front. For now, kept cigs MVFR, but some IFR
cigs will be possible over central MN.

KMSP...Confidence is high in VFR conditions remaining ahead of the
front. Behind the front, confidence is increasing in at least MVFR
cigs coming, though they could be lower than what we have. These
cigs may improve faster than we have as well.

Sat...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kt.
Sun...Chc MVFR in afternoon. Wind S at 15g25kt.
Mon...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kt.




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