Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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893
FXUS63 KMPX 261139 AAA
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
639 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms continue early this morning
in a continued very warm and moist airmass within a corridor of
pwats around 2 inches stretching from southwest MN to northwest
Wisconsin. This corridor of deep moisture will sag south gradually
this morning with high pressure building into the northern
Plains. The best forcing will be confined to areas well to the
south associated with the LLJ currently over southeast Nebraska.
This LLJ will shift eastward today, facilitating training activity
and torrential rain totals south of I-80. There is little forcing
in our area that will provide focus for more organized activity
through the day, so expect continued periods of showers and
embedded thunderstorms across south central MN into west central
WI at least during the morning hours.

Clearing skies will follow the front with much drier air arriving
by this evening. Clear skies and light winds tonight could allow
for some fog formation with crossover temperatures being exceeded
by several degrees. There may be a bit too much wind aloft for
widespread fog, however.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

No changes from the previous forecast other than to taper off pops
with the forecast trending drier and drier for the weekend and into
early next week. No significant weather is expected in the form of
severe storms, heavy rain, or extreme heat. The GFS tries to keep a
boundary in place a cross the region and develop convection, but the
ECMWF is much drier and feel that scenario will play out in the
extended part of the forecast.

Northwest flow will develop over the central Conus. Friday and
Saturday look outstanding for those that like sunny skies, light
winds, lower humidity, and highs in the lower 80s. On Sunday a
weakening frontal boundary will move across the Dakotas and moisture
will pool along it leading to a few hundred to a thousand J/kg of
MUCAPE. There is not much forcing with this front, so not expecting
widespread convection, but there is still about a 20 percent chance
of seeing some precip an any particular location.

Looking ahead, as mentioned above the GFS lifts this boundary back
northward and keeps chances for showers and thunderstorms across
much of the area for next week. Can`t rule out the GFS, but at this
time prefer the drier solution of the ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Generally, VFR conditions with cigs AOA 10kft outside of showers
and thunderstorms. There could be brief instances of MVFR cigs
immediately following showers/storms this morning. Showers will
focus mainly from south central MN to western WI this morning, but
a few showers could develop further north. Therefore, kept a VCSH
this morning in all taf locations except AXN/STC.

KMSP...A few passing showers this morning, otherwise high based
cigs expected for much of the day followed by clearing this
evening. Cannot discount a few MVFR cigs this morning, but this
would be brief.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind E 5 kts.
Sat...VFR. Wind S 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...BORGHOFF



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