Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 050334 AAB
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
934 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 934 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2017

Blizzard conditions are occurring along the MN river this evening.
New Ulm recently gusted to 58 mph with 1/4 mile visibility. There
have been several other reports of 50 mph gusts over the past
couple hours. The snow is not expected to last long enough to
warrant an upgrade to a Blizzard Warning, with the back edge of
the snow already approaching Redwood Falls.

A well developed deformation band of snow is rotating eastward
across Minnesota. Increased snow totals across eastern MN and
western WI per latest trends. The HRRR has been advertising
greater than 4 inches from the metro northeastward, which isn`t
impossible, but it would need to snow faster than an inch per hour
in order for that to occur. The better bet is for 2 to 3 inches.
Travel conditions are treacherous where temperatures have fallen
below freezing. Deteriorating road conditions can be expected to
spread eastward as the evening progresses.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2017

The main change to the short term involved attempting to capture
the potential for an enhanced (narrow) band of snowfall over
central MN where favorable dendritic growth zone intersects
impressive omega as an impressive pocket of PV advection lifts
across east central MN and west central WI this evening. Did
increase snowfall ratios as well. All these factors considered led
to most locations west of I-35 (with the exception of along I-90)
having the potential for 2-3+ inches of snow falling in a
relatively short period of time, creating reduced visibilities and
slippery roads. Therefore transitioned much of central/west
central MN and a small portion of west central WI that was in a
wind advisory to a winter weather advisory...to better capture all
anticipated impacts. We also look to have some upright
instability so thundersnow will be possible this evening as well,
which could also enhance amounts.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 313 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2017

Very few changes were made in the long term forecast period.
Northerly flow will prevail, which will mean the door will open
for cold air to move in from Canada. Temperatures through the
weekend will generally range around 5-10 degrees below normal.
Occasional shortwaves will clip the region, but little to no
attendant moisture and their quick- moving nature will limit
snowfall potential.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 614 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2017

Generally IFR conditions are in place, with rain advancing
northeast from south central MN and snow across western MN. The
precip will transition to snow from west to east this evening with
periods of moderate snow (1/2SM vis) possible. The snow should end
about 4 or 5 hours after its onset. Strong northwest winds
expected tonight with some gusts to 45 kts possible, especially
across western MN.

KMSP...Rain will become steady within the hour, then transition to
snow between 02-03Z. Visibility may drop to LIFR levels and
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25kts.
Thu...VFR. MVFR possible late with Chc -SN.Wind NW 5-10kts.
Fri...VFR. MVFR possible early with Slgt Chc -SN. Wind NW 5-10kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM CST Tuesday for WIZ014>016-
     023.

     Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for WIZ024>028.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM CST Tuesday for MNZ043>045-
     049>053-057>063-065>070-073>077-082>084-091-092.

     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MNZ041-
     042-048.

     Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for MNZ047-
     054>056-064.

     Wind Advisory until 4 AM CST Tuesday for MNZ078-085-093.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...BORGHOFF



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