Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 270002
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
702 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE THE MOVEMENT OF THE IOWA UPPER LOW AND
THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SOME CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT AS WEAK 85H WAA
CONTINUES TO LIFT OVER THE AREA. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY TO
THE WEST.  STILL COULD SEE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLE TO THE FAR
EAST...IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE RETREATING SURFACE HIGH.  OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST AFFECTING
MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH MLCAPE INCREASING
TO 1000-1500 J/KG OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MN FOR THE AFTERNOON.  WILL
MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER THIS AREA. MEAGER FORCING HOWEVER SHOULD
LIMIT OVERALL DEVELOPMENT.  VARIOUS CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
ECHOES DEVELOPING DURING PEAK HEATING. SMALL POPS REMAIN WARRANTED
FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM THROUGH THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

THE PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
RELATE TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN UNFOLDING.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER-WISE AS
THE AREA REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE
AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND HIGHS FROM 75 TO
80 DEGREES.

ON MONDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SAGS INTO CENTRAL MN AND WEST
CENTRAL WI. FORCING AND LAYER MOISTURE APPEAR JUST SUFFICIENT TO
WARRANT 20-30 POPS NORTH AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 94
CORRIDOR...JUST SCRAPING THE TWIN CITIES ON THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN
EDGE.

THE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY TIME FRAME LOOKS TO PROVIDE A BRIEF
RESPITE FROM PRECIPITATION AS RIDGING PREVAILS LOCALLY.

TUESDAY BRINGS THE ARRIVAL OF A NEARLY STACKED SYSTEM TO THE
DAKOTAS AND NORTHWESTERN MN. WHILE AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE 26.12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUITE APPARENT...BOTH MODELS FEATURE
A BAND OF DECENT FORCING AND LAYER MOISTURE WISPING ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED HIGH CHANCE POPS
FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES NOTABLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH STILL
NOTED...PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD TO HOW NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAMS PHASE. HAVE INCLUDED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
NEXT WEEK UNTIL REFINEMENT CAN HAPPEN WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

SCATTERED CU FIELD HAS MAINLY DISSIPATED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...THOUGH
A FEW CLOUDS AT 5-6K FT REMAIN IN SOUTHERN MN AND WILL DRIFT
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. SE WIND FROM 5-10 KT WILL PREVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT MOST TERMINALS...AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
ONE EXCEPTION COULD BE EAU...WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND PATCHY
FOG COULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 07-12Z SAT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15
KT AT MOST TERMINALS BETWEEN 18Z-00Z...WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE AT AXN AND RWF. A CHANCE OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA EXISTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTHWARD INTO MN...BUT
PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

KMSP...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH FEW CLOUDS 5-6K FT
OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO SCT AROUND 5-6K FT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXISTS AFTER 18Z SATURDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT NIGHT...VFR. ISOLD SHRA EARLY. WINDS SSE 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS S AT 10KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS BCMG 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...ADL






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