Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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029
FXUS63 KMPX 131113
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
513 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE MORNING WIND CHILL HEADLINES AND
SNOW HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER WESTERN MN WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST DURING THE
DAY.  WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OR BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER MUCH
OF THE WEST AND WILL TREND THAT WAY INTO THE MORNING EAST. WIND
CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRES AT 8 AM...AND IS ONLY MARGINAL OVER
WESTERN CENTRAL WI. WILL LET IT RIDE FOR NOW.

THE CONCERN SHIFTS TO SNOW POTENTIAL DEVELOPING TONIGHT OVER MAINLY
THE MN PORTION OF THE CWA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TROUGH MOVING
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING...DIVING TO THE SOUTHEAST
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THIS SPREADS A SHOT OF
SNOW INTO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING AND TO THE WISCONSIN
BORDER THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. FORCING MAXIMIZES TO THE SOUTHWEST BY 06Z
SUNDAY AND THEN SHIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.  THE UPPER TROUGH
SWINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN THROUGH SUNDAY...SO IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW. TREND OF THE SREF
AND SOME DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE MAIN SNOW AXIS A BIT
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.  HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS CONTINUED ITS MORE
NORTHERN TRACK...FOCUSING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MINNESOTA RIVER
VALLEY. THE 03Z SREF INDICATED SOME MID RANGE PROBABILITIES FOR 1
INCH AN HOUR SNOWFALL RATES OVER THE FAR SOUTH AS WELL...WHERE THE
DGZ WAS MAXIMIZED.  WE SHOULD SEE AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW FALL OVER
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO FARTHER
EAST INTO EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A SOUTHEAST WIND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
IN...AND DOESNT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS. WE WILL SEE LOWER VSBYS AS THE SNOW DEVELOPS AND
DRIFTING SNOW IS A GOOD BET AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.  WE DID
DROP A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ON MUCH OF THIS REGION FOR TONIGHT
AND PART OF SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE SNOW WILL BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...BUT BY MID MORNING THE FORCING WEAKENS FURTHER AND SNOW
SHOULD BE ON THE DIMINISHING TREND WITH ONLY A CHANCE OF SNOW BY
EVENING. ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN SPOTS SUNDAY.

AFTER A DRY MONDAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH CONTINUES TO ALSO
SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. IT IS BECOMING MORE
AND MORE UNLIKELY WE WILL SEE MUCH WITH THIS ONE AS IT TRACKS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI BY
EARLY TUESDAY. THE BAND OF SNOW IS FAVORING THE WFO FSD AREA...NOT
UNUSUAL THIS SEASON WITH THE CITY OF SIOUX FALLS SEEING ALMOST
TWICE AS MUCH SNOW AS THE STC/MSP/EAU CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH BEHIND THAT SYSTEM FOR MIDWEEK WITH
A SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY FOR LATE WEEK AS THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST SHIFTS EAST TO THE CENTRAL U.S. A LARGE
SYSTEM PUSHING ONSHORE THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND TRACKING
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL DRAW MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 80
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH SNOWPACK MODIFYING THAT AIRMASS QUICKLY
FURTHER NORTH. THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN IS NOT TOO ANOMALOUS
WITH THE GULF BEING MODIFIED BY A FEW PRECEDING COLD FRONTS...
BUT IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND
PERHAPS ADVECTION FOG OVER THE SNOWPACK FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE
INCREASED TO AROUND 40...WHICH SHOULD NOT BE TOO DIFFICULT TO
ACHIEVE CONSIDERING WE WERE IN THE 40S SHORTLY AFTER THE LAST
WINTER STORM 11 DAYS AGO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

GENERALLY SKC TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
WITH LOWERING CIG TO MVFR BY 02Z-03Z WEST. EXPECT -SN TO DEVELOP
AS WELL...WITH VSBYS DROPPING BELOW 1SM AT KRWF. CIGS BECOMING
MVFR TO EASTERN MN SITES BY 12Z SUN. LATER INTO WEST CENTRAL WI.
WINDS LGT/VRBL BECOMING SE WITH SURFACE RIDGE PASSAGE. WILL LIKELY
SEE GUSTS TO 20-25KTS OVER THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME BLSN AS WELL.

KMSP...
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. SHOULD SEE MVFR
CIGS -SN DEVELOP AFTER 09Z. COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO ACCUMULATION
THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT SE WINDS TO BECOME ESTABLISHED AFTER 18Z
AND BECOMING GUSTY SUNDAY MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN NIGHT...MVFR WITH CHC -SN. WIND SSE 15 KT.
MON...MVFR/VFR CIGS. WIND W 10 KT.
TUE...MVFR/VFR WITH -SN POSSIBLE. WIND NW 10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ014>016-
     023>028.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR MNZ047-054>057-064-065-067-073>076-082>085-
     091>093.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ074>078-
     082>085-091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...DWE



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