Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 061209
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
709 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE IN PROGRESS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL MN THROUGH THE SOUTH/EAST METRO AND INTO WEST CENTRAL WI.
RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN AROUND 2 INCHES AN HOUR OVERNIGHT IN THE
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY. AREAS FROM NEW ULM THROUGH THE SOUTH METRO AND
WESTERN WI ARE ON THEIR THIRD ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN. HENCE...WE
EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLIER THIS MORNING TO GO WELL
INTO WESTERN WI AS WELL AS GOODHUE COUNTY IN SE MN THROUGH 1 PM.
SOME COUNTIES IN CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL MN WERE REMOVED AS THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALONG AND SE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
STRETCHES FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEST METRO TO SIOUX
FALLS. TWO MCV/S ARE NOTED IN THE RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHERN MN
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ONE CURRENTLY NEAR THE SOUTH
METRO...WITH A VERY IMPRESSIVE ONE NEAR KFSD.

GOING FORWARD THIS MORNING...THE HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS WILL SINK
SLOWLY SOUTH. THE 00Z CAMS AND HRRR RUNS HAVE NOT HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY AS THEY HAVE BEEN TOO FAR NORTH AND A
LITTLE SLOW. INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z RUN OF THE NSSL WRF HAS A
BETTER DEPICTION AT 09Z THIS MORNING (21 HOUR FCST). TO THE REAR
OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS A LARGE MAINLY STRATIFORM AREA OF
RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDER THAT WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA TODAY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE.
CATEGORICAL POPS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A DIMINISHING TREND DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THREAT FOR RENEWED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL TAKE OFF JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FA.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD IN WITH CLEARING SKIES
ALONG WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.
HOWEVER...WITH THE INCOMING HIGH IS MORE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
NOAA AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE SMOKE COMING INTO
OUR MN CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT IT/S
THICK ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THINKING DURING THE EXTENDED...WITH COOL
AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MID-WEEK EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO THE
RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THIS WEEKEND.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A CANADIAN HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING COMFORTABLY BACK INTO THE 40S. H85
TEMPS WILL BE BACK UNDER 10C...WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S...WHILE THOSE LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW MORNING LOWS TO DROP
BACK INTO THE 40S/50S. THE ONLY DRAWBACK TO THE WEATHER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IS THAT THIS CANADIAN HIGH WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SMOKE WITH IT. THIS COULD FIND ITS WAY TO THE SFC...BUT IT/S TOO
EARLY TO TELL IF THIS WILL GIVE US NOTHING MORE THAN A MILK COLORED
SKY...OR WILL BE ABLE TO REDUCE THE VISIBILITY AND LEAD TO POOR AIR
QUALITY AGAIN.

NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A WARM FRONT AND
TROPICAL AIR MAKE THEIR RETURN. THIS WARM FRONT WILL BE COMING NORTH
IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS NUDGING NORTH INTO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP OVER/NEAR OUR AREA
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. H85 TEMPS ALSO LOOK TO WARM INTO
THE MID 20S C...WHICH WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE 90S.
HOWEVER...WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AND CLOUD COVER...KEPT
FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S GOING...BUT IF WE DON/T HAVE
CONVECTION LITTERING THE LANDSCAPE MUCH THIS WEEKEND...OUR CURRENT
FORECAST HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND ARE LIKELY A GOOD 5 DEGREES TO COLD.

BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT CERTAINLY BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
HINTING A SIGNIFICANT HEAT WAVE BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THE
MIDDLE OF JULY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 709 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY
EAST THIS MORNING...CLEARING KEAU AROUND 19Z. MOST OF THE
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOW EAST OF KEAU WITH EXTENSIVE SHOWERS
THROUGH THE MORNING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH WEST CENTRAL WI.
MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING FROM
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL MN AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. IFR/LOW MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY THIS EVENING. MVFR VSBYS WILL BE COMMON IN
THE SHOWERS AS WELL. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15G25KTS FOR THE AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

KMSP...CEILINGS DETERIORATING TO LOW MVFR/IFR THIS MORNING AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. SHRA WILL
BE COMMON THROUGH THE MORNING WITH AN ISOLATED TSRA STILL
POSSIBLE. MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING VFR BY LATE
AFTERNOON. NNW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE...VFR. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ051>053-
     058>063-065>070-073>078-082>084-091-092.

WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ014-015-
     023>025.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...RAH


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