Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 252346
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
646 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 407 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Clouds will last through the weekend. Temperatures will be mild
overnight, but cooler during that day with little diurnal swing
expected due to the aforementioned overcast skies. Northeast winds
will gradually become more northerly.

Early afternoon GOES 16 satellite imagery together with RAP13
heights and radar reflectivity showed an area of clouds across the
entire central US, with an east/west band of precip extending from
northern Iowa through Maine. The upper level associated with this
storm will slowly oscillate northeast, and light precipitation will
lift northward across I-90 and eventually I-94. Low temperatures
should be above 32 at most locations, so expect only rain and
drizzle with amounts ranging from a trace to a hundredths of an
inch. Precipitation chances will gradually end from west to east on
Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 407 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

A low confidence split flow pattern will persist throughout the
long term, with model consistency the main concern with respect to
PoPs and therefore temperatures late next week.

The upper low moving slowly across the center of the country will
exit to the east Sunday night and the second one on its heels will
remain well to the south early week. As the cyclonic flow finally
eases late Monday, clouds will be on a decreasing trend although
broken fair wx cu and some mid level clouds may continue through
the day. This may keep temperatures tempered somewhat from what
they may otherwise be.

With more sun Tuesday, we should be able to reach the mid to upper
50s in most locations. ECMWF is the warmest guidance in the lower
60s. With another approaching trough out west, we should see
heights increase nicely Tuesday and the most sun we`ve had in a
while.

GFS and ECMWF diverge for late week in the handling of the western
trough. GFS still cuts it off from the northerly flow resulting in
a flatter, further south solution and keeping our region dry. It
has the support of nearly all of its ensemble members. Given this
type of pattern and a tendency for these systems to trend further
south with time recently, this is a fairly likely solution. The
ECMWF, however, continues to advertise a more influential northern
flow which picks the system up and brings it into the Great
Lakes. Unfortunately, the sensible weather differences between the
solutions are rather stark, with mainly sunny and mild on the GFS
versus precip, temperatures in the 30s or low 40s, and extensive
cloud cover on the ECMWF. Not an unusual occurrence this time of
year to see big temperature differences in areas of stratus/precip/
diabatic cooling vs. clear skies. Continued with the chc PoPs for
now and took a middle of the road solution on temperatures which
resulted in predominately rain in the wx grids. With temps near
freezing through the column though, there may be some snow mixed
in with the colder surface temps if things trend in the direction
of the EC.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Ceilings will gradually lower through the MVFR range this evening
into IFR range overnight through much of the day tomorrow. There
is some potential for LIFR ceilings from time to time during the
day tomorrow. Visibilities are not expected to drop as much,
likely getting as low as 3-4SM. However, should there be more -DZ
rather than -RA, then the potential is there for IFR visibilities.
ENE winds to start will steadily back to around N by tomorrow
evening with speeds in the 5-10 kt range throughout the period.

KMSP...Will look for ceilings to drop below 1700ft within the
first few hours of the 26/00z TAF. Confidence is rather high that
ceilings will hit IFR by around midnight and will remain there
through at least midday tomorrow. Some improvement is expected
tomorrow afternoon but ceilings are expected to remain below
1700ft into the evening hours.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Mon...MVFR early, then VFR. Wind N 5 kts.
Tue...VFR. Wind NE 5 kts.
Wed...VFR. Wind SE at 10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JPC



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