Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 261827
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
127 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING...AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
MIDWEST WITH A SURFACE LOW IN KANSAS HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN MN WAS SEEING SOME SHOWERY ACTIVITY...BUT
THAT ACTIVITY WILL FADE TOWARD AS THE MORNING CONTINUES AND AS THE
TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES SOUTHEAST.

FOR TODAY...THIS SETUP WILL PUT US IN NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH A
CYCLONIC NATURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. WITH STRONG
SURFACE HEATING...AND THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR OUR REGION...WE`LL
HAVE STEEP ENOUGH LAPSE RATES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION TO
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN. HOWEVER...THERE IS NOTHING IN THE WAY OF A
TRIGGER...OR DECENT FORCING TO INITIATE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.
SO...WE STILL EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY MOST LIKELY AS THE COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS WILL BE
VERY LIMITED. ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO INITIATE ARE EXPECTED TO
BE GARDEN VARIETY. CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES ARE LIMITED.
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING AS WE LOSE OUR
DIURNAL HEATING...AND EXPECT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO BE DRY. MINOR
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO BUMP THE POPS UP TO 25-30% ACROSS
WESTERN WI INTO EASTERN MN AS CAMS INDICATE SCATTERED CONVECTION
THERE THIS AFTERNOON.

WE`LL REMAIN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A DEEPLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...AND A TROUGH TO OUR EAST.  SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT AND REMAIN CONSISTENT FROM WHAT WE`VE
SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS...SO AGAIN EXPECT HIGHS TODAY AROUND 80
DEGREES...WITH LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SAT STARTS WITH AN E-W ORIENTED SHTWV
RIDGE AXIS DROPPING THRU THE REGION WHILE HIGH PRES LINGERS AT THE
SFC. BOTH FEATURES WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE SE WHILE A WEAK SFC CDFNT
ALONG WITH A MODEST SHTWV TROF AXIS MOVE IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA
WITHIN THE MEAN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF A
COMPACT CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING WITHIN THE TROF AXIS...AIDING DEEP
LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SFC FRONT. A SMALL SWATH OF DEEP
MOISTURE WILL MOVE SE ALONG WITH THE FRONT...LEADING TO A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE WFO MPX CWFA SAT NIGHT THRU
SUN. MULTI-LAYERED HEIGHT FALLS WILL AID IN A COLD POOL ALOFT...
WHICH ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND BOUNDARY MERGERS
COULD TAKE ADVANTAGE OF LATE-DAY HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLD STRONG-
TO-SEVERE TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL. OF NOTE IS THE EXPANSION OF THE
MARGINAL RISK INTO THE MPX CWFA IN THE LATEST SWODY2. THE SFC
FRONT WILL SWING THRU THE AREA SUN MRNG WHILE THE SFC LOW EXPANDS
OVER SRN MN AND SWRN WI. THIS WILL HELP KEEP PRECIP GOING FOR AT
LEAST THE ERN HALF OF THE CWFA FOR SUN INTO SUN NIGHT BEFORE CONDS
IMPROVE MON WITH HIGH PRES REASSERTING ITSELF.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL DROP
THRU THE REGION DURG THE DAY ON TUE...BRINGING SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTMS TO THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF ANY IMPRESSIVE
SUPPORT ALOFT LOOKS TO MITIGATE ANY SEVERE WX POTENTIAL PLUS
MOISTURE DEPTH WILL NOT BE ALL THAT GREAT TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF
ANY MAJOR CONSEQUENCE. HIGH PRES THEN RETURNS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...KEEPING MUCH OF THE CWFA DRY. HAVE INCLUDED PRECIP ONCE
AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT THRU THU AS A SLOW-MOVING SFC FRONT LOOKS TO
DROP INTO THE REGION FROM S-CENTRAL CANADA...BUT THE QUASI-STNRY
NATURE OF THIS FRONT LOOKS TO KEEP PRECIP IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH
OF THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SCARCE SO DID
NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS OTHER THAN VCSH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH A WESTERLY DIRECTION
TOMORROW.

KMSP...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT NGT...VFR WITH SHRA/TSRA LIKELY. SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR WITH SHRA/TSRA EARLY. SW WINDS BCMG NW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR WITH -SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS NNW 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB



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