Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 160014
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
714 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions are possible Saturday and
  Sunday across western Minnesota.

- Dry weather persists over the next week.

- Return to cooler, seasonable temperatures this weekend into
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Current satellite highlights a deteriorating layer of stratocumulus
clouds situated over central Minnesota this afternoon. Temperatures
have trended higher over eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin
since they saw a longer period of clear skies. Winds will gradually
shift NW and increase in strength overnight behind the passage of a
surface low to the northeast. This system will bring a chance for
light rain/snow showers to parts of northern Minnesota and
northwestern Wisconsin. Lack of available moisture will be a
limiting factor for an already slim chance of precipitation,
especially the closer to the Twin Cities metro you get.

The main impacts for the southern half of Minnesota and western
Wisconsin will be 1) a drop to cooler, more seasonable temperatures
and 2) widespread winds around 15-20 mph and gusts up to 30-35 mph
Saturday and Sunday. Saturday will have the best shot for higher
wind speeds/gusts as the cold front moves through the area.

An upper level ridge will settle in across the central CONUS early
next week, allowing our temperatures to gradually rebound back into
the upper 40s and low 50s. The dry trend continues, with our next
semblance of significant precipitation coming well into la la land
of forecast models. For what it is worth, the CPC has placed us
within the slight risk of heavy snow during the period of March 22-
26th in response to the signal. Something to keep an eye on...

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 704 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

VFR conditions throughout with breezy westerly winds becoming
more northwest overnight into Saturday. Winds could occasionally
gust near 35 kts at times.

KMSP...VFR conditions throughout with gusty westerly winds this
evening becoming more northwest overnight into Saturday. Winds
could gust near 40 kts at times, but should decrease a bit after
sunset.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G20-25kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 15G25kts.
WED...VFR. Winds NW 10-15kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 354 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

After coordination with MIFC, and WFOs FSD and ABR, decided to
post a Fire Weather Watch Saturday afternoon across western
Minnesota. Despite traditionally marginal RH values around 30
percent, strong winds gusting to 35-40 mph and very dry fuels
will facilitate rapid fire spread should they develop. A similar
situation could develop Sunday despite colder temperatures, but
RH may be a bit drier and winds may be a bit lighter.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for Brown-Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Martin-
     Pope-Redwood-Renville-Stevens-Swift-Watonwan-Yellow
     Medicine.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...JRB
FIRE WEATHER...Borghoff


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