Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44

000
FXUS63 KMPX 141150
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
650 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few showers along I-90 today, most of us end up dry.

- Cooler temperatures incoming as a dry cold front arrives on
  Saturday, with 30s for highs by Sunday. Breezy northwest winds
  over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

A palpable state of envy is an appropriate response as we look at
regional radar and satellite this morning, with a broad area of rain
falling over southern Iowa and northern Missouri. There are a few
showers in southern Minnesota, however our surface dew points
started low enough such that much of it has remained virga thus far,
with further showers only expected along I-90 today. The broad
forcing is evident ahead of a longwave trough stretching over the
western half of the CONUS, with a developing surface low tracking
along the area of weak CVA on the southeastern side. Most of our
area will once again end up skunked as high resolution guidance has
the low tracking to our southeast, resulting in only a few showers
along I-90 today with the majority of the MPX CWA remaining dry. As
the system transitions towards the Great Lakes by late tonight into
early Friday, we will end up within the left entrance region of the
upper level jet, ensuring continued subsidence and dry conditions. A
broad area of high pressure will then develop over the eastern Rocky
Mountains later tomorrow, with skies briefly clearing before pattern
shift will bring about colder temperatures this weekend.

Another surface low develops over central Canada and quickly slides
eastwards to the south of Hudson Bay by Saturday afternoon, dragging
a cold front through the region which will be dry due to low
available moisture, with the main consequence being increasing winds
out of the west to northwest. These winds will begin to bring colder
air to the region, with temperatures dropping into the 20s for low
and mid to upper 30s for highs by Sunday. High pressure looks to
lock this cold air in place through most of Monday and Tuesday
before we see another non-precipitating system slide across the area
giving us yet another airmass change with no moisture. The 7 day
forecast looks remarkably dry especially should we see nothing
today, with long range ensemble guidance showing hints of a trend
towards a more active pattern by the last week of the month.
However, given how the rest of 2024 has gone thus far, I`m not
holding my breath until I see the radar echoes bearing down on us
right as it is happening.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 608 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

VFR conditions expected at all sites through this evening with
ceilings through the daylight hours in the 060-100 range.
Partial clearing is expected overnight but lower clouds are
likely close to daybreak tomorrow, including ceilings in MVFR
range in far western MN, potentially impacting AXN-RWF. NE winds
expected through this evening, with sustained speeds around 10
kts, though at times speeds may reach 15G25kt. Winds will then
back to NW overnight through Friday morning.

KMSP...Main issue will be breezy/gusty winds from the NE. Winds
will generally run 010-030 direction but speeds are expected to
remain below thresholds to force 04 operations. Wind speeds will
settle down and back to N then NW tonight through Friday
morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 15-25G35-40kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 15-20G25-35kts.
MON...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...JPC


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.