Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 022341
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
641 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF NE-SW
ORIENTED HIGH PRES ACRS THE AREA WHILE A VERY COMPACT AND WEAK LOW
PRES CENTER WITH N-S ORIENTED TROF LINGERS OVER THE DAKOTAS.
ALOFT..GENERALLY NNW FLOW WILL KEEP A COOL FLOW OF AIR INTO THE
REGION WITH NO SHORTWAVE EVIDENT AT MULTIPLE LEVELS. THIS FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS TO DRIFT SWD...KEEPING
IT A NON-ISSUE FOR THE WFO MPX CWFA THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM. THE
SFC HIGH PRES AREA WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE S AND E...MAKING WAY FOR
AN INCOMING CDFNT DUE TO PASS THRU THE REGION MID-TO-LATE DAY
TMRW. A UPR LVL CUTOFF LOW WITHIN A DIGGING TROF OVER NRN ONTARIO
PROVINCE WILL DROP SSE OVERNIGHT THRU LATE DAY TMRW...WITH THE UPR
LOW NEARLY REACHING LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL HELP NUDGE THE CDFNT
ACROSS MN/WI THRU THE DAY TMRW...HELPING IT REACH THE MN/IA BORDER
BY THE EVENING HRS. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE DRAGGED DOWN FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...THUS THE FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE MPX CWFA...TMRW AFTN. IN
ADDITION...THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BE
CONFINED TO FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT...CLOSER TO THE UPPER
LOW...SO HAVE ADVERTISED POPS FOR MAINLY ALONG AND E OF THE MN/WI
BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY THEN SPREADING INTO FAR SRN MN BY LATE
AFTN. MUCH OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO MAY WELL ESCAPE WITHOUT SEEING
PRECIP FROM THIS FRONT. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE WI PORTION OF THE
CWFA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY SOME ISOLD TSTMS
SINCE INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL BE HEIGHTENED IN THE PRE-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. ADDING TO THE INSTABILITY WILL BE THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM UP SEVERAL DEGREES TOMORROW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
COMPARED TO TDA. HIGHS TMRW WILL HIT THE UPR 60S TO LWR
70S...FOLLOWING WARMER LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S TNGT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE LONGER TERM ENTAILS A WARMING TREND BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
TIMING OF NEXT FRONT INTO THE WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A BREEZY AND DRY DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WITH HUMIDITY DROPPING TO AROUND 25 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR REAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BUT
IT WILL STILL BE DRY.

THURSDAY BRINGS THE RETURN FLOW AND AT LEAST A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE WAA. WE WILL LIKELY SEE VIRGA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID CLOUDS AS THEY PASS TO THE EAST AS
WELL..LINGERING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WE CONTINUED WITH THE DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW BUT IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE WE MAY NEED TO
INTRODUCE A SMALL POP FOR THE RISK OF SHOWERS TO THE EAST.

THE WARMEST DAY APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY AS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT...WITH A THERMAL RIDGE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MIX DOWN FROM
AROUND 800MB DOES YIELD AT LEAST SOME LOWER 80S OVER A GOOD PART
OF MN. WE COULD SEE SOME MID 80S TO THE LEE OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE
BARRING SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER. THE FRONT SAGS INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODEL TRENDS FROM THE CANADIAN AND
ECMWF INDICATE THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO IOWA. THE GFS IS THE
ONLY MODEL SHOWING IT STALLING CLOSE TO THE MN/IA BORDER AND
RETURNING AS A WARM FRONT FOR SUNDAY. IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE...
WE MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE MUCH OF THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER
SUNDAY...AND HOLD OFF FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUAD OF THE CWA. SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH THE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
RANGE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

LITTLE WEATHER CONCERN THIS PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE BOARD. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS FOR TUESDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. FOR THE EASTERN TAF
SITES...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GO ALONG
WITH THE LIFT PRODUCED BY THE FRONT TO CAUSE SOME SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...WHICH WILL ALL BE SHORT-LIVED
ALONG THE LEADING OF THE BOUNDARY. FARTHER WEST...DRY AIR WILL BE
TOO TOUGH TO OVERCOME AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS. STRONG DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL COME BEHIND SAID
FRONT...MEANING SKIES WILL CLEAR QUICKLY AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

KMSP...NO CHANGE FROM THE MAIN DISCUSSION. PRECIP TRENDS LOOKING
JUST A TAD SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND NNW AT 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND SW 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPD
SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...SPD



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