Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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799
FXUS63 KMPX 231818
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
118 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.UPDATE...For 18z aviation discussion below

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 433 am CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

There are two waves/MCVs of interest out there this morning that
will impact the weather for the upper MS Valley today. One has been
steadily working across NoDak through the night, with the other
doing the same in Nebraska. At the surface, there is a warm front
gaining better definition down near the Iowa border that will be
drawn north through the day. Several of the models, CAM and
deterministic alike, flat out failed to initialize the Nebraska
convection and its associated MCV overnight. Some of the models you
can find in this camp are the 23.00 ECMWF, HiRes NAM, and NSSL WRF.
These models show very little activity occurring with warm front
lifting north this morning, with a strong to severe MCS coming out
of the Fargo area and racing down I-94 through afternoon and early
evening.

Instead we are starting to trend things toward the HRRR/experimental
HRRR/RAP/HopWRF, which are the models that at least realized there
was convection over Nebraska overnight. By mid morning, we should
see showers/storms moving into south central MN, with activity
increasing in strength from southeast MN toward St. Cloud as we work
a little daytime heating into the mix, with a NW to SE oriented line
of storms moving into WI early in the afternoon. This will have
significant implications on the activity associated with the cold
front coming out of NoDak later in the day. Currently, we think this
MCV activity will end up nudging that activity farther north than
what models like the ECMWF and NSSL-WRF have.

What does this mean for the severe threat and flash flood threat?
Well for the SPC Day1 outlook to reasonably verify, the limited
morning convection scenario would have to end up being the route
things take, but that is beginning to look unlikely at the moment.
Think the severe threat will be of the isolated hail/wind variety
with the first wave lifting up with the Nebraska MCV, while the wind
threat with a squall line in the late afternoon/evening looks to be
greatest across central and northern MN. This MCV is also putting
the flash flood watch in serious question, with the heavy rain
signal looking to shift south across south central and southeast MN
toward NW Illinois. However, after coordination with DLH, decided
not to change the flash flood watch before the rain falls. There is
still some threat there, with the experimental HRRR showing the
northern MN squall line putting out 1-3" of QPF, but with warm
frontal/MCV activity looking to remain south of where we have the
flash flood watch, beginning to lose some confidence on the flash
flood risk in the watch area.

For temperatures today, there was talk of issuing a heat advisory
for much of the area south of I-94, but concerns about the potential
impact of cloud cover and earlier showers/thunderstorms kept us from
issuing one. It is very well possible that our current forecast
south of I-94 with highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s is overdone,
which means forecast heat indices back up around 100 could be a
bit too much as well.

Tonight, no matter if you look at a little or lots of MCV
precipitation solution, both camps show precipitation being clear of
the MPX CWA by 12z Sun, so sped up west to east departure of PoPs
quite a bit, going dry in the MPX CWA after 9z.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 433 am CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

The first half of the long term will be dry along with
temperatures a little above normal while a cooler and wetter
pattern is expected for the second half.

A cold front will be east and south of the FA Sunday morning with
the overnight showers and thunderstorms having exited to the east.
High pressure will then build in on Sunday and cover the FA on
Monday. The low level thermal pattern recovers nicely behind the
front with mix down suggesting highs in the lower to middle 80s on
Sunday with middle to upper 80s on Monday. Even Tuesday should
another warm day with highs in the middle to upper 80s. However,
showers and a few thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday as the
first in a series of waves move in. Model trends suggest
that the wave is not as robust as it once was and precipitation
chances are better to the north and west of our FA. The Twin
Cities may stay dry on Tuesday. If so, highs could reach 90.

Thereafter, a large upper trough will slowly get carved out from
the Northern Plains to the Great Lakes region. Short waves will be
embedded in this flow bringing several chances for showers and
thunderstorms. At this time, the two periods that look best for
precipitation are Tuesday night and Wednesday and then again
Thursday night and Friday. The best instability is Tuesday night
and Wednesday with a few strong to severe storms possible. High
temperatures for the latter half of the work week will be a little
cooler with a lower height and thermal field over us. Highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s will be common Thursday and Friday. Lows
throughout the period will be in the lower to middle 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

The complex of showers and thunderstorms arching from west central
MN across east central MN and west central WI will affect the TAF
sites for the first few hours of this afternoon. Will likely see a
flare up of storms across west central MN on the western edge of
the showers where the clearing is ensuing. So, we are not totally
out of the woods as far as thunderstorms are concerned, so have
maintained a mention at all sites for late afternoon and/or eve.
Winds will settle down to a southeast direction for this
afternoon, speeds 12-15kts gusts to around 20kts, then shift to
the southwest this eve.

KMSP...
Expect a break in the activity for at least the first couple
hours of the TAF period, but we are seeing a renewal of strong
storms back to the west. Will be monitoring these for evolution
this afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...VFR. Winds NW 10-15 kt.
Mon...VFR. Winds NW 5-10 kt.
Tue...VFR. Thunderstorms Possible. Light & Variable Wind.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for WIZ014>016.

MN...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MNZ043>045-050-052-
     053.

&&

$$


SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...LS



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