Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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395
FXUS63 KMPX 222105
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
305 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Water vapor imagery showing upper low drifting slowly e-ne across
northeast MO this afternoon. Enhanced area of clouds now over
southeast MN and is beginning to pivot. Another area of enhanced
clouds drifting into far southern MN where moderate to heavy snow
has been falling much of the afternoon. Strong north/northeast
winds gusting to 35-40 kts at times continue into south central
area, where they have already observed 8 to 12 in the heavy snow
band. Significant blowing and drifting snow with near whiteout
conditions expected to continue through the remainder of the
afternoon in the blizzard warning area. The greater rates have
worked into the southern Metro where 1 to 2 inches an hour will
likely continue through about 6-7 PM. Will likely see around a
foot of snow in Scott and Dakota Co. with 6 to 10 inches likely
across the metro.

The system is forecast to exit to the east this evening and will
continue the headlines through 06Z. An addition 1 to 3 inches
likely accumulating after 6 PM over the southeast area.

Trimmed the highs for Tuesday over the expected heavy snow area
over south central MN into western WI. Otherwise, we should see
more sunshine for Tuesday.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 310 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

The weather pattern will be progressive for the extended period,
however no significant hazardous weather is expected. The shortwave
that is anticipated to pass through overnight Tuesday into Wednesday
morning will keep skies mostly cloudy through Thursday. Temperatures
will become more mild as the week continues as the thermal ridge
builds-in on Thursday and continues through Friday. Temperatures
will be above-normal with highs reaching the lower to mid 40s on
Friday.

This third January thaw will not last long as a cold front will
arrive late Friday into Saturday morning. Depending on the exact
timing of the front, Saturday may be one of those days where the
high temperatures of mid to upper 30s occur close to midnight in the
Eastern half of our CWA. There is a chance for light snowfall late
Saturday into Sunday, primarily over West Central Wisconsin, with an
upper-level trough in place. Temperatures will remain near normal to
slightly below normal on Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1110 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

A full scale winter storm will impact MPX taf sites from KRWF,
northeast to KRNH and southward through 00z, and possibly beyond
00z around KRNH/KMKT/KMSP. High confidence that LIFR/IFR
cigs/vsbys in snow and blowing snow will affect
KRWF/KMSP/KRNH/KMKT/KEAU through the afternoon, with some mixture
of PL near KEAU after 21z. There is a chance of vsbys/cigs near
airport minimums during the height of the storm. Only KAXN will
have IFR/MVFR cigs with no restrictions to vsby as all the
snowfall will be southeast of this airport. KSTC will be on the
edge after 21z, and possibly MVFR vsbys in snow between 21-03z.
Otherwise, conditions will slowly improve between 3-6z in east
central Minnesota, west central Wisconsin, but IFR/MVFR cigs will
likely continue through Tuesday morning. Winds will remain from
the northeast to north, with a more north to northwest direction
late this afternoon/evening. Gusty winds will continue until late
this evening.

KMSP...

Only additional comments are snowfall rates will approach or
exceed 1 to 1.5 inches per hour during the afternoon, and possibly
last through 00z. Confidence is high that LIFR/IFR conditions
will remain, with vsbys as low as 1/4SM in heavy snowfall/blowing
snow. There could be a short period of cigs/vsbys near airport
minimums during the height of this storm. Northeast winds of
16-18 kts, gusts to 24-28 kts, with slowly become more
north/northwest this evening/overnight and decrease in speed.
Total snowfall through this event could exceed 12 inches before
06z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

Tue...MVFR thru mrng. Winds NW 5-10 kts.
Wed...MVFR/IFR cigs. Winds 5 kts or less.
Thu...MVFR/IFR cigs. Winds SE 5-10 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for WIZ014>016-
     023>028.

MN...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for MNZ060>063-
     067>070-078.

     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MNZ053-
     065-066-073.

     Blizzard Warning until midnight CST tonight for MNZ074>077-
     082>085-091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...AMK
AVIATION...JLT



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