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000
FXUS63 KMPX 092042
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
342 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

THE WARMEST TEMPS SINCE A FEW 40S OCCURRED ARND MID FEBRUARY
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH IS IN RESPONSE TO A PACIFIC AIR MASS
RIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTN. IT
COULD HAVE BEEN A LOT WARMER IF THE MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS WAS
LESS...NO SNOW COVER...AND THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED UP TO ARND 3K.
WHERE THE SNOW PACK WAS LIGHT ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE BUFFALO
RIDGE IN WC MN...TEMPS MANAGED TO RISE INTO THE 50S AS OF 130 PM.
MONDAY/S TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY EVEN WITH MORE SUNSHINE
AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER 95/92H TEMPS DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

FOCAL POINT TO THIS LONG TERM FCST IS MON NIGHT THRU TUE DUE TO A
1-2 PUNCH OF A PAIR OF LOW PRES CENTERS. ONE WILL DROP ESE FROM
WRN CANADA...TRACKING ACRS THE CENTRAL WRN CANADIAN PROVINCES INTO
THE SRN ERN CANADIAN PROVINCES MON INTO TUE...WHILE THE SECOND LOW
PRES CENTER DEVELOPS OVER THE TYPICAL COLORADO REGION AND SHIFTS
EWD ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID
ATLC STATES MON NIGHT THRU WED. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL DRAG A CDFNT
THRU THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY REGION DURG THE DAY ON MON...
PUTTING THE COLD AIR IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE SECOND LOW PRES
SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING PRECIPITATION.
HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE POP SCHEME FOR THIS EVENT...
INDICATING THAT FAR SRN MN WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHC FOR PRECIP
WITH CHCS DECRG GOING NWD. THERE IS STILL SOME VARIABILITY IN BOTH
QPF AND P-TYPE...WHICH THEN AFFECTS POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
STARTING WITH QPF...LIQUID AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO RANGE 0.10-0.20
IN FAR SRN MN AND DROPPING OFF GOING N. TAKING THIS IN THE CONTEXT
OF P-TYPE...THERE LOOKS TO BE LESS WARMER AIR ENVELOPED INTO THIS
SYSTEM. HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ELIMINATE -FZRA/-IP AS P-TYPES SINCE
THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A DEFINITIVE DEEP WARM LAYER NOR BONA
FIDE FREEZING TEMPS AT THE SFC AT THE TIME OF PRECIP. IN OTHER
WORDS...THE ENTIRE BLYR COLUMN DOWN TO THE SFC LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY
UNIFORM FROM ABOVE AND BELOW FREEZING...MAKING THE ONLY P-TYPES
-RA...-SN...OR A MIX OF ONLY THOSE TWO. AM LOOKING FOR PRECIP TO
START OUT AS A -RA/-SN MIX BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL -SN...
MAKING THE MOST INTENSE TIMING FOR PRECIP ARND 12Z TUE TO BE ALL
-SN...BEFORE THE PRECIP SLACKENS OFF DURG THE DAY ON TUE AND
TRANSITIONS BACK TO -RA BEFORE ENDING LATE TUE AFTN. BECAUSE OF
THE VARIATIONS IN TEMPERATURE...THIS WILL AFFECT SNOW RATIOS...
AND LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS PUTS RATIOS IN THE 8:1 TO 12:1 AREA...
MAKING FOR 1-2" NEAR THE IOWA BORDER AND LESS GOING N OF WET
ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE TIGHT DYNAMICS POTENTIALLY
COMING OUT OF THIS SYSTEM...A NARROW BAND OF HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS
MAY WELL DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER FAR SRN MN. WILL NEED TO
SEE HOW MORE MESOSCALE MODELS DEVELOP THIS IDEA BEFORE JUMPING ON
THAT BANDWAGON.

ONCE THIS CONGLOMERATE SYSTEM SHIFTS OFF TO THE E BY LATE TUE...
THE FCST BECOMES MUCH MORE TRANQUIL AND ANOTHER WARMING TREND WILL
TAKE HOLD. CAA WILL CONTINUE INTO WED WITH HIGHS AGAIN THE 30S AS
HIGH PRES MOVES ACRS. AS THIS HIGH PRES AREA SHIFTS OFF TO THE E
LATE WED...RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...
LEADING TO A NOTICEABLE INCRS IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE 40S FOR THE
BULK OF THE MPX CWFA...ALONG WITH SOME LWR 50S POSSIBLE IN FAR SRN
AND SWRN MN.

ALONG WITH THE RISING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK WILL BE A
NOTICEABLE LOSS IN THE SNOWPACK. EXCEPT FOR TUE AND WED WITH THE
CLOUD COVER AND SUBSEQUENT COLD AIR ADVECTION...SNOW LOSS EACH DAY
THIS WEEK WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 1 INCH PER DAY. DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW
THIS WILL PLAY INTO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
OVERALL LACK OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE WARMER AIR MAY LEAD
TO THE BREAKING OF ICE ON MANY AREA RIVERS AND THIS MAY LEAD TO
POTENTIAL FLOODING CONCERNS GOING FORWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MPX CWA THRU 18Z MON. ONLY MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS /AOA 10K/ IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS.
SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTN WILL SUBSIDE AND SHIFT TO THE W/WNW BY
EVENING. A MORE WNW WIND ARND 8-10 KTS IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

KMSP...

VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE NEXT 30 HRS WILL GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTN UP TO 20 KTS AT TIMES BEFORE 21Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY
MID/LATE AFTN AND BECOME MORE SW/WSW BY 00Z AND DECREASE TO UNDER
7 KTS BY 3Z. A WNW WIND ARND 8-10 KTS IS EXPECTED MONDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN -SN/-RA. NW WIND 5-15 KT.
WED...VFR. NW WIND 5-7 KTS BECOMING W.
THU...VFR. W WIND 5-10 KTS BECOMING SW.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JLT