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000
FXUS63 KMPX 221015
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
415 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

AREAS OF CLEARING...TOGETHER WITH LIGHT WINDS LET TO PRISTINE
COOLING CONDITIONS...WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES NEAR ZERO
ACROSS FAR WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES REMAINED
IN THE MID 20S BENEATH OVERCAST SKIES IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI.

THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY LOW CLOUDS WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION
AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH A STOUT INVERSION.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
MIGRATES EASTWARD AND IS REPLACES BY A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM DRIVING THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL SKIRT ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE WAVE...BUT HAVE HELD OFF WITH POPS UNTIL
AFTER 09Z FRIDAY. ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...BUT THE
CONCERN IS FREEZING DRIZZLE/SLEET GIVEN THE WARM LAYER ALOFT AND SUB-
FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

THE CURRENT LONG TERM PERIOD JUST ABOUT TAKES US THROUGH THE REST
OF THE MONTH...AND THE WAY THINGS ARE LOOKING...JANUARY WILL
FINISH SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WHAT MAKES THIS EVEN MORE
IMPRESSIVE IS THE SWING FROM THE 13TH WHEN THE RUNNING AVERAGE FOR
CLIMATE LOCATIONS WERE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE WARMEST
TEMPS FOR THIS MONTH MAY BE YET TO COME BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

FIRST CONCERN WILL BE FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THERE DOES LOOK LIKE A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION ALONG IT...WITH THERMAL RIDGING JUST ALOFT MAKING
FOR A LESS THAN CLEAR CUT PTYPE SCENARIO. THINK THE THERMAL
PROFILE IS TOO WARM FOR ANY SNOW...ASIDE FROM PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
WI. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A FAIRLY SIZABLE SUBFREEZING
LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE...BUT THEY MAY BE TOO COLD IN THE WAA
REGIME. DEEPEST SUBFREEZING LAYER AND THUS HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
SLEET WOULD BE ACROSS FAR EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. THAT LEAVES
A RAIN AND/OR FREEZING RAIN SET UP DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPS
FURTHER WEST INTO MN. AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHT...BUT A FEW SLICK
SPOTS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING. SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AS
TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 40 BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND AN EXITING NOR
EASTER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL TEND TO FAVOR A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE NAM AND ECMWF. LEANED
THAT WAY FOR THIS FORECAST...BUT THE GFS DOES HAVE SUPPORT FROM
THE CANADIAN...HOPWRF-TS...AND A NUMBER OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
FOR A LESS AMPLIFIED SCENARIO WHICH WOULD PUSH THE LOW TRACK
FURTHER EAST. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM AT THIS POINT...BUT IF THE NAM
DOES HAPPEN TO PAN OUT ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE A GOOD BET OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA.

NORTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC FLOW COULD KEEP CLOUDS AND
FLURRIES AROUND INTO MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM
DIVES SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW.

BY NEXT WEDNESDAY...THE ECMWF HAS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDING EAST
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THICKNESSES RISE TO NEAR 558
DM OVER SWRN MN AND SURFACE TEMPS PUSHING THE 50S OVER MN. GFS
MAINTAINS WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW...AND WHILE NOT AS WARM...STILL MILD
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BOTTOM LINE...TEMPS WEDNESDAY MAY BE MANY
DEGREES TOO COLD IF THE TREND HOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 512 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015

LOWER CEILINGS LOOK TO LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF TONIGHT UNTIL WE GET ONTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SEE BETTER SUBSIDENCE WORK INTO THE AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW
HOLES IN THE LOWER DECK THIS AFTERNOON... SO SOME TEMPORARY
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES. ONLY INCLUDES THAT AT KAXN
FOR NOW... SINCE THE ONLY LARGE HOLE EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
IS UPSTREAM OF THERE AT THE CURRENT TIME. HOWEVER.. THE OTHER MN
SITES COULD SEE TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENT AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. MORE SUBSTANTIAL IMPROVEMENT AND EROSION OF THE LOW
CLOUDS IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
STARTS TO WORK IN AND WE FINALLY GET SOME BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO
KICK UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH TO HELP MOVE THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OUT OF THE REGION.

KMSP...TAF REFLECTS OVERALL EXPECTATIONS WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN JUST
HOW QUICKLY THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL DEPART... AND COULD CERTAINLY
SEE TIMING VARY BY SEVERAL HOURS IN COMPARISON TO THE FORECAST...
WITH A SLOWER DEPARTURE SEEMING THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IF THINGS
DIFFER.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THURSDAY OVERNIGHT...VFR. SOUTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 KT.
FRIDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SLEET. SOUTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING WEST.
FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. WEST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
SATURDAY...VFR. WEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED... IFR POSSIBLE.
MVFR OR IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST
WIND 10 TO 15 KT BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 KT SUNDAY.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...