Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 011734
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1234 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...FOR THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A WEAK LOBE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY/POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST WI TO SOUTHWEST MN HAVE BEEN DRIVING THE
PROLONGED VERY LIGHT RAIN OVER SOUTHERN MN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THESE FEATURES FADE AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE LINGERING SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR
SPRINKLES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN TOWARD EAU CLAIRE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. TO THE NORTHWEST...CLOUDS WILL SCATTER...WITH NEARLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT ONE LAST DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH
READINGS TOPPING OUT FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE NORTHEAST AGAIN TODAY...BUT NOT QUITE AS SPUNKY AS
SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY FROM 10 TO 15 MPH.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND COMBINED WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 30S...SHOULD
BE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. THIS WILL
MEAN THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST...PRIMARILY FROM NORTH CENTRAL
MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI /GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF A PRINCETON MN
TO NEW RICHMOND WI LINE/.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

ONLY CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL COME TUESDAY
AFTN AND EVENING FOR EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. A STRONG SHORT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUE/TUE NIGHT. MOISTURE
IS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO QPF AMTS WILL BE LIGHT AND ACTIVITY
WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED. THIS FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WX FOR WED BEFORE A DRY AND WARM PERIOD
DEVELOPS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

PAST WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISING AN
OMEGA TYPE BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPING FOR NORTH AMERICA. TWO
AREAS OF UPPER LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST AND
EAST COASTS WITH A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE U.S.
WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...WX SYSTEMS WILL BE INCLINED TO REMAIN
STAGNATE AND MOVE LITTLE. WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME TYPE OF LONG WAVE
PATTERN SHIFT BEFORE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DEVELOP IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST THRU NEXT WEEKEND. IN THE MEANTIME...TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY MODERATE WITH THE WARMEST READINGS LIKELY CENTERED NEAR THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS TAF ISSUANCE IS THE THREAT FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE 21Z-03Z TIME
FRAME FROM WEST CENTRAL WI THROUGH SOUTHEAST MN. THE ONLY TAF
SITE AT RISK WOULD BE KEAU. VFR CONDITIONS WOULD PREVAIL WITH
CEILINGS IN THE 040-050 RANGE. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF SITES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR OUTSIDE OF SOME SCT-BKN CU THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON 12-15G20KTS WILL
DIMINISH TO 8-10 KNOTS IN THE 21Z- 24Z PERIOD THEN BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

KMSP...SCT CU THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 045. IT COULD BECOME BKN045
FOR A SHORT TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A FEW SHOWERS OCCUR WELL
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AIRFIELD. WINDS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
THOSE DESCRIBED ABOVE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. ISOLATED AFTN/EVE SHRA POSSIBLE. WIND NW AT 15G25KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NNW AT 10-15KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND N 6-8KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...RAH


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