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000
FXUS63 KMPX 070845
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
345 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

AMPLIFICATION OF THE BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS WILL OCCUR DURING THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED ON EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FEATURE
WILL DIP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME OF THE
ATTENDANT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO
WEST/CENTRAL MN THIS MORNING. SAID ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
SCATTERED IN COVERAGE...BUT THEN EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE ARRIVES.

WHILE THERE IS NOT A SURFACE COMPONENT TO THIS TROUGH IN OUR
AREA...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS STILL APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...PER PROGGED BULK SHEAR VALUES
OF 50-60 KTS...ML CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG...AND 700-500MB LAPSE RATES
OF 7 C/KM. LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS ALSO A CONCERN AS THE STORMS POTENTIALLY EVOLVE INTO
A COMPLEX.

BREEZY WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY SHOULD EVOKE SUFFICIENT
MIXING...WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS NOT STRAYING TOO FAR AWAY FROM THE
80 DEGREE MARK. CLOUDS GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT TONIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

OVERALL A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH EVERY TWO/THREE DAYS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED
AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. TIMING
ISSUES WILL REMAIN...ESPECIALLY LONGER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD YOU
GO. YESTERDAYS FIRST 90 DEGREES AT THE TWIN CITIES AIRPORT WILL
LIKELY BE THE LAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK AS THE MEAN PATTERN REMAINS
NW. THICKNESS VALUES HAVE TRENDED COOLER FOR TUE/WED OF THIS
WEEK...SO TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED. EVEN
WITH FULL SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPS MAY ONLY REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. TUESDAY WILL HAVE CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP DURING THE
DAYTIME. HOWEVER...TYPICALLY THESE INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA ARE ISOLD
WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
LOW WHICH WILL BE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WC/NW WI WILL HAVE THE
BEST CHC OF THESE SHRA/TSRA TUE AFTN. THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY BASED ON
THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS. ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL LIKELY SET UP FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEKEND. AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED...THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
HAVE UNCERTAINTIES ON TIMING. IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE LONGER
RANGE MODELS INDICATED THAT THIS COOLER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE THIRD WEEK OF JULY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOSTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BOUTS OF
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SKC IS FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE. A LEADING DISTURBANCE MAY BRING
SHOWERS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA TOWARD DAWN...WITH ACTIVITY
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. A LOT OF THE
HI RES MODELS KEEP THE TSRA SCATTERED WHICH MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST TIMING AT ANY GIVEN TAF LOCATION. WHILE IT IS LIKELY ALL
TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY AT SOME POINT MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW ON MORE PRECISE DETAILS
AT THIS TIME.

KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
BRIEF INSTANCES OF IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA. KEPT MOST
OF THE PERIOD DRY UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN TIMING INCREASES.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10 TO 20 KT.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5 TO 15 KT.
THU...VFR. CHC TSRA OVERNIGHT. WIND S 10 TO 15 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...BORGHOFF