Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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413 FXUS63 KMPX 080031 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 731 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms beginning to develop this afternoon across east-central Minnesota & western Wisconsin. A few strong storms are possible through this evening. - Another round of thunderstorms & locally heavy rain is expected Wednesday night across far-southern Minnesota. - Less active pattern is likely to end the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 A line of spotty showers/storms developed late this morning over western Renville county, and has slowly progressed further north up into north-central Minnesota. As the associated boundary moves northeastward, development is expected further south and east of the current line. The NAM 3km seems to have the best handle of the storms this morning, which would put our main time period for development around 3pm local time and lasting through 9-10pm in western Wisconsin (if you buy into this specific model). Any storms that pop up over east-central Minnesota and western Wisconsin will have the potential to produce small hail, gusty winds, and a few brief spin-ups. The combination of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE, 25-30 kts of effective bulk shear, and a slight signal of enhanced stretching potential should be enough to support these organized storms capable of producing the aforementioned hazards. Spotty rainfall amounts close to 0.5"+ are likely for areas that are impacted by storms this afternoon, especially over western Wisconsin where more widespread rain chances is expected. Another period of scattered showers/storms is on deck tomorrow afternoon into Thursday as the upper-level low over the Northern Plains spins a few blips of vorticity into southern Minnesota. This will prompt multiple rounds of slow-moving, training thunderstorms, with the main hazard expected to be excessive rainfall. Ensemble guidance continues to highlight the potential for localized rainfall amounts in exceedance of 3" along the Minnesota/Iowa border. The exact location of this heavy rainfall will likely be unknown until the event is underway, however the potential is there for a flooding threat in southern Minnesota Wednesday night into Thursday. Drier conditions are likely following this system, as northwest flow sets up aloft, however isolated chances for diurnally-drive showers will remain in place most afternoons/evenings. A brief cooldown is expected on Thursday after the gradual passage of the upper low, then temperatures will generally trend up into the low-mid 70s over the next week or so. A return to a more active pattern does not look likely until mid-late next week potentially. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 718 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 The occluded front is located from the west of Siren down to between Menomonie and Eau Claire. SHRA/TSRA are mostly done for the MPX area, though there is one more cluster of showers that may impact EAU through 1z. After that, the rest of the night will feature diminishing wind speeds and decreasing clouds. The only potential issue to watch will be the potential for fog along the remnant boundary from EAU back toward central MN (to the north of STC). Next rain chances arrive Wednesday afternoon in southern MN, though that has been trending south and may stay south of even MKT. KMSP...It is trending drier for MSP on Wednesday, with rain chances look to hold off until after 6z Thu (just beyond the end of the 30 hour TAF period) /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind NE 10G20 kts. FRI...Mainly VFR. Chance PM MVFR/-TSRA. Wind NW 20G35 kts. SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G20 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BED AVIATION...MPG