Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 261758
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1258 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1137 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Going forecast looks to be pretty much on track today. Cold front
at 11am was just clearing FRM/LJF/LXL and is expected to reach the
I-35 corridor at around 5pm. Most of the CAMS show a narrow line
of thunderstorms developing between 1pm and 2pm up around Mille
Lacs Lake that will work east into NW WI before dissipating with
the setting sun. SBCAPE is progged to build to near 1000 j/kg,
with bulk shear on the order of 30kts. Not expecting any
organized or widespread severe weather, but an angrier cell or
two capable of producing some small hail or brief wind gusts can`t
be ruled out. Greatest coverage of storms is expected north of
I-94 as elongated short wave current positioned from northeast SD
to Lake of the Woods will swing northeast into the Arrowhead,
providing some meager upper forcing for better storm coverage
across the northern half of MN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

A rather quiet morning across the country with only some mid level
clouds streaming overhead locally. The biggest story today will be
the passage of a front this afternoon, bringing mainly a wind
shift but possibly a few storms along and east of I-35.
Instability is pretty meager, however, and models generally aren`t
too excited to break out convection other than the GFS. Some
pockets of greater instability ahead of the front may be the focus
for thunderstorm development, and think coverage should be
isolated-scattered in nature. With a fair amount of sun expected,
we should take full advantage of the encroaching thermal ridge
ahead of the front and reach the upper 70s across southern and
eastern MN.

West winds and a drier airmass will move in tonight. Clear skies
and seasonable temperatures are expected.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

The extended forecast looks cool, cloudy, with several chances for
rain, but little in the way of rainfall amounts. On the bright side,
not expecting all day rainfall at any time during the period.
Afternoon high temperatures will be around 5 to 10 degrees below the
seasonal average for most of next week. Needless to day the rest of
the month is sure to disappoint if you like warm temperatures, lots
of sun, or strong thunderstorms.

There`s not much to say about the extended period. An upper level
trough over central Canada will send a series of shortwaves embedded
in northwest flow across the Upper Midwest. This will lead to cooler
air with limited moisture content. However, the boundary layer
moisture will be sufficient to produce a blanket of overcast skies
during the afternoon for Sunday and Monday. Couple this with some
weak forcing for a ascent and that explains the light QPF being
painted across the region by the models. Forecast soundings show a
thin layer of CAPE, so could see a few areas of deep convection with
a cool rain shower and perhaps some pea-size hail mixed in with a
few stronger cores.

Looking ahead into the middle of next week, there are stark
differences between the models with some guidance showing warmer
southwest flow while others prolong the current weather pattern. Did
not make any changes to the blended guidance, but at this time it
seems like the cooler solution should prevail since there is not a
strong signal that indicates the pattern will shift.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Frontal boundary on the doorstep of STC and will be getting to the
I-35 corridor during peak daytime heating. Starting to get a
decent cu field forming along the boundary from STC north and
expect shra/tsra to develop from this by 19z. MSP/RNH will be the
only locations with a threat of seeing this diurnally driven
activity. Expect VFR skies throughout, with SKC overnight, but mid
level clouds will become OVC Saturday as the wave currently
working across WY heads our way.

KMSP...The hrrr has been pretty consistent with some iso/sct
shra/trsa activity in the vicinity around 22/23z. Precip chances
look better north, hence only a vcsh from 22z to 00z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...VFR. Chc -shra. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
Mon...VFR. Chance showers. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
Tue...VFR. Wind NW 10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MPG
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...MPG


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