Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 011630
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1130 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURES WAS PUSHING INTO
WISCONSIN FROM THE NORTH...WITH DRY AIR AND LOW DEW POINTS
REACHING WESTERN WI AND EASTERN MN. IT WAS A DIFFERENT STORY
ACROSS WESTERN MN. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WERE JUST CROSSING THE MN/ND
BORDER AT 3AM. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SETUP PRIMARILY THROUGH THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS...BUT THE SHOWERS EXTEND FURTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. WITH THE TRAJECTORY THEY ARE ON...WAS
FORCED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN...MAINLY BRINGING
THE LOW POPS FURTHER EAST. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING
THIS SITUATION WELL. THE HRRR AND THE RAP HOWEVER HAVE LATCHED ON
TO THE IDEA OF RAIN ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE
PROBLEM THROUGH IS THE DRY AIR TO THE EAST. I DIDN`T BRING THE
POPS AS FAR WEST AS THE RAP WOULD INDICATE...AS I ANTICIPATE THIS
AREA OF SHOWERS TO BEGIN CRUMBLING ON ITS EASTERN EDGE AS IT HITS
THE DRY AIR...AND OUTRUNS THE FORCING TO THE WEST. POPS WILL
LINGER ACROSS FAR WESTERN MN AS THE WAVE WORKS THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY...AND DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE POPS INCREASE
AGAIN IN WESTERN MN AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE TO ARRIVE EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TODAY...WITH
MID 70S EXPECTED.  CONDITIONS WONT FEEL QUITE AS HUMID AS THEY HAVE
RECENTLY...WITH THE HIGH BRINING DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S...AND
POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 40S THE NORTHERN PORTION OF WEST CENTRAL WI.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION WILL BE WITH US A FEW MORE DAYS BEFORE BECOMING
MORE WESTERLY THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE A MINOR WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST IN THIS FLOW PATTERN AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM. THEREFORE...CHANCE POPS WERE CONTINUED
FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE.

THEREAFTER...FRIDAY AND THE FOURTH OF JULY LOOK DRY AS THE FLOW
ALOFT BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. THIS CHANGE
IS THE RESULT OF A DEEP UPPER LOW PROGGED TO PASS ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ATTENDANT SHORT WAVE WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS IS REALLY THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT PERIOD
FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE LONGER TERM. ONE THING OBSERVED WITH THE
00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF IS THAT THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR FA AND IS NOW NEARLY IN STEP WITH THE
GFS. THIS TIMING WOULD HAVE THE FRONT INTO NW MINNESOTA SUNDAY
EVENING...REACHING THE TWIN CITIES AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY AND
PASSING EAST OF EAU CLAIRE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE TWO
SOLUTIONS IN AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...EXPANDED THE LIKELY
POPS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN UP THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES AND INTO
WESTERN WISCONSIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. CURRENT SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS FROM THE GFS WOULD INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH MUCH
LESS HUMID AIR WILL SPREAD IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE DEW POINTS COULD BE IN THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE ON
TUESDAY.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...SOME UPWARD MODIFICATION WAS MADE TO
HIGHS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH THE ECMWF
GUIDANCE. THIS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S VERSUS THE
LOWER 80S FROM THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE. THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES ARE
EASILY SUPPORTED WITH THE 16 TO 18 DEG C 850MB TEMPS. IN
FACT...SUNDAYS HIGHS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
850 TEMPS OF 20 DEG C PUSH INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MN PORTION OF THE AREA.
SOME CHANCE OF FOG FORMING INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW WIDESPREAD ANY OF THIS WOULD BE
SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS AT THIS POINT. MID CLOUDS LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES EXITING TO THE SOUTH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
LOOKS DRY UNTIL POSSIBLY LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR WEST ONCE
AGAIN. WILL KEEP WESTERN TAFS DRY FOR NOW...AND LOWER CEILINGS A
BIT BUT REMAIN VFR. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAIN AOB 10KTS DURING
THE PERIOD...BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY OVER THE FAR WEST INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS/CHANGES.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU NIGHT...VFR WITH SLGT CHC MVFR -TSRA. WINDS SE AT 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR WITH SLGT CHC MVFR -TSRA. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...DWE



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