Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 210842
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
342 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

The short term concerns are mainly temperatures the next 24 hours
or so and the potential for frost.

Cool morning this morning with some temperatures dropping into the
lower and middle 30s is spots where clouds cleared longest. May
see some fog, especially in lower spots this morning over the west
and northern cwa with clear sky and lighter winds. We expect
plenty of sunshine during the day. Some cumulus development
possible over the southern area along with whatever remains to the
east this morning. High temperatures should range generally in
the upper 50s to lower 60s, which matches well with the mix down
tool.

With light winds and clear sky tonight, we expect temperatures to
drop off through the lower 30s to the east and remain in the mid
to upper 30s to the west. Added mention of patchy frost to the
eastern areas where temperatures are expected to be the coolest.
At the moment dont see readings reaching the critical 28F or hard
freeze. The day shift can take another look at this potential.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Saturday and Sunday...High pressure will slide through the region
during the day Saturday, centering itself south and east by late
in the day. The warmer return flow will keep mild temperatures in
place while its associated ridge axis aloft also sides to the
east. These features will combine to produce plenty of sunshine
with highs mainly in the mid 60s. A weak cold front will try to
split this ridge and surface high pressure but its impacts will be
rather weak. A few rain showers may try to approach from NW MN but
are not expected to hold together early Sunday morning. As high
pressure regains control Sunday, another mild and mostly clear day
is expected.

Monday through Thursday...A more active pattern is still in store
for much of next week although the details are still a bit in
flux. An open wave trough moving onshore the California coast
Sunday will progress east over the Rockies Monday morning. This
trough will help develop a low pressure center over WY/ND. This
system will shift eastward through MN into WI Monday night.
Chances increase for rain showers with this system, and
potentially a few thunderstorms in southern MN. This system ejects
into the Great Lakes Tuesday then there will generally be a break
in the action late Tuesday into Thursday. Models still depict an
amplified trough developing over the western CONUS Wednesday night
through Thursday, helping spawn a well-organized low pressure
system over the OK/TX panhandles around that time. Though chances
for precipitation will increase Thursday and beyond, details for
elements such as QPF and thunderstorms are still too early to
discern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1048 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Several concerns overnight. The first is BR across central and
western MN, close to the incoming ridge axis. Skies have basically
cleared in these areas, but some SCT- BKN mid level clouds cannot
be ruled out. Still, with rain in the past 24 hours, light winds
and a hydrolapse increasing with height, kept the MVFR BR mention
at KAXN and KSTC. The other concern is the threat for more MVFR
ceilings pushing south into KEAU due to the low level cyclonic
flow. Felt confidence was high enough to bring back MVFR ceilings
after 09z until 13z. Friday looks okay with SCT to occasionally
BKN VFR clouds. Light NW winds overnight increasing to around 10
knots during the day and then becoming NE by evening with speeds
less than 10 knots.

KMSP...SCT-BKN VFR clouds overnight and early Friday. There is
enough of a pressure gradient in place to keep BR out of the TAF.
Winds similar to those described above.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat...VFR. Wind W 5 kts.
Sun...VFR. Wind NE 5 kts becoming E.
Mon...VFR. ISO SHRA. Wind SE 10 kts becoming S 15-20 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH



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