450
FXUS63 KMPX 090452
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1152 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet through Wednesday with highs around 80 and lows in the
  upper 50s to low 60s.

- Shower and storm chances return Thursday and Friday, with
  better chances in the afternoon and evening hours both days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

A look at surface obs this afternoon shows typical afternoon
cumulus forming across southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.
Western Minnesota is seeing some of the lower ceilings around
3,000 ft. Winds are generally light and from the northwest, but
will become calm overnight before returning to light tomorrow
from the northeast/east. These quiet conditions are due to a
surface high pressure in the region, which could be disturbed
come Thursday and Friday.

A strengthening LLJ Wednesday night will drive convection in
western Iowa overnight, but it`s possible some showers and
storms could overspread parts of southern and western Minnesota.
How this plays out will impact Thursday`s chances for
convection. It appears the overnight activity should keep the
surface front suppressed to the southwest for much of the day,
with warm air advection and a persistent LLJ likely keeping
convection active across Iowa. By Thursday night, a shortwave
trough over the central Plains will lift northeast while a
larger trough over the northern Rockies/northern Plains begins
to approach from the west. This should lead to thunderstorm
chances increasing farther north in our area, but as is typical
with convective events, confidence is generally low at this
range and mesoscale details will ultimately determine the
outcome. Nevertheless, the two troughs will interact and
eventually phase with each other over the Upper Midwest Thursday
night and Friday when thunderstorm chances increase. ECMWF
Ensemble is forecasting PWATs at 120-150% of normal, which comes
out to around 1.5-1.75" liquid. With this in mind, widespread
showers and storms introduce risk for heavy rainfall. This also
aligns with WPC`s day 3 and 4 excessive rainfall forecast with a
Marginal for the area on Thursday and Friday (with a slight
just against the IA/SD/MN border on Friday).

The trough the brings the aforementioned storm chances will
move into the Great Lakes region by this weekend. Summer-like
temperatures in the 70s and low 80s will continue Saturday and
Sunday with the isolated chance for a diurnal pop-up
thunderstorm. Slight ridging returns on Monday with a bump in
temperatures in its company. Highs on Monday will be in the
upper 80s with dewpoints in the mid 60s, leading to more soupy
weather.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Terminals aim to stay VFR through the 6z TAF period. Light
winds and clear skies through daybreak may promote the
development of patchy ground fog. However, surface dew point
depressions are slightly greater than recent mornings, so plan
is to continue without visibility reductions in the 6z TAF set
and then AMD as necessary should a more notable fog scenario
unfold through the night. Winds between 5-10 kts through the
afternoon, with diurnal Cu around ~5kt feet.

KMSP...No additional concerns at this time.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. SHRA/TSRA likely late night. Wind S 10-15kts.
FRI...SHRA/TSRA likely. Wind SW 5-10kts bcmg WNW 10-15kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PV
AVIATION...Strus