Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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000
FXUS63 KGRR 260212
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1012 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1012 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

TWO SUPERCELLS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...ONE IN BARRY
AND ONE IN VAN BUREN COUNTY. THE BARRY CELL WAS RIDING ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND HAS SHOWN A TENDENCY TO BECOME A RIGHT-HAND
MOVING. WE HAVE WARNED THIS CELL...INCLUDING A TORNADO POSSIBLE
TAG. LATEST TRENDS SHOW THIS STORM WAS WEAKENING... HOWEVER IT
BEARS WATCHING AS IT TRAVELS ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.

THE VAN BUREN SUPERCELL WAS RIDING ALONG THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY
WERE MUCAPE WAS OVER 500 J/KG. THIS STORM SHOULD STAY STRONG
THROUGH KALAMAZOO COUNTY...BUT THEN CAPE VALUES LOWER INTO CALHOUN
COUNTY AND IT SHOULD THEN WEAKEN.

THE GENERAL TRENDS SHOULD BE WEAKER THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING. HOWEVER MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG PERSIST ALONG I-94
INTO THE OVERNIGHT...SO STRONGER STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
THERE THROUGH ABOUT 3-4AM.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

A WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING WITH AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF
THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE EVENING. A LARGE
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY BRINING CLOUDY SKIES BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES. MEANWHILE
YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FROM THE WESTERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST
SOUTHEAST AND BRING THE THREAT OF MORE RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

THE PRIMARY ISSUE IS THE LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWA EARLY THIS EVENING. BEYOND THAT WE ARE LOOKING AT THE NEXT
SYSTEM HEADING THIS WAY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THE COMBINATION OF A MID LEVEL JET CORE...THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKING ALONG I-96...MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES NEAR
1200 J/KG...AND 30 TO 40 KNOT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR... DECENT
FGEN...AND PWATS NEAR 1.2 INCHES ALL COMBINE TO RESULT IN A LINE
OF STRONG TO MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS CROSSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS (I-96 AND SOUTH) EARLY THIS EVENING. STORMS
WILL BE MOVING AROUND 40 TO 50 MPH SO THEY WILL CROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA IN AROUND 3 HOURS. I WOULD EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 40
TO 50 MPH WITH THESE STORMS TO BE COMMON PLACE. ALSO THERE IS THE
THREAT OF HAIL TO 1 INCH OR LARGER WITH THESE STORMS.

BEHIND THAT THE COLD AIR COMES IN BUT IT WILL BE SHALLOW SO THAT
WILL RESULT IN A STRATUS CLOUD LAYER THAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
DRIZZLE DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. THE CANADIAN HIGH
MOVING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT GET TO FAR SOUTH AS ANOTHER
PACIFIC STORM TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST CROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY. WE WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO WE WILL LIKELY GET SOME LIGHT RAIN FROM
THIS SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

WE ARE LOOKING AT A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE AREA
IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST. THIS WILL BRING GENERALLY
COOLER TEMPS TO THE AREA WITH A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF RAIN.

CHANCES OF RAIN WILL START OUT RIGHT AT THE BEGINNING ON THE LONG
TERM ON THU MORNING. WE WILL SEE THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
DESERT SW TRY TO LIFT TOWARD THE AREA. IT IS SHOWN TO GET HELD FROM
MOVING TOO FAR NORTH...DUE TO THE UPPER LOW THAT IS HOLDING STRONG
ACROSS ERN CANADA. THE FRONT WILL COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING A GOOD
CHC OF RAIN TO THE SRN SECTIONS OF LOWER MI...BEFORE SLIPPING BY TO
OUR SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY EAST AS THE LOW OPENS UP. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER INTO THU EVENING BEFORE DRYING OUT.

THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL PROGRESS INTO THE AREA BEGINNING LATE
SAT AND WILL CONTINUE INTO MON. WE WILL SEE A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SETUP
TAKE PLACE LATER IN THE WEEK WHERE A STRONG LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
WRN U.S. AND TRIES TO LIFT NE TOWARD THE AREA. THIS COULD MAKE
BETTER INROADS TO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LOW ACROSS CANADA WILL NOT
BE THERE TO PREVENT THE WRN U.S. SYSTEM COMING AS FAR NORTH. MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN SAT NIGHT AND SUN WILL DIMINISH TO MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AS THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVES EAST AND THE UPPER
LOW MOVES OVERHEAD BY MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

THE STORMS WE WERE EXPECTING TO FORM HAVE FORMED AND ARE HEADING
THIS WAY. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE THIS LINE OF
STORMS MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z. WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS
AREA EXPECTED AS THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH.

BEHIND THE LINE... CIGS WILL BECOME IFR BTW 06Z AND 09Z. CIGS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING TUESDAY BUT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL AROUND
00Z FOR THE CLOUDS TO FINALLY CLEAR OUT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

WE MAY NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES TUESDAY
MORNING BUT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE OFF SHORE. ALSO WINDS WILL
BE DECREASING DURING THE DAY SO IT WOULD BE MARGINAL AT BEST.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE INCH OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SOME QUICK RISES ON SMALLER STREAMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS
ARE LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE QUICK HITTING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME
MAIN STEM RIVERS LIKE THE THORNAPPLE OR EVEN THE GRAND COULD MAKE A
RUN AT BANKFULL IN CERTAIN LOCATIONS IF HIGHER END AMOUNTS ARE MORE
WIDESPREAD. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL
ACT TO KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED THIS WEEK...WITH A
SMALLER CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...JK
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...HOVING
MARINE...WDM



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