Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KGRR 071637
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1237 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF MICHIGAN TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CONTROL OUR WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE DAY
LEADING TO DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL ARRIVE FOR TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR WET WEATHER
AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

CLEARING IS ADVANCING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL
LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR OTHERWISE MOSTLY
SUNNY/BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN.
NOT IMPOSSIBLE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD REDEVELOP
AROUND JXN BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM BEFORE THE FRONT IS COMPLETELY
THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

BAND OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH STEADILY SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING. A CAP BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL ACT
TO KEEP IT DRY. LOOKS WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE SUBSIDENCE STRENGTHENS.

DIGGING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES BY EARLY TUESDAY. COULD BE
A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 94. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
STRONGER GUST POTENTIAL WITH ANY STORMS GIVEN THE INCREASING WIND
FIELDS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER 40 KNOTS AS WELL...SO SEVERE
POTENTIAL NEEDS TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. SOUNDINGS LOOK SATURATED
FOR A PERIOD TUESDAY AS PWAT VALUES CLIMB BACK UP TO AROUND 2
INCHES. LOCAL EXCESSIVE RAIN POSSIBLE.

WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS THROUGH DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

A RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS...ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE TRACKING DOWN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. IT WILL BE UNSTABLE OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
AND PWAT VALUES CLIMB BACK UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. WILL MAINTAIN
THE RISK FOR STORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER FOR THU AND FRI...ALTHOUGH SOME
LATE AFTERNOON STORMS COULD BEGIN TO ARRIVE IN WESTERN COUNTIES
LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH EAST OF JACKSON BY 12Z...LEAVING BEHIND
MVFR CLOUDS. ALONG THE LAKESHORE TO START THE PERIOD...IFR AND
LOWER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY...INCLUDING KMKG. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH VFR
WEATHER EXPECTED. LATER TONIGHT...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES. THIS ON COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TO THE TAF
SITES TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOME IMPACTS POSSIBLE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARD STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS RANGED FROM
2 TO 6 INCHES. THIS HAS LED TO ROAD WASHOUTS AND CLOSURES WITH A
FEW RISING RIVERS AND STREAMS. TRAVEL MAY CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING ACROSS IONIA...MONTCALM...AND GRATIOT
COUNTIES WHERE THERE IS STANDING WATER. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT IS NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO MORE THAN A HALF INCH OR SO
ON AVERAGE. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE BUT OVERALL WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY.

AS FOR THE RIVERS AND STREAMS...OUR MAIN CONCERN RESIDES WITH THE
PINE RIVER AT ALMA (JUST UNDER 5" OF RECORDED RAIN THERE). A RIVER
FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MINOR FLOODING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. RISES ON THE GRAND ARE EXPECTED WITH BANKFULL BEING
EXCEEDED AT IONIA. RISES ON THE MAPLE RIVER WILL ALSO SEND THE
RIVER ABOVE BANKFULL AT MAPLE RAPIDS. WE`LL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR
THE LOOKING GLASS RIVER AT EAGLE FOR READINGS NEAR BANKFULL. HIGH
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE ON THESE RIVERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...HOVING
MARINE...MEADE





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.