Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 150001

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
701 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018


Issued at 316 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018

Warmer weather is on the way for Thursday and temperatures will rise
well into the 40s. It`ll be short lived though as a cold front will
sweep across the state late in the day. Some fog and drizzle is
possible tonight and then rain is expected Thursday afternoon as low
pressure rides northeast along the cold front.

The weekend will be mostly dry as high pressure settles in. Next
week, however looks pretty wet and the potential for localized
flooding exists as a frontal boundary sets up over Lower Michigan
and areas of low pressure move along the boundary.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 316 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018

Forecast concerns in the short term deal with fog an drizzle
potential tonight and chances for rain Thursday afternoon and

Skies are clear this afternoon but a large area of stratus has
slowly been moving north across Indiana this afternoon and should
move across the cwa this evening. With the low cloud deck and some
lift within according to bufkit omega profiles, some drizzle and fog
seems possible tonight and we included in the grids. The south flow
will draw up warmer air Thursday ahead of a cold front that will
move south across the cwa late in the day. However, prior to the
cold front moving through, temperatures will climb into the 40s.

Both the gfs and ecmwf show low pressure forming along the wave over
Illinois and then moving northeast across southeast Lower Michigan
late Thursday. We have high pops south of I-96 to account for this.
As colder air filters in behind the cold front Thursday evening,
rain will eventually mix with and change to snow but no accumulation
is expected. Mainly dry weather is expected Friday and Friday night
as high pressure settles over the state.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018

The potential for quite a bit of rain is increasing as models
converge on a solution which includes a frontal boundary over the
cwa and waves of low pressure riding northeast along that boundary.

The weekend looks basically dry with highs in the 30s and even
warmer Monday and Tuesday as high pressure over the East Coast
produces a southwest wind flow over the Great Lakes. Low pressure
developing in the lee of the Rockies will move northeast toward
Minnesota Sunday and eventually pull a cold front south through
Michigan. As a deep upper trough develops over the Rockies, the
upper flow becomes southwesterly over Michigan Monday and the
frontal boundary will become stationary. Several short waves
ejecting out of the Rockies trough will induce waves of low pressure
across the Missouri Valley which will move along the frontal
boundary over the cwa and produce several rounds of rain from late
Monday through Wednesday. The gfs is a bit more progressive with the
sfc features. However, since it also keeps southwest flow aloft, the
more stationary ecmwf solution looks more reasonable. The ecmwf is
the wetter solution and would produce a couple inches of rain at
least. This would likely lead to localized flooding and so we`ll
keep an eye on this developing event.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 700 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018

Widespread IFR/LIFR cigs/vsbys due to stratus and fog will
rapidly surge into the area from south to north early this evening
and remain in place through Thursday morning. Some improvement in
cigs/vsbys will take place Thursday afternoon as scattered rain
showers pass through the area, with a mix of MVFR and IFR expected
after 18z.


Issued at 1028 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018

A warm up this week and up to a quarter inch of rain Thursday should
result in melting snow and ice, and rising river levels. This could
also result in shifting ice and additional ice jam formation.
Heavier rain and additional days with highs above freezing early
next week will lead to a greater concern for the possibility of
river flooding.

A flood advisory remains in effect for the Looking Glass River near
Eagle due to elevated levels of water/ice from an ice jam. River
levels in the vicinity of ice jams will continue to fluctuate by
several feet until the ice breaks free. An advisory has also been
issued for Sycamore Creek at Holt.




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