Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 170830
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL INCREASE AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS OVER
25 MPH WILL RESULT IN VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS BEGINNING
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL TO
NEAR ZERO BY BY TUESDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW THAT COULD POTENTIALLY BE HEAVY AT TIMES FOR
WEDNESDAY. UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
WEEK BEFORE TEMPERATURES FINALLY MODERATE SOMEWHAT FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AS UNSEASONABLY COLD ARCTIC AIR
POURS ACROSS LAKE MI. H8 TEMPS WILL FALL TO -17 TO -18 C BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND MODERATE LIFT WILL RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THAT
WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES. WEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP TO 20 TO 25
MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS THAT WILL CARRY LES
BANDS WELL INLAND.

TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BECOME VERY HAZARDOUS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMMUTE. WE HAVE UPGRADED ALL THE COUNTIES
THAT WERE IN A WINTER STORM WATCH INTO A WINTER STORM WARNING FROM
18Z THIS AFTN THROUGH MID EVENING TUESDAY. THE REST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA IS NOW UNDER A WINTER WX ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR THAT SAME TIME
FRAME.

SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH FAVORABLE VERY HIGH INVERSION HEIGHTS THAT
REALLY WILL NOT LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL LATE TUESDAY. H8 TEMPS
WILL STAY DOWN AROUND -18 C TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY YIELDING
EXTREME LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. 1000-850 MB CONVERGENCE ALSO
LOOKS IMPRESSIVE TONIGHT ALONG I-196 AND FURTHER EAST ALONG AND
BETWEEN THE I-96 AND I-94 CORRIDORS.

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE
WARNING AREA FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL
CAUSE VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. FOR THE COUNTIES IN THE
ADVISORY HEADLINE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH IMPACTS FROM BLOWING SNOW.
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE NATURE OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC WITH LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW EVENT FOR WEDNESDAY. AREAS NEAR TO WEST OF US-131
AND PARTICULARLY ALONG THE LAKESHORE FROM NEAR BIV/MKG NORTHWARD
COULD SEE PARTICULARLY HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES AS SUGGESTED BY VERY
STRONG 1000-850 MB CONVERGENCE ACROSS THAT AREA.

THANKS FOR EXTENSIVE COORD ON HEADLINE DECISIONS APX... IWX AND
DTX.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014

THE VERY WINTRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOWS PERSISTING RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE LAKE SNOW MACHINE SHOULD CONTINUE UNINTERRUPTED THROUGH
FRIDAY...ENHANCED AT TIMES BY UPPER SHORTWAVES THAT WILL GIVE A
BOOST TO THE LAKE EFFECT. ONE WAVE SHOULD BE SWINGING THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL
CONTINUE DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN LOWER.

THE PATTERN DOES UNDERGO A CHANGE HOWEVER INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
SHORT REPRIEVE INCLUDING DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
A SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL MOVE OUR DIRECTION
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BRINGING A SURGE OF WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW APPEARS LIKE A GOOD BET SATURDAY
NIGHT CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN ON SUNDAY...AS 850MB TEMPS WARM TO
+5/+6 VIA BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. AIR THIS WARM WILL LEAD TO
RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...WHICH WILL BE QUITE THE CHANGE AFTER
THE SNOW WE HAVE HAD AND THE WINTRY WEEK THAT IS JUST BEGINNING.
HIGHS IN THE 20S MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL BE REPLACED BY THE 40S ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014

PREDOMINATELY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE BITTER
COLD ARCTIC AIR INVADES THE REGION. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
CONSIDERABLY AND BECOME GUSTY WITH FREQUENT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING IN SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING
FOLLOWED BY A GALE WARNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT TO BELOW GALE FORCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUT THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING GALE FORCE WINDS
AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES ANTICIPATED DUE TO UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEK AND ALL PCPN WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. SOME
ICE DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ON AREA RIVERS THIS WEEK BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FOR THE WEEKEND THUS RESULTING IN
MINIMAL POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-044-050-056>058-064>066-071>073.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MIZ039-040-045-046-051-052-059-067-074.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ844>849.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS







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