Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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000
FXUS63 KGRR 190838
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
438 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. TONIGHT A CLIPPER SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THIS EVENT SHOULD
BE MOSTLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA STARTING A SLOW WARM UP THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

I WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE FOR OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND LET IT
EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE. MOST LOCATIONS ARE NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING
ALREADY AND MOST OF THE MESONET IN THE AREA OF THE FREEZE
HEADLINE AREA ALL BELOW FREEZING. I DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE MODELS FORECAST AND MOVE ON SHORE BUT
SINCE THEY ARE NOT THERE YET... TEMPERATURES HAVE A FEW MORE HOURS
TO FALL YET ANYWAY. BOTTOM LINE...THE FREEZE WARNING LOOKS GOOD.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT ISSUE IS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THAT CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES NORTH AND EAST OF THE GRR
CWA. WITH THE JET CORE GOING SOUTH OF MICHIGAN MONDAY THAT WOULD
SUGGEST AN OCCLUDED FRONT COMES THROUGH. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE
THERMAL RIDGE ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY MORNING. IN ANY EVENT THE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SHOW THE BEST THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS OVER EASTERN AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. EVEN SO WE
DO HAVE THE 1000/850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS AIMED AT US AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STILL NONE OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING MUCH QPF SO
I AM FAVORING LOW CHANCE POPS TONIGHT OVER OUR WESTERN CWA WITH
HIGHER POPS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE ARE IN THE COLD ADVECTION PART OF THE SYSTEM
THAT WOULD MEAN LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. WE STAY ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE POLAR JET TILL MID MORNING TUESDAY. HOWEVER THE MOISTURE DEPTH
FOR LAKE EFFECT IS NOT GREAT... MOSTLY UNDER 8000 FT AGL. UNLIKE
THE LAST EVENT WE DO NOT HAVE ANY LIFT IN THE CLOUD LAYER SHOWN ON
BUFKIT ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. 850 TEMPS ARE NOT NEARLY AS COLD WITH
THIS EVENT EITHER. SO BOTTOM LIKE I HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT BUT I AM THINKING WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF QPF.

ONCE THE POLAR JET GETS EAST OF THE AREA MID MORNING TUESDAY SKIES
WILL CLEAR AND WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AND PRODUCE FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY BUT IT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE APPROXIMATELY FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO LOWER CLOUDS AROUND TO AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. WIND SPEEDS
AOB 10 KTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AT 10 TO 15 KTS
LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

ON FARTHER CONSIDERATING...SINCE I EXPECT WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS... IT MAKES SENSE
TO GET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVIOSRY OUT. SO I HAVE NOW DONE JUST THAT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WITH VERY LITTLE QPF EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT WEEK OR SO... I
WOULD THINK OVERALL RIVER LEVELS WILL SLOWLY FALL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ056-064-071-
     072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM





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