Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 281750
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
150 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING SOME
RAIN BY EVENING. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
BEFORE FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER MOVES IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST BY THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR A SLOWER
ARRIVAL. WE HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING THE
BULK OF THE RAIN THROUGH ON SATURDAY. HI RES MODELS SHOW A DIURNAL
WEAKENING TREND TODAY WITH THE CONVECTION OVER IOWA ATTM AS IT
MOVES EAST AND WE DONT EXPECT STRONG CONVECTION WITH WEAK SHEAR
AND LIMITED INSTABILITY BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A SLOW CLEARING TREND BEGINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST AND HEIGHTS RISE BY SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

HOT AND DRY. THE ECMWF/GFS/FIM ALL AGREE THAT HEAT WILL BUILD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SHORT WAVES WILL BE PUSHED WELL NORTHWEST OF
THE THE CWA LEADING TO GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WITH A DECENT CAP IN
PLACE. SO EVEN THOUGH HUMIDITY WILL RISE AS SOUTH FLOW ADVECTS 60S
DEWPOINTS INTO THE CWA RESULTING IN INCREASED AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH OF A KICKER TO GET ANYTHING
GOING. IT/S POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP WED/THU
AFTERNOON ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE. LATEST ECMWF ALSO HINTS AT A SHORT
WAVE ROUNDING THE UPPER PART OF THE RIDGE THURSDAY WHICH MAY HELP TO
GENERATE A STORM.

HIGHS WILL SETTLE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE
RIDGING IN PLACE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AIR QUALITY ALERTS
ISSUED. WE/LL KEEP AN EYE ON THAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

OUR FOCUS WITH THE 18Z FCSTS WILL BE ON RAIN TRENDS THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HRS.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN THIS EVENING...MAINLY AT KMKG AND
AREAS NORTH AFTER 02-04Z. THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO STAY THERE
THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT. INDICATIONS AT THIS TIME ARE THAT WE
WILL SEE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES AT KMKG IN THE RAIN...WITH
LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED NORTH OF THERE. SOUTH OF KMKG...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED WITH ONLY A SMALL CHC OF A SHOWER.

THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT MORNING. WE WILL THEN SEE
RAIN CHCS INCREASE FOR THE SRN TERMINALS AFTER 14-16Z FROM WEST TO
EAST. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH 18Z WITH A CHC OF
SOME LOWER CONDITIONS. THE BETTER CHCS FOR RAIN AND LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY COME AFTER 18Z SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BLO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. MUCH OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE
UNDER AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOWER COULD SEE HEAVIER RAINS. AT THIS POINT RIVER LEVELS SHOULD
REMAIN LOW INTO NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING IN LOW
LYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER INTO SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...63/JK
MARINE...OSTUNO



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