Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 161816
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
Issued by National Weather Service LAKE CHARLES LA
1216 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR this afternoon for most of the TAF sites except for the
lagging KIAH/KUTS site which currently have MVFR but should be
VFR by 19Z. A few renegade showers may close in on KCLL between
19-21Z timeframe this afternoon as showers to the southwest
possibly move into the TAF site and then exit to the north.
Hoping for a better night with mainly MVFR expected. KCXO may yet
see another round of VLIFR/IFR possible with a mix of CIGS and
VISBY late tonight through early tomorrow morning. After morning
fog lifts, MVFR ceiling could linger still little into the late
morning especially KHOU/KIAH/KCXO/KUTS. A cold front will move
through the area during the day on Saturday and end the pesky fog
pattern. 06

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED Issued by National Weather Service LAKE CHARLES LA/

UPDATE...
Fog has all but dissipated except for the northeast part of the
area where thick cloud cover has not allowed much surface heating
to mix out the fog. However...visibilities and cloud heights are
rising and this area will continue to improve through the
remainder of the morning. Updated to add a few more clouds this
afternoon as RAP/GFS both continue to forecast higher RH fields at
both 5K and 10K. Current temperatures are 2-5 degrees warmer at
first glance compared to yesterday...however...with advertised
thicker cloud cover above...may begin to see some slowing effects
on temperatures going forward into afternoon. This has been taken
into account on high forecast temperatures already...so no plans
on updating temperatures. Winds should remain light inland to just
a tad higher along the coast. Will update forecast to remove fog
wording and increase cloud cover.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Along with the foggy start across much of SE TX, we are also be-
ginning to see isolated/widely scattered showers develop just to
the west of the CWA this morning. This activity should move into
the our NW counties later this morning and is courtesy of a dis-
turbance (embedded within the upper flow) approaching from the W
and NW. Despite the somewhat limited moisture/cap...there should
be enough lift to produce a least some light rainfall totals. We
should be seeing an end to this activity later this afternoon as
this system tracks east of the area.

While the possibility of any other disturbances moving in cannot
be totally discounted...POPS should be minimal until the passage
of the strong cold front on Sat. And even then, the progged cap/
persistence of very dry air aloft will likely help to keep storm
development limited. Much cooler and drier air will be moving in
Sat night/Sun.

Looking ahead, there is still a lot of uncertainty with the fore-
cast for next week. Long-range global models remain on mostly op-
posite ends with ECMWF staying wet/active and the GFS not so much.
However, for what it`s worth, the Canadian appears to be trending
a bit more with the ECMWF and as such, will keep with this in the
extended grids. 41

MARINE...
Southeast to south winds near 10 knots on tap today and tonight then
strengthening and becoming south to southwest Friday. Winds/seas may
even reach SCEC with the southwesterly flow Friday night and
Saturday morning. A potent cold front sweeps through SETX Saturday
and across the coastal waters late Saturday afternoon and early
evening. SCA conditions with northerly winds 20-30 knots and gusty
with chaotic seas that last through Sunday morning then relaxing
gradually in the afternoon and evening. Winds turn back around to
the east and southeast by Monday night as upper trough rotates
through. Still some big uncertainty to Tuesday through Thanksgiving
for the area depending on the evolution of the upper
trough...forecast confidence beyond Tuesday is low.
45

AVIATION...
Mid level deck has played a big part in reducing area of VLIFR/LIFR
for UTS-IAH-HOU-SGR westward with these sites riding along the edge
of low CIGS creeping in underneath the eastern edge of the mid level
deck. Temperatures beneath the mid level deck warmed with a little
more wind while east of the deck fog prevails. The VFR deck should
last through the early afternoon. A shortwave racing through NM
should sweep through SETX this morning and will see some
showers/light rain develop mainly across the CLL-UTS-CXO terminals
in response. May need to add VCSH to IAH for a few hours near 16z.
Strengthening WAA will likely bring a round of MVFR CIGS to the area
tonight and possibly a few showers near the coast toward morning
Friday.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      78  67  82  65  78 /  20  10  10  10  20
Houston (IAH)              79  66  81  69  81 /  20  10  10  10  20
Galveston (GLS)            77  70  77  71  79 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...08
Aviation/Marine...99


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