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000
FXUS63 KILX 030540
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1140 PM CST Mon Dec 2 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 905 PM CST Mon Dec 2 2013

Lower clouds are beginning to move out of the area, but higher
clouds are advecting into the area. So, mostly cloudy skies will
continue overnight. Temperatures in areas where clouds have
cleared have already fallen to below forecasted lows, so an update
to lows will be necessary, even if it is just steady temperatures
overnight. Remainder of the forecast looks ok. Updated forecast
should be out shortly.

Auten
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1140 PM CST Mon Dec 2 2013

Lower clouds continue to move northeast out of the area, but are
affecting BMI for another hour or two, and may affect CMI for an
hour. Reminder of the sites have only a large mid deck of clouds
around 12kft moving over them; which will affect BMI and CMI
shortly. Light fog remains an issue as well and will it will
remain foggy at all sites overnight and into the morning hours.
Vis could get lower in the morning hours so have kept a TEMPO
group at all sites for the early morning hours around sunrise. The
mid clouds around 10kft will continue into the afternoon at all
sites and into the evening hours. However, SPI and DEC appear to
become clear around sunset, while the other sites keep clouds over
them. Winds will be southeast to start and then become more
southerly during the day.

Auten
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 257 PM CST Mon Dec 2 2013

A slow moving area of low pressure continues to get organized over
the northern Plains, with a warm front extending southeast along
the Missouri/Illinois border. The front will lift through the
forecast area by Tuesday, reinforcing our recent trend of days
with above normal temperatures. However, once the cold front with
this system arrives by late Wednesday, sharply colder conditions
will be with us for the foreseeable future. Main forecast concerns
today revolve around the speed of arrival of the approaching
system`s cold front, as well as the local thermal
profile/precipitation type for later Thursday into Friday as a
strong disturbance rides northeast along the front (which will
have stalled south of the Ohio River by that time).

There continues to be model disagreement with respect to the
approach/passage of the cold front for midweek. The synoptic U.S
models continue to be the quickest (front coming through during
day Wednesday, while the ECMWF/Canadian are several hours slower
(front coming through Wednesday night). Both model camps have had
at least a few runs of consistency between them. The faster speed
of the U.S. models is driven by a chunk of energy in the
developing western U.S. trof shunting along the northern tier of
states and developing a stronger surface low with it. The slower
solutions keep most of the energy in the mean trof and only give
the plains low a gradual push east. Have shaded forecast toward
the faster solutions, although confidence in the ultimate outcome
is still low.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday: Mostly cloudy and mild
conditions are expected across the region into Wednesday, with
predominantly southerly low level flow in place and favorable
moisture parameters for cloud development/persistence.

While a few sprinkles can not be ruled out tonight or early
Tuesday as the warm front lifts north, significant rainfall is
not expected. The arctic cold front for Wednesday is also not
expected to be a significant rain producer due to the shallow
moisture depth associated with it. Wednesday night and into
Thursday, as the cold air spills into the area behind the front,
the precipitation appears likely to shut off before the vertical
profile cools enough to support snow.

The front is expected to become parallel to upper level flow by
early Thursday, stalling south of the Ohio River Valley. Then, a
140+ kt jet streak and accompanying wave will track along the
frontal boundary, triggering a widespread area of precipitation.
The heaviest precipitation should fall south of the forecast area,
closer to the stalled front, but most of the forecast area should
see some precipitation.

Across most of the forecast area, the thermal profile supports all
snow, but areas along/south of the I-70 corridor have a better
chance for mixed precipitation. Surface temperatures will be
critical in determining if any of the liquid rainfall freezes, but
there is not enough confidence to pin point the threat just yet.
If a majority of the precipitation in our southeast counties falls
as snow with the frontal wave, a few inches of accumulation is
certainly possible.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Monday: Quiet and colder than normal
conditions will be in place to start the weekend, but another wave
is expected to eject out of the mean western U.S. trof by Sunday.
This wave will bring another chance of snow to the area. At this
point, any accumulation with this next system appears minor. Well
below normal temperatures should be the rule through the period,
and no significant warm up is evident, even beyond this forecast
period.

Bak


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$