Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 180922
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
322 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Closed upper low evident on 08z/2am water vapor imagery over western
Arkansas will track slowly eastward into the Tennessee River Valley
today.  Mid/high clouds associated with this feature will spill into
central Illinois, resulting in mostly cloudy conditions across the
E/SE KILX CWA.  Several models are hinting at some light QPF
along/south of I-70: however, a pronounced dry layer below 700mb
will prevent any measurable precip from reaching the ground.  With
some top-down moistening taking place and ceilings dropping to
around 6000-8000ft, decided to include scattered sprinkles along and
south of an Effingham to Casey line.  Due to cloud cover and lower
mixing heights, high temperatures today will be slightly cooler than
yesterday...with readings topping out in the lower to middle 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Once the low exits the region, upper heights will once again rise
over the Midwest...with both the GFS and ECMWF showing the 576dm
500mb height line building into central Illinois.  Thanks to the
unseasonably high heights and a good deal of sunshine, high
temperatures on Sunday will climb into the upper 60s to around 70
degrees.  Even warmer readings in the lower to perhaps middle 70s
will be likely on Monday before an approaching storm system spreads
clouds and showers into the area.  The GFS has been trending faster
with this system over the past few runs: however, think its solution
is suspect...especially given the strong ridging in place. Therefore
prefer the slower ECMWF/GEM solution which keeps most of the precip
west of the Mississippi River until Monday afternoon/evening.  With
surface dewpoints rising into the middle to upper 50s, NAM indicates
MUCAPE values will reach 400-800J/kg late Monday afternoon and
evening, supporting a chance for a few thunderstorms.  Weak cold
front will gradually push through central Illinois on Tuesday, with
showers coming to an end from west to east by afternoon.  Despite
FROPA, near record high temperatures in the middle to upper 60s will
continue through Thursday.

After that...models are showing an even stronger system approaching
by the end of the week.  Minor timing differences still exist:
however, consensus brings a cold front through central Illinois by
midday Friday.  With ample low-level moisture in place and strong
upper dynamics associated with the approaching wave, think thunder
is once again a good bet...especially Thursday night into Friday
morning.  Once the front passes, much cooler air will be drawn
southward into the region by next weekend...with temperatures
dropping back to near normal for this time of year by next Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Little overall change in the forecast from earlier this
evening as high clouds continue to shift north into southern
Illinois. Not expecting cloud bases to be below 10,000 ft
across our southern TAF sites late tonight into Saturday as
the system and its rain passes well to our south. Further
north, not much more than some scattered to broken cirrus
during the period. Models continue to indicate some borderline
LLWS at PIA overnight but the trend over the past couple of
model runs has been to back off the wind speeds. Surface winds
at all TAF locations will continue from a southerly direction
overnight at 7 to 12 kts and turn more into a southwest to west
direction on Saturday with speeds holding in the 7 to 12 kt range.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 339 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Record Highs / Record Warm Lows - Friday Feb 17th...
Peoria........ 64 / 47
Lincoln....... 63 / 47
Springfield... 68 / 52
Champaign..... 69 / 47
Bloomington... 64 / 45
Decatur....... 61 / 48
Danville...... 71 / 51
Galesburg..... 60 / 43
Charleston.... 72 / 56
Effingham..... 68 / 49

Record Highs / Record Warm Lows - Saturday Feb 18th...
Peoria........ 63 / 42
Lincoln....... 63 / 39
Springfield... 65 / 43
Champaign..... 65 / 42
Bloomington... 63 / 44
Decatur....... 70 / 43
Danville...... 67 / 49
Galesburg..... 63 / 43
Charleston.... 68 / 48
Effingham..... 70 / 44

Record Highs / Record Warm Lows - Sunday Feb 19th...
Peoria........ 71 / 50
Lincoln....... 71 / 46
Springfield... 70 / 54
Champaign..... 68 / 46
Bloomington... 70 / 47
Decatur....... 66 / 48
Danville...... 70 / 54
Galesburg..... 63 / 52
Charleston.... 72 / 53
Effingham..... 70 / 45

Record Highs / Record Warm Lows - Monday Feb 20th...
Peoria........ 68 / 46
Lincoln....... 70 / 46
Springfield... 74 / 46
Champaign..... 71 / 45
Bloomington... 67 / 45
Decatur....... 70 / 47
Danville...... 70 / 48
Galesburg..... 64 / 41
Charleston.... 73 / 48
Effingham..... 68 / 54

Record Highs / Record Warm Lows - Tuesday Feb 21st...
Peoria........ 69 / 46
Lincoln....... 69 / 45
Springfield... 69 / 48
Champaign..... 67 / 47
Bloomington... 69 / 46
Decatur....... 68 / 48
Danville...... 67 / 50
Galesburg..... 68 / 40
Charleston.... 71 / 52
Effingham..... 73 / 52

Record Highs / Record Warm Lows - Wednesday Feb 22nd...
Peoria........ 71 / 51
Lincoln....... 71 / 52
Springfield... 71 / 53
Champaign..... 69 / 49
Bloomington... 70 / 53
Decatur....... 72 / 51
Danville...... 71 / 54
Galesburg..... 61 / 45
Charleston.... 71 / 52
Effingham..... 74 / 55

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith
CLIMATE...07


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