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000
FXUS63 KILX 241723
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1123 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Only made some minor adjustments to the forecast for today, namely
in the sky trends. Patch of stratocumulus has cleared much of the
forecast area as of late morning, and was mainly from Mattoon-
Champaign eastward. This should move out by midday. Some patches
of higher clouds will drift through during the day, with a general
increase in high clouds late ahead of the next storm system.

Early look at the 12Z models shows a continued slight southward
shift in the track of the incoming storm system. This would
indicate the potential for some higher snow accumulations than
what we have going now, especially north of the I-74 corridor.
Will more thoroughly analyze this over the next couple hours
before making any adjustments.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A weak surface trof is expected to push across the area this morning
switching our winds more into a west to northwest direction. In
addition, latest satellite data and surface observations indicate
another band of clouds approaching from the northwest, immediately
behind the weak frontal boundary. Based on its current movement, it
appears the eastern half of the forecast area will be affected the
most from the southeastward moving clouds later this morning. This
will have an impact on afternoon highs with our east and northeast
counties trending a bit below guidance, with low to mid 40s common,
while over west central and southwest Illinois, not as much cloud
cover is expected and as a result we should push into the mid or
upper 40s this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

00Z forecast model suite has trended further south and west surface
low pressure track going SE into central IA (1003 mb) by 06Z/midnight
tonight, into south central IL by 18Z/noon Sunday, and nearing the
eastern KY and WV border by 06Z/midnight Sunday night. Have trended
a bit higher with qpf over central IL Sunday along with cooler temps
Sunday/Sunday night and bringing chances of snow further south with
the cooler air/further south track of storm system. Have increasing
chances of light rain after midnight tonight over central IL with
just slight chances of light rain late tonight in southeast IL from
I-70 southeast. Light snow could mix with light rain late tonight
north of I-74, but most areas should be rain overnight with lows in
the low to mid 30s. Raised pops to 60-90% Sunday with highest pops
northern counties where rain changes to snow especially late Sunday
morning/afternoon. Have snow chances as far south as I-70 by late
Sunday afternoon with southeast IL seeing light snow too during
Sunday evening before ending overnight Sunday night. Have 1-2 inches
of snow NE of a Canton to Lincoln to Paris line Sunday and Sunday
evening with locally higher amounts 2-3 inches in far NE CWA. A
winter weather advisory may eventually be needed in NE counties but
will issue SPS for now due to models shifting track of low pressure
past few runs. Highs Sunday range from mid 30s northern counties to
40-45F from Springfield to Terre Haute south with mid 40s near
Lawrenceville. Temperatures will likely be slipping Sunday
afternoon.

Another clipper system diving SE across the western Great Lakes
Monday and Monday night to bring a chance of light snow showers to
northern/NE counties with best chances of accumulating light snow
appears to be NE of central IL. Highs Monday range from low to mid
30s from I-74 NE to the upper 30s to around 40F in SW counties. Dry
conditions expected Tue/Wed as high pressure settles into the upper
MS river valley Tue and into the Ohio river valley Wed. Highs in the
mid 30s to near 40F on Tue and climbing into the upper 30s to mid
40s Wed, with upper 40s from Jacksonville SW.

Surface low pressure system tracks into the Midwest and southern
Great Lakes region Wed night and Thu bringing a 20-30% chance of
light rain/snow. Models have trended quicker with this feature.
Above normal highs Thursday in the low to mid 40s with upper 40s in
southeast IL. Temps then cool behind this feature with highs in the
30s Friday and even colder temperatures expected next weekend with
another chance of light snow next Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Main forecast issue will be with deteriorating conditions late
tonight and Sunday morning. VFR conditions on tap through about
08Z at all sites, with a lowering ceiling ahead of a storm system
moving in from the northwest. The latest models have trended a bit
southward with the track, with KPIA/KBMI likely seeing IFR/LIFR
ceilings and visibilities develop after 12Z as rain mixes with,
then changes to snow. Forecast soundings off the NAM also indicate
some sleet mixed in for a couple hours before the full changeover.
Winds at these sites will become easterly in the morning. Further
south, the low is projected to be just west of KSPI by late
morning, which will keep winds more southeasterly from KSPI-KCMI
until midday. At these sites, ceilings will quickly fall into MVFR
range as rain develops, but any switch to snow appears most likely
after 18Z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Geelhart