Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 262344

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
644 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Moisture channel imagery still shows upper wave tracking slowly
east over eastern IA. This is dragging the surface low to the east
over northern IL. Cold front over southeast IA, still moving to the
east and will be crossing through region overnight. With the
eastward movement of the front, low clouds will flow into the region
ahead of the front. Clouds with ample moisture will remain in the
region overnight to midday before slowly improving. As for the
rainfall, showers ans storm band from northern IL to MO has been
slowly moving east through the day. This trend will continue, and
with limited instability and weak forcing, rain will be mostly
showers with some scattered embedded storms, that will last through
the evening, before exiting the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

High pressure will start to push off to our east Thursday night into
Friday morning allowing a southerly flow to develop over the
forecast area. Coolest temperatures will be across the east by
Friday morning closer to the surface ridge axis. Further west,
looks like a quick drop in temperatures Thursday evening and then
more or less a steady temperature regime will set up overnight as
the south winds build in.

Gusty southerly winds on Friday ahead of our next weather system
will help drive afternoon temepratures well above normal again with
readings in the lower to middle 70s. A relatively mild night for
Friday night as southerly winds hold up through a good portion of
the night as a weak cold front settles south into far southern
Wisconsin or northern Illinois by Saturday morning. Saturday looks
to be our warmest day just ahead of the front with afternoon
temperatures soaring well into the 70s with an 80 possible over
southeast Illinois Saturday afternoon.

Models showing some differences with respect to how quickly the
boundary will shift into southern Illinois with the latest ECMWF
model slower with the southward push. Weak isentropic lift will
start to develop to our south Saturday night/Sunday morning, at
least if the GFS forecast is correct, with models also indicating
a weakness in the flow aloft tracking across the Northern Plains.
Forecast soundings continue to depict a rather dry atmosphere in
place across our area, but the combination of the weak isentropic
ascent along and to the north of the frontal boundary and forcing
associated with the mid level shortwave to our north may be enough
to produce some sprinkles or light showers across our north and
east later Saturday night into early Sunday.

Weak high pressure will then settle across the region Sunday night
into early Monday before another fairly significant shortwave tracks
int the Plains early next week helping to pump up the ridge over the
central U.S. This should bring a return to well above normal
temperatures early next week with some of the EC guid indicating
low 80s possible Monday afternon as a gusty southerly wind develops
across the forecast area. Really no sign of any significant buckling
in the flow across Canada as the main belt of westerlies stays
north keeping our temperatures warm through the end of October.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

MVFR ceilings and diminishing showers will prevail this evening as
a cold front approaches the central IL terminals and crosses over
the area by midnight. Behind the cold front...model cross sections
and upstream observations suggest IFR ceilings will become
predominant. Expecting daytime heating and high pressure building
into the region will allow ceilings to gradually lift and scatter
out late morning through afternoon Thursday. Winds SW7-12 kts
until frontal passage this evening...becoming NW 6-12 kts.


.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



SHORT TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Onton is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.