Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 030847
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
247 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Freezing rain and sleet developed over western Illinois around
midnight and quickly tracked east over all but extreme southeast
Illinois by 08z/2am. Already seeing the back edge of our second
band of wintry precip entering west central Illinois, so it appears
we will have a brief lull in the freezing rain and sleet. However,
the latest HRRR suggests another band of rain, freezing rain and
sleet will move northeast across our area at or just after dawn.
Rainfall rates have not been much with these quick moving bands
of freezing rain/sleet with most areas seeing less than 0.05" per
hour, but certainly enough for some light icing to occur on bridge
decks and overpasses and on lesser traveled roads.

RAP forecast soundings continue to suggest temperatures will rise
above the freezing mark over southeast Illinois by dawn...central
sections of the forecast area by 900 am...and between 10 am and Noon
roughly along and north of the Interstate 74 corridor. By late
morning into the afternoon hours the stronger lift associated with
the low level warm advection/ isentropic ascent shifts off to our
east and southeast with a gradual lowering of POPs warranted from
northwest to southeast. Best 850-700 forcing edges into southeast IL
by mid to late afternoon where our highest POPs will be located.
Guidance temperatures look reasonable for this afternoon with highs
ranging from the upper 30s far north to the upper 40s far southeast.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Current system will not fully clear our area until Thursday, as the
trailing end of the cold front becomes parallel to the upper flow
over the Ohio Valley. Most of the evening models keep the threat for
precipitation from about I-70 southward, although the NAM has a
secondary surge on Wednesday afternoon all the way up to about I-72.
Leaning more toward the ECMWF/GFS blend for PoP`s tonight and
Wednesday. Lingering precip north of I-70 should end this evening,
but kept higher PoP`s all night into Wednesday. This evening, most
areas will see the precipitation switch briefly to snow before
ending, with little accumulation. While the transition to snow south
of I-70 occurs late tonight, temperatures will be supportive of all
snow through Wednesday. Greatest snow amounts expected near the Ohio
Valley, but currently think that 1 to 3 inches in southeast Illinois
is likely. Light snow will linger into Wednesday night before ending
late.

The other feature of note is what hopefully will be the last Arctic
blast of the winter. Digging upper trough currently coming into
Manitoba will spread a chunk of unseasonably cold air over much of
the Midwest Wednesday and Thursday, with 850 mb temperatures down
into the -18C range by Thursday morning. Highs both days will
struggle to get out of the teens in some areas -- normal highs are
well into the 40s by now -- and lows Thursday morning should be a
few degrees either side of zero. Current indications are that a wind
chill advisory would be needed across the northern CWA Wednesday
night and early Thursday, as the system to our south keeps the winds
up and slows the arrival of high pressure.

Heading into the weekend and early next week, 40s should become more
widespread, and the latest 8-14 day outlook introduces a foreign
concept called "above normal temperatures".


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

Freezing rain and sleet is still expected to move into the area
and effect all the TAFs in the next 1 to 3 hours, starting in SPI
and PIA and then move east. The pcpn will start as a mix of FZRA
and PL given how dry the lower layers are. Then in a few hours, it
will change over to all FZRA and then last until morning, when the
temp rises to above freezing. Expecting the FZRA to last around
4hrs at each site. Cigs and vis will be VFR to start but then drop
into the IFR category later overnight. The rain will end at the
sites late afternoon or early evening as the front moves through.
Winds will be southeast and then become south during the morning,
then become westerly when the front moves through. Could be some
gusts to around 22kts in the morning and afternoon.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM CST this morning FOR
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Auten





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