Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 271947
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
247 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

19Z/2PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
DANVILLE TO NEAR SAINT LOUIS.  BAND OF ENHANCED CU CONTINUES TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...HOWEVER ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED
ON RADAR NEAR THE INDIANA BORDER ACROSS EDGAR COUNTY.  LATEST
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPES IN THE 500
TO 1500J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  IN ADDITION...0-6KM BULK
SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK AT LESS THAN 20KT.  DUE TO THESE UNFAVORABLE
CONDITIONS...THINK ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  BOUNDARY
WILL SAG SOUTHWARD TO NEAR I-70 BY 00Z...SO HAVE INCLUDED A 20 POP
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST KILX CWA THROUGH MID-EVENING.  AFTER
THAT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.  A
SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY TRICKLE IN FROM THE
WEST...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPPER AIR AND MOISTURE CHANNEL SATELLITE DATA DEPICTS UPPER WAVE
OVER IL MOVING EAST WHICH WILL ALLOW SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY.

SYSTEM NOW IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THEN MOVES INTO THE PLAINS, TO
DRAG A ALOW MOVING FRONTAL TOWARD AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRINGS INCREASED CHANCE OF STORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. INSTABILITY A BIT LIMITED BUT WITH
FRONT TO WEST, CHANCE OF MARGINAL SEVERE ON FRIDAY WITH APPROACHING
FRONT.

MOST SIGNIFICANT RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE FRONT
PROGGED TO CROSS INTO AREA. MODELS ARE PRETTY MUCH SIMILAR ON
EXPECTED FRONTAL TIMING.

FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY SATURDAY, BUT WITH WEAK UPPER TROUGH FORMING
OVER MID MS VALLEY, THE MOISTURE AND SHOWERS ARE SLOW TO CLEAR AND
SO CHANCE POPS OVER AREA INTO SUNDAY AND SOUTHEAST EARLY MONDAY.

RAINFALL WILL FOR MOST PART BY A PROLONGED PERIOD, WITH SLOW MOVING
FRONT AND SO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST AREAS WILL HAVE MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL, BUT WITH ONLY MINOR EXPECTED FLOODING
POSSIBLE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER TILL MIDWEEK
WITH NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY EASTWARD EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH 17Z/12PM OBS SHOWING IT APPROACHING THE I-55
CORRIDOR. EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS HAD PREVIOUSLY SPREAD PLENTY OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER THESE HAVE RAPIDLY DEPARTED OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. CU-FIELD HAS SINCE DEVELOPED IN ITS WAKE
ALONG/NEAR THE BOUNDARY...WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY AROUND 3500FT.
HAVE EVEN SEEN A FEW WEAK RADAR ECHOES...SUGGESTING THE
POSSIBILITY OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON
SATELLITE TIMING TOOLS...HAVE INCLUDED LOW VFR CEILINGS AND VCSH
AT THE TAF SITES UNTIL AFTER THE 20-22Z TIME FRAME WHEN DIURNAL
CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE/PUSH FURTHER EAST. WINDS ARE INITIALLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL VEER TO THE W/NW
AS THE FRONT PASSES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. ONCE THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...LIGHT SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...GOETSCH
AVIATION...BARNES



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