Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 231549

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1049 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016

Issued at 1049 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

15z/10am surface analysis shows cold front extending from central
Iowa into eastern Kansas. Ahead of the front, strong southerly
flow is transporting much warmer air into central Illinois...with
latest obs indicating wind gusts of around 20mph across the
Illinois River Valley. Based on 12z KILX/KDVN upper air soundings,
it appears mixing will take place up to about 875mb. Regional VAD
wind profilers show 925mb winds of 30-35mph...which will mix down
later this morning into the afternoon, yielding surface wind
gusts of 25 to 30mph. Given full sunshine and strong southwesterly
winds, current temps have already risen into the upper 50s and
lower 60s. Taking a parcel dry adiabatically from 875mb to the
surface results in an afternoon high temperature of 75 degrees at
KILX. Have therefore adjusted afternoon highs upward by 1-2
degrees...ranging from the lower 70s near the Indiana border to
the middle 70s along/west of I-55.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Breezy and unseasonably warm conditions are expected across central
and southeast Illinois today in advance of a cold front. This front
will be driven by a fast moving short wave. The wave is currently
located over the northern Plains/southern Canadian Prairies, and
should reach the mid-Atlantic states by Monday morning. Expect the
front to clear the forecast area during the afternoon and evening
hours today, but not before gusty southwesterly winds ahead of the
front push temperatures into the 70s. The local airmass will be too
dry for rainfall with the frontal passage, and cloud cover should be
minimal as well. Cooler temperatures, but more normal for late
October, will filter across the area tonight behind the front.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Pleasant stretch of fall weather to continue through Tuesday across
central and southeast IL as dry conditions are expected to continue.
1030 mb settles into the Midwest on Monday. This to bring a fair
amount of sunshine Monday with seasonable highs in the lower to
middle 60s, with mildest readings in sw CWA. A seasonably cool night
expected Monday night with high pressure nearby. Lowered lows a bit
more into the upper 30s and lower 40s with coolest readings ne half
of CWA. Mid and high clouds to increase over nw CWA later Monday
night and increase over central IL on Tue with next wx system moving
into the central plains. Plenty of sunshine expected again on Tue
over southeast IL. Highs Tue of 60-65F and again mildest SW CWA.

A mid level trof to move east into IL by sunset Wed with surface low
pressure still expected to track north of central IL, moving over
southern WI Wed night. Continued small chances of showers and
isolated thunderstorms nw of IL river later Tue night. Then chances
of showers and isolated thunderstorms increase from west to east
during the day Wed and then decrease from west to east by overnight
Wed night. Highs Wed to range from upper 50s to around 60F from
Peoria north to the upper 60s south of I-70. Fairly progressive
upper level flow to push wx system east of IL by Thu morning with
dry conditions expected over IL on Thu and cooler temps. Highs in
the upper 50s/lower 60s Thu as skies become partly to mostly sunny
Thu. Dry conditions expected Thu night and Friday as another high
pressure settles into the Great Lakes region.

A northern stream system to skirt across the region from overnight
Fri night into Sat evening and could bring a chance of showers.
Highs still above normal in the 60s Friday-Sunday with lows in the
upper 40s and lower 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 657 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Primary aviation weather concern across the central Illinois
terminals through the 12Z TAF valid revolves around winds. Gusty
southwest winds will develop later this morning ahead of an
approaching cold front. Winds will shift northwest and taper off
later this afternoon or this evening behind the front. Otherwise,
quiet/VFR conditions are anticipated.


.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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