Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 240830
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
330 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WILL NOT LAST LONG AS IT IS MOVING
NORTH AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING. REMAINDER OF
THE PCPN SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA BUT SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS
MORNING. SO CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING IN THE WEST WILL BECOME LIKELY
LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY POPS
WILL REMAIN WEST OF I-55 TODAY. WILL GO WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BELIEVE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY...WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25MPH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BEING AN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. DAYTIME
HIGHS COULD BE TEMPERED SOME THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THICKER CLOUDS AND
PCPN EXIST...SO WARMER TEMPS WILL BE IN THE EAST WHERE RAIN WILL
HOLD OFF THE LONGEST AND CLOUDS SHOULD BE LITTLE THINNER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

FORECAST WARM AND MUGGY WITH A LOT OF CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT. REGION DOMINATED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER TROF IN THE SW.  A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE PATTERN MID WEEK IS ONLY TEMPORARY AS TEMPS
REMAIN WARM WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ONLY REINFORCED BY PERIODIC
SHOWERS ENHANCING THE BOUNDARY LAYER RH.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW
OFF TO THE WEST MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDWEST.  RICH MOISTURE AND
WARM TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF WARM AND MUGGY
WEATHER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND AT LEAST INTO THE FIRST PART OF
MEMORIAL DAY. MODELS STILL SHIFTING THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS ARE MOVING THE
PRECIP THROUGH, THE ATMOSPHERE MAINTAINS A BIT OF INSTABILITY IN THE
AFTERNOON.  CONCERNED THAT THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE CLEARING. HOWEVER, THE LACK OF FOCUS/CONVERGENCE IN THE
WAKE OF EXITING STORMS, KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY IN AT LEAST THE
EARLY EVENING.  THIS STORY MAY CHANGE QUICKLY WITH ANY MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND FROM TONIGHT AND TOMORROW EARLY.  WITH OR
WITHOUT AFTERNOON STORMS, MONDAY GOING TO BE BREEZY. MOMENTUM
TRANSFER EITHER FROM THE SHOWERS, OR JUST WITH DIURNAL MIXING WILL
RESULT IN GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER SURFACE LOW FINALLY LIFTING INTO THE MIDWEST MOVING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY.  MORE SHOWERS ANTICIPATED
FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MUGGY AIRMASS.  FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WEAK AT BEST AND WILL ONLY SEE A BRIEF SFC WIND
SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY FROM SOUTHERLY FOR WED AND WED NIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF PATTERN SHIFT ALOFT.  CHANGE IS ONLY
TEMPORARY AS SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS REESTABLISH BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP FOR YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
ACTIVE WEATHER FOR A WET WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND 18Z...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL
PRODUCING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED MVFR OR WORSE CIGS/VSBY.
INITIALLY...LIGHT AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREAD INTO AREAS
FROM KPIA-KSPI WESTWARD PRIOR TO 18Z WITH VFR CEILINGS CONTINUING.
SPATIO-TEMPORAL DETAILS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z ARE
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AND COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE NON-
PREDOMINANT...SO HAVE INCORPORATED VCSH/VCTS WITH SCATTERED CB AT
2.5-3 KFT AGL IN TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WINDS
SE 5-7 KTS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS AND BECOMING
SOUTHERLY LATE MORNING SUNDAY. SLIGHT DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
EXPECTED AFTER 00Z.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...ONTON


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