Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
FXUS63 KILX 110845
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
345 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2014
ISSUED 322 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2014
Weak radar echoes this morning over the east central portion of
the state. High pressure building into the region as a front
continues to drift south of the CWA. Zonal flow across the state
aloft with some weak ridging out the west. Current weather map
somewhat diffuse...northerly winds as high pressure dominates
briefly. Forecast revolves around temperatures for today and
tomorrow with a brief warmup. However the latter half of the
weekend and into the work week will be dominated by gray and wet
conditions as more precip returns to the area. After the rain
clears the region... cold air moves back in. Models in agreement
this morning with much of the forecast.
SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday...
Weak wave rippling through the region still popping up some weak
showers. Not expecting more than sprinkles out of that activity
this morning and have removed the low pops. Slightly cooler than
yesterday with highs in the 60s as another slow warming trend
begins for the Midwest. Weak winds today pick up a southerly
component in the overnight hours as the ridge axis slides to the
east. WAA kicks in as well as plenty of warm air in the mid
levels...bringing tomorrows highs up into the mid 70s with partly
cloudy skies. Another warm day with breezy southerly winds.
Tomorrow night, however, will see an end to the mild weather as
another system develops as a wave digs in over the Pac NW coast.
QPF fields being a bit indecisive as to onset...though pretty
consistent with formation of a warm frontal feature north of the
CWA. Warm and rainy through Sunday... particularly in the
NW...spreading SE with the day. Cold front passage for Sunday
night in the overnight hours.
LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday...
Precip ending in the southeast on Monday morning as cold air moves
back into the FA. Temps dropping to at or below freezing for Mon
night with the clearing skies...and again for Tuesday night. Other
than that...extended mostly quiet and cool with more high
pressure. Next system for Thursday night poised to make another
rainy start to next weekend...showing some discrepancies with GFS
and ECMWF as far as timing and depth of wave. Both showing a bit
of negative tilt aloft though and will have to watch this
particular system for some dynamic shifts.
ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014
Skies will continue to clear across the central Illinois terminals
overnight as drier air filters in behind the cold front that
passed through earlier today. As such, VFR conditions should
prevail through the 06Z TAF valid time.
Light/variable winds for the rest of the night will trend
southerly on Friday as return flow develops on the back side of
the surface ridge axis that is currently pushing into the area.