Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 201101

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
601 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017
Next wave of precip and convection moving into the state from the
southwest this morning going to dominate the weather in the short
term through tonight. Upper low easily discernible on IR sat
imagery this morning over southwestern Nebraska...with the
surface low displaced to the east and multiple surface boundaries
amalgams of outflows and fronts draped through the Plains as well
as the Ohio River Valley. Easterly/northeasterly winds remain in
place with some dry air in the airmass over ILX keeping some of
the more active convection in well as a general lack of
instability in the thermal profile of the 00z sounding. Later
today, introducing instability in the way of diurnal heating will
be difficult between the widespread persistent cloud cover and the
slow veering of the winds to more southerly not happening until
later in the day. In part due to this...ILX has been removed from
the slight risk out of SPC. However...well developed convection
moving into the region from the SW will keep the thunder and
marginal risk in place through Day 1. Starting cooler and that
cloud cover has resulted in a major drop in the high temps for

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

Tomorrow the forecast dries out at least briefly through the end
of the weekend and into Monday with mild temperatures expected in
the wake of the exiting storm system. More sunshine in place will
help Mondays temps to move about 5 to 10 degree jump above Sundays
north of I-70. Precip chances return late Monday and through
midweek. Another wave moves into the upper trof in the Northern
Great Lakes at this point...extending the upper trof back to the
SW into the Southern Plains...resulting in a showery forecast
through the first half of the work week. Models currently
struggling with phasing the wave or cutting off the southern low
which will have more of an impact on the northeast overall. For
now...forecast dries out by the end of the week as a ridge builds
in behind the exiting low.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 557 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

Another round of showers and thunderstorms moving into the region
this morning...resulting in IFR/LIFR conditions...mainly with
regards to a low deck...although some visibilities are IFR/LIFR as
well. Showers and thunderstorms are the rule today, although
likely to become more showery by later in the morning. Have pulled
back to VC, maintaining thunder...with slow improvement of
conditions through the evening and through the overnight. Winds
moving from ENE this evening to more southeasterly
tomorrow...becoming southerly by sunset as the precip finally
lifts to the NE and mid level clouds move in.




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