Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 262108
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
308 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Deep trof over the western half of the CONUS this morning while weak
upper level ridging remains over the Atlantic seaboard.  Surface
high pressure sliding off to the east keeping southerly flow over
the region ahead of a slow moving cold front approaching the area
tonight. Temperatures well above normal today will give way to a
chance for precipitation tonight with the passage of the front.
Forecast soundings remain rather shallow with the saturation and
looks to be more drizzle and low clouds...maybe some light rain.
Not a lot of QPF expected.  Guidance shows some patchy light winds,
and close to the low center with a weaker wind gradient associated
with the immediate front...may see a little bit of mist/fog, but
should be more of a low cloud, drizzle situation.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Cold front to push from near Galesburg around 6 a.m. southeastward
to around Lawrenceville by 6 p.m. Rain showers or drizzle with
this frontal boundary could turn over to snow just before ending,
however it looks as if the bulk of precipitation will fall as rain
so still expecting no snow accumulation. Precipitation amounts
should also be quite light as upper level dynamic lift bypasses
central IL to the northwest. Model precipitation fields are
consistent with this idea. The front should stall out just
southeast of Lawrenceville Saturday night as another upper level
wave approaches from the west. This will cause the front to move
again, with precipitation intensifying just southeast of
Lawrenceville. Temperatures will fall behind the front, with
temperatures peaking before noon from around I-55 westward.

Temperatures near normal with dry conditions Sunday and Monday, as
arctic high pressure settles into the Plains. By midweek, a series
of upper level troughs digging into the Midwest will push more cold
air into the region, with highs only reaching the low to mid 20s and
lows in the teens or potentially colder. Expecting this period to
remain dry. The next good chance for precipitation will be at the
end of next work week as a strong trough could potentially eject out
of the Southwest across the southern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014
Not much of a change in the forecast for this round of TAFS.
Increasing llvl MVFR clouds this evening and then into the
overnight dropping the cigs and bringing in the precip. Bigger
concern than the precip is the wind shear at around 2000 ft. The
forecast soundings backing down a bit in the 12Z run, and have
reduced the kts by 5...but still in the 30-40kt range out of the
SW with southerly at the sfc.  Forecast soundings still saturated
only in the low levels early, pointing to more of a drizzle event,
and prefer to keep the predominant dz particularly with the better
energy associated with the sfc system shunting across the region
to the north. That being said, it is still a front. And needed a
tempo to at least depict the chances for dropping to IFR, so
included a -RA in the tempo.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...HJS






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