Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 230513

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1213 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Issued at 859 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

High pressure building into the area from the northern Plains and
upper Midwest is bringing clearing skies into central IL this
evening, while pressure gradients around the low over the
southeast U.S. continues to draw a steady northeast wind around 10
mph. Winds will slowly decrease overnight...perhaps becoming light
and variable by early morning NW of the Illinois River. With the
cool air mass over the region and clear skies, temperatures will
drop into the upper 30s and lower 40s. If any temperatures drop to
the mid 30s for frost it would be in and around Galesburg, but
currently looks like it will be just warmer. Will make a small
adjustment for cooler temperatures around Galesburg, and some
cloud trends, but overall forecast is in good shape.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

High pressure building over the Plains and reaching eastward into
the Midwest this afternoon.  Streaming cirrus behind a stalled
frontal boundary south of the Ohio River Valley keeping at least the
southern half of Illinois in cloud cover this afternoon.  Overnight
forecast rather quiet as the precip in the south pulls away from
ILX.  Forecast has been back and forth with temperatures, but the
latest guidance has come up a few degrees since the 12z runs.  As a
result...overnight lows have come up to the lower 40s.  Any areas in
the NW where the winds are expected to be in the 3-5kts range with
little in the way of cloud cover will need to be closely monitored
for any low lying areas getting any colder than forecast.
Tomorrow...sunny and pleasant spring day with temps climbing into
the upper 60s/near 70.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

High pressure ridge drifts eastward overnight on Sunday...and Monday
will pick up southerly winds setting up a brief warming trend in the
forecast.  Monday will be another pleasant spring day with southerly
winds and high temperatures climbing into the lower 70s.  Southerly
winds pick up a bit for Tuesday, increasing the warm air advection
within the boundary layer ahead of the next system moving in from
the west/northwest.  A large wave dives into the center of the
country, digging out a significant trough aloft and developing a
surface low to move across the Great Lakes on Wednesday.  The low
will pull a cold front across the Midwest, bringing the best chances
for showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday night and through
Wednesday. The initial trough leading this system becomes the first
in a series of waves to bring several rounds of precip and storms
through the Midwest through the end of the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

VFR conditions through the period with skies remaining clear.
Northeast winds expected to be as high as about 10 knots around
KDEC/KCMI late morning into afternoon, due to a storm system to
the southeast, but winds will settle down as a narrow SW-NE high
pressure axis sinks southward.




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