Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 291938

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
238 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Pesky upper low has drifted south of the Ohio River this afternoon,
and is progged to wobble along the Indiana/Kentucky border through
Friday. Periods of showers will continue to rotate around the low
into our area, and will be most numerous on Friday. Have maintained
the mention of isolated thunder for Friday afternoon, with edge of
the 500 mb cold pool edging back into eastern Illinois as the low
drifts northwest. With no real change in the air mass, temperatures
will remain cooler than normal, with highs tomorrow in the upper


.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

A 562 mb 500 mb cut-off low centered over southern Indiana today is
expected to wobble slowly WNW through Saturday before finally
drifting northeastward late in the weekend into early next week as a
deep upper low carves into the western U.S. Until the Midwest low
drifts off to the northeast...bands of showers and isolated
afternoon thunderstorms will wrap around the low into central IL.
Model forecast soundings only indicate weak amounts of instability
during mainly the afternoon and early evening periods Friday through
Saturday evening indicating a chance for lightning...but
predominantly there should be minimal lightning activity.

Temperatures will follow a warming trend Saturday through Wednesday
as high pressure builds into the area, with highs in the  upper 60s
Saturday steadily increasing to upper 70s to around 80 Wednesday.
Following a cold front likely to arrive Thursday, temperatures will
begin to cool again...with highs in the mid 70s expected Thursday.
Lows won`t change as noticeably with clearing skies allowing better
nighttime cooling despite a warming air mass. Expect lows Saturday
morning through Wednesday morning generally in the mid 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Cloud heights steadily lifting and most sites should be VFR level
this afternoon. Main issue with ceilings will be overnight, as
lower clouds and precipitation surge westward around pesky upper
low over central Kentucky. IFR ceilings may arrive at KBMI as
early as 03Z, but most sites will see them arrive around 06Z or
later. Periods of showers will accompany the low ceilings. IFR
ceilings are expected to persist through Friday with potential
areas of LIFR, as the low starts to drift northwest into southern


.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



SHORT TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Geelhart is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.