Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 222014
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
314 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

19z/2pm surface analysis shows stationary frontal boundary from
Michigan westward into the Northern Rockies...while outflow boundary
from previous convective complex extends from Kentucky northwestward
into central Iowa.  The airmass across central Illinois remains
quite stable...as evidenced by current LAPS SBCAPE values of
1500J/kg or less.  Further west along/ahead of the outflow boundary,
the atmosphere is considerably more unstable across Iowa where
SBCAPEs are greater than 3000J/kg.  Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are beginning to develop across northern and central
Iowa, and this activity will gradually shift into west-central
Illinois this evening.  Have therefore included slight chance PoPs
across the Illinois River Valley by 00z...then further east across
the entire KILX CWA overnight.  Low temperatures will remain in the
lower to middle 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

As upper-level ridging begins to weaken and mid-level temps cool
slightly, areal coverage of thunderstorms will become a bit more
robust on Saturday.  Synoptic frontal boundary will remain well to
the N/NW, so main forcing mechanism will be mesoscale outflow
boundaries left behind by previous convection.  Have carried low
chance PoPs everywhere with highs topping out in the lower to middle
90s.

Best rain chances still appear to be setting up Sunday/Sunday night
as cold front approaches from the northwest.  12z Jul 22 models have
continued to delay FROPA, so have increased rain chances along/south
of I-72 into Monday.  After that, a cooler/drier airmass will settle
into central Illinois on Tuesday and Wednesday with highs dropping
back into the middle to upper 80s.  As such, have maintained the
Excessive Heat Warning everywhere through Saturday evening...and
along/south of a Quincy to Danville line through Sunday evening.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Kept VFR conditions over the central IL airports next 24 hours
aside from possible MVFR visibilities of 3-5 miles with light
fog/haze from 09-14Z. Have scattered cumulus clouds 3-4k ft with
broken cirrus clouds 25k ft this afternoon and again on Saturday.
Carried vcsh along I-74 TAF sites later tonight until mid morning
Saturday. Though forecast models have trended drier over central
IL next 24 hours, keeping MCS activity with thunderstorms north of
our area. Winds generally stay below 10 kts next 24 hours out of
the sw this afternoon and more southerly thereafter.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Sunday for ILZ040>057-
061>063-066>068-071>073.

Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for ILZ027>031-
036>038.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...07/VIECK



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