Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KILX 190806
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
306 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

Pesky low clouds continue to linger across the southern 2/3 or so of
the forecast area early this morning. This fact is holding surface
temperatures and dew points up considerably, and mitigating the
frost threat. However, temperatures have fallen to frosty level
across northern portion of the forecast area where skies have
cleared. HRRR and RAP models both suggest clouds should linger for
at least a few more hours across much of the southern CWA, something
that is hard to argue with looking at recent satellite trends. So,
plan to drop Frost Advisory from the southern half of the forecast
area.

Otherwise, quiet weather is on tap for the forecast area today, with
weak short wave ridging drifting overhead, and the associated
surface ridge pushing off to the east. Low level return flow on the
back side of the surface ridge will help push temperatures back into
the 60s today across much of the forecast area. However, the tricky
cloud cover forecast would likely impact how warm we ultimately get.
While most of the synoptic models suggest a mostly sunny day can be
expected, the high resolution HRRR & RAP, suggest at least the first
half of the day may trend closer to mostly cloudy. The high res
models have a better handle on what is occurring at the moment, so
I`m reluctant to disregard their solutions.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A fast moving wave currently across North Dakota is expected to drop
into the Great Lakes on Monday. The main low will stay well to our
northeast, with the trailing cold front sweeping through the
forecast area through early Monday afternoon. The threat of showers
with this feature is mainly across the southeast half of the
forecast area late evening through the overnight hours, with the GFS
and ECMWF both in decent agreement, while the NAM persists with a
dry forecast. Soundings do not show much moisture, so any showers
that occur will be fairly light. Have lingered some 30% PoP`s in the
far southeast CWA into early Monday morning, although have limited
this to areas south of I-70.

Otherwise, largely quiet week on tap for the area, as skinny ridge
builds toward the Mississippi Valley mid week with development of a
large cutoff low over the eastern states. As the eastern low slowly
drifts east late week, a deep shortwave across the Plains will
eventually split with a piece of energy forming a secondary cutoff
low over the lower Mississippi Valley. As this occurs, the threat of
rain east of the river will evaporate quickly Thursday evening with
the moisture being drawn toward this southern low.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Clouds have finally cleared over PIA and BMI but remain nearby. A
push of dry air across our N to NE counties should help to take
the clearing to CMI shortly after 07z and DEC by 08z. SPI appears
to have enough upstream clouds to keep them cloudy to around 08z.
Clouds should clear out from all terminal sites, with borderline
MVFR conditions CMI and DEC.

Fog may be the next concern, based spotty upstream reports of vis
reduction, including Lacons variable vis of 1V5sm. Have included a
tempo from 10-12z for MVFR 4SM BR at all TAF sites. As the high
begins to shift off to the east late tonight, a light SW return
flow will develop by sunrise. Clear skies and southwest winds at
10kt or less will prevail through the day on Sunday. Some mid
clouds will push in from the west Sunday evening.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY until 8 AM CDT this morning FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>048.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Shimon






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.