Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 171953
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
253 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 253 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday:

Cold front currently crossing the forecast area is coming through
dry. However, a post frontal band of forcing tonight associated
with coupled jet streaks/associated mid level frontogenesis may be
able to squeeze out some very light rain or sprinkles. However,
the dry airmass in place will keep the precipitation to a minimum.

Then, upper level/surface ridging will build into/across the area
Friday into Sunday. This will provide quiet weather and moderating
temperatures through the period. Temperatures should be well above
normal, in the 70s, for the weekend.

A slow moving system, one that has been trending slower, is
expected to impact the area by Monday. This system should provide
the best chance for rainfall during the next week. Monday will be
a bit cooler with this system in the area, but the cooling in its
wake will be minimal.

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Thursday:

Ridging builds in for Tuesday and Wednesday in the wake of
Monday`s system. This scenario is supportive of quiet weather and
high temperatures mainly in the 70s.

The next system, also a slow mover is currently progged to arrive
by Thursday or Friday. While the details still need to be worked
out with respect to timing, have carried slight chance/chance PoPs
starting Thursday to account for the eventual arrival of this system.

Bak
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1250 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014
Weak cold front moving through the FA this afternoon expected to
stall and remain in place through the overnight hours. For the
most part, the front remains dry with sct remnant low clouds from
this mornings stratus. Another wave to the SW will move NE along
the boundary resulting in some showery activity tonight. Most of
the activity should be confined to 03-06z... but may see some
lingering showers, particularly in the east to 08-09z. For the
most part, winds are also light and somewhat variable close to the
front. For now, keeping the cigs VFR, however...should a
widespread rainfall occur through the overnight and increase the
RH in the boundary layer, the morning may need to be adjusted.
Confidence in showers are low...so keeping anything less than VFR
out of the morning.

HJS
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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