Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 011519
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1019 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST...AS ANOTHER WARM/DRY
SUMMER DAY IS UNFOLDING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. 15Z/10AM TEMPS
ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...WELL ON THE WAY TO
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MO TO SOUTHERN IL. ISOLATES SHOWERS
AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN MO
OVERNIGHT AND ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS BELIEVE
THESE WILL DISSIPATE AS MORNING ARRIVES AND SHOULD REMAIN JUST
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SO WILL NOT BE
INCLUDING ANY POPS TO COVER THESE...AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING HIGH
PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA
REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. MODELS SUGGEST A CLUSTER OF STORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WELL WEST OF THE AREA BUT NOT ARRIVING IN
THE CWA UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...SO NO POPS DURING THE DAY. TEMPS WILL
BE WARM AGAIN TODAY AND LIKE YESTERDAY...EXPECTING UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

WARMING TREND CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH TONIGHTS LOWS BEING
A BIT WARMER IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DOMINATES
AND THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE EAST.  AN MCS ON TRACK
TO COME INTO THE MIDWEST IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BRINGING POPS NW OF
THE IL RIVER VALLEY BEFORE SUNRISE ON SUNDAY.  SUNDAY THE SYSTEM
DRAGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BUT AGAIN, THE SYSTEM STALLS THE
BOUNDARY INVOF ILX AND SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AS TO WHERE
IT WILL STALL BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE RIPPLES THROUGH.  IN THE SHORTER
TERM, SUNDAYS SYSTEM HAS MORE CONSISTENCY AND THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIP.  BEYOND SUNDAY, MON NIGHT/TUES IS ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ALONG
THE REMNANT BOUNDARY.  FROM MIDWEEK TO THE END OF THE FORECAST, THE
MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY, WITH ABOUT A 12 HR DIFFERENCE IN THE
SERIES OF WAVES IN A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN.  AS A RESULT,
THE SUPERBLEND IS SATURATED WITH LOW POPS OFF AND ON AS A WESTERN
MID LEVEL RIDGE TRAPS HIGH TEMPS OVER THE DESERT SW.  COOLING TREND
IS BROADCAST FOR THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK UNDER INCREASINGLY NWRLY FLOW/AMPLIFYING 500-700MB WAVE
PATTERN.  HOWEVER, THE UPPER LOW REMAINS UP BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES
AND HUDSON BAY AND RELATIVELY BROAD WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
AGGRESSIVE WAVES DIGGING IT OUT.  NOT CONVINCED OF ANY ONE SOLUTION
AT THIS TIME AND THE WIDE SPREAD CHANCE POPS REMAIN THE BEST OPTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS. SKIES
SHOULD BE CLEAR ACROSS THE SITES MOST OF THE DAY. THEN AS STORMS
DEVELOP WELL WEST OF THE AREA...COULD SEE SOME BLOW OFF CIRRUS
DRIFT OVER THE SITES DURING THE EVENING. AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST
TOWARD THE AREA...CLOUDS COULD THICKEN VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD
WITH SKIES BECOMING BROKEN AT AROUND 15KFT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING BUT THEN BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. WINDS SPEEDS ONCE THE
WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10KTS...EVEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...AUTEN


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