Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 171953
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
153 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

With high pressure drifting into the lower Mississippi Valley,
winds have started to turn southwest across central Illinois.
A tightening pressure gradient will keep the speeds up somewhat
overnight, which should help keep temperatures from free-falling.
Lows should be 10-15 degrees (above zero), coldest over the south
where the winds will be lighter. The warming trend should begin in
earnest on Thursday, as temperatures reach above freezing over the
CWA. Mostly clear skies are expected to prevail through the
period.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

Upper ridging will build eastward through the end of the week,
with the warming trend continuing. Little change needed for
temperatures through the weekend, with 40s returning Friday and
most areas in the 50s by Sunday.

Main concern during the period remains with the late weekend storm
system. An upper level trough will dig across the southwest U.S.
early in the weekend, with a low closing off on Sunday over the
central Plains. The latest GFS is a bit quicker than the European
or Canadian models on the speed of this low lifting northeast.
This results in the cold front coming through late Sunday night
vs. Monday morning. While the shear with this front is fairly
decent, the timing results in little in the way of instability.
Can`t rule out a few rumbles of thunder, but chances are low
enough to keep a mention out of the forecast at this point.
Highest rain chances will be Sunday night into Monday morning.
However, wraparound moisture will keep some scattered rain or snow
showers lingering into early Tuesday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1111 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

Last of the 500 foot stratus in east central Illinois is moving
away from KCMI/KBMI late this morning, and little cloud cover is
expected the rest of the period. Westerly winds will be trending
southwest by early evening. Still some concern for some LLWS at
KPIA/KBMI overnight, as winds aloft pick up to around 40 knots
above 1500 feet. Surface speeds will be more in the 10-15 knot
range at that time.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Geelhart


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