Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 210931
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
331 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

All but extreme southeast Illinois was cloudy early this morning and
the latest satellite trends suggest the southeast may see the clouds
move in for a brief time over the next couple of hours. With the
clear sky, a few locations in southeast Illinois have seen some
patchy fog develop, but with the clouds starting to move in we don`t
expect the fog to become widespread. Further to the northwest, some
patchy drizzle has been occurring over parts of extreme eastern Iowa
and some of that, at least based on radar, was tracking into areas
mainly along and west of the Illinois River, so will carry some
patchy drizzle wording for early this morning before that shifts to
our north. Surface temperatures have risen into the middle 30s early
this morning along with dew points now into the lower 30s, so am not
expecting any problems from freezing drizzle at this point.

The slow moving high pressure system that had given parts of our
area some sunshine the past couple of days was finally drifting off
to our east allowing a southerly flow to develop over most of the
forecast area. Forecast soundings indicate our southeast counties
may see the lower cloud cover drift north-northeast out of their
area this morning allowing some sun for a time today. Further north
and west, short range models not as optimistic with a mostly cloudy
sky prevailing. We should see the temperatures continue to moderate
from the highs of yesterday with most areas close to or above the 40
degree mark this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Dry weather expected yet tonight as light rain chances stay west
of central IL until after daybreak Monday. Lows to range from
around 30F in eastern IL to mid 30s over western IL. Storm system
over the Pacific NW to track low pressure around 1000 mb or deeper
to near the SD/MN/IA border by sunset Mon, then weaken as it tracks
into the upper MS river valley on Tue. This will spread rain
showers east across IL during Monday with highest chances Monday
night and then highest rain chances shifting into southeast IL Tue
while diminishing to slight chances nw of IL river on Tue. Milder
temps in the mid to upper 40s expected Monday and Tue with even
50s over southeast IL Tue. LWV highs Tue is 56F MAV and 59F MET.

Forecast models still not in the best agreement with track and
development of southern low pressure system from Texas into the
ohio river valley and central Great Lakes region during mid week.
Models overall have trended slower with change over of rain to
snow and also GFS has trended further east with storm system,
with lighter snowfall accumulations overnight Tue night into Wed.
Have pops increasing again Tue night and Wed with highest pops/qpf
over eastern IL. Windy conditions expected Wed and Wed night as
colder air ushers in with temps back in the 30s on Wed.

Christmas day still looks dry as deepening low pressure pushes
into eastern Canada and surface ridge sets up over the southeast
states. Highs Thu in the upper 30s, to near 40F sw areas. Still
plenty of differences with forecast models with handling late week
storm system but trends have been lighter qpf Fri and Fri night.
Have lowered pops and have mainly light rain chances Fri with highs
upper 30s nw and mid 40s southeast IL. Then small chances of light
snow Fri night. Dry weather next weekend with cooler highs in the
upper 20s to mid 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Cloudy skies will continue at all sites next 24hrs. Cigs are
hovering around 3kft with PIA and SPI above 3kft and BMI, DEC, and
CMI below. So will just have 3kft cigs at all sites since PIA and
SPI will likely drop below 3kft sometime overnight. Based on model
soundings and RH fields, am thinking the MVFR cigs will continue
through tomorrow and tomorrow night. Winds will be south-southeast
through the period, with speeds increase to around 10kts tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Auten






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