Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 011959
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
259 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

1024mb high centered over Minnesota will dominate the weather across
central Illinois tonight.  Scattered diurnal clouds this afternoon
will dissipate toward sunset, followed by clear skies through the
evening.  High/mid clouds will gradually begin to increase from the
southwest overnight, as a frontal boundary extending from southern
Kansas to western Tennessee begins to shift back northward.  Low
temperatures will range from the lower 50s across the NE KILX
CWA...to the upper 50s far southwest around Jacksonville.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Main forecast concern of the next several days revolves around
precipitation chances/timing and heavy rainfall threat for the long
holiday weekend.

Saturday is still shaping up to be a pretty nice day across central
and southeast Illinois. High pressure and the associated dry airmass
will we slow to depart, and the richer/deeper moisture return does
not really begin until Saturday night. Low rain chances will begin
to spread in from the southwest by late in the day, but don`t expect
it to be much more than light rain or sprinkles.

Strong WAA/isentropic lift will begin to overspread the area
Saturday night ahead of a slow moving short wave coming out of the
Plains. This should have showers/storms breaking out across much of
the forecast area by morning. Forcing from the upper wave will keep
precipitation chances going for much of Sunday, Sunday night, and
early Monday. However, it still appears that most of the rain will
have pulled away in time for Monday evening fireworks displays.

Rainfall through the Saturday night-early Monday period still has
the potential to be on the heavy side from time to time, with
widespread precipitable water values around 2" for much of the
period. However, will continue to hold off on any Flood Watches. The
reasons for this include the relatively dry antecedent conditions
across the forecast area, the extended period over which the rain
will fall, and the significant model spread persisting with the
heavy rain axis. However, the flood threat will need to be monitored
as the system draws closer.

After a period of cooler than normals days with clouds, rain, or
northerly winds in the vicinity, warmer weather will build through
the rest of the period as upper level heights rise. However, the
developing ridging will be pretty flat, with periodic disturbances
in our vicinity. This results in an extended period of low PoPs,
despite the fact that the majority of the period should be dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 18z TAF period.
Diurnal Cu with bases between 3500 and 4500ft will dissipate later
this afternoon, followed by mostly clear conditions tonight.
Mid/high clouds will gradually increase late tonight into Saturday
morning as a frontal boundary over the Ohio River Valley begins to
lift back northward. With surface ridge remaining in place across
the region, think any showers will hold off until Saturday
afternoon/evening. Have instead introduced a mid-level cloud deck
at around 10000ft at both KSPI and KDEC after 14z.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Barnes



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