Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 240856

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
256 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2018

Widespread low clouds continue to blanket central Illinois early
this morning. As a short-wave trough noted on 0830z/230am water
vapor imagery over Iowa tracks eastward, mid/upper-level
moistening will take place as well and some very light precip will
be possible. Forecast soundings never show full profile saturation
and with very little precip currently being reported upstream
across Iowa, think little more than a few snow flurries will occur
today. Once the wave pushes eastward into Indiana, synoptic
subsidence on its back side will lead to partial clearing across
the far western KILX CWA by mid to late afternoon. HRRR RH progs
suggest the overcast will begin to scatter west of I-55 late in
the day, with clouds holding firm further east across the
remainder of the area. High temperatures will range from the lower
30s far northeast around around 40 far southwest
near Jacksonville where some afternoon sunshine is possible. Skies
will gradually clear tonight with lows dropping into the middle


.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2018

As high pressure shifts toward the East Coast, increasing
southerly winds will bring much warmer air into central Illinois
for the end of the week. Highs will rise into the upper 40s and
lower 50s on Thursday...then will soar well into the 50s by
Friday as southerly winds gust to near 30mph.

A cold front will approach from the west Friday night, with all
models showing the front passing through the region on Saturday.
The airmass will initially be quite dry: however, sufficient
moistening will occur to warrant PoPs Friday night into
Saturday...with high chance to likely PoPs focused along/east of
I-57. The front will quickly push into Indiana, with only a few
rain showers lingering into Saturday evening across the far E/SE.
Once the front passes, a return to cool/dry weather is expected
for Monday and Tuesday as highs slip back into the 30s. After
that, temperatures will once again jump ahead of the next
approaching system expected by the middle and end of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1117 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

Fairly uniform MVFR cigs around 2000 ft AGL cover central IL and
surrounding areas this evening with upstream observations
indicating this cloud coverage continuing until around 18Z. An
upper level wave may help produce a few snow flurries late tonight
into Wednesday morning and have included VCSH in TAFs
accordingly, although visibilities will remain above 6SM through
the forecast period. Some potential for IFR cigs looks to
accompany the upper wave according to upstream observations,
however have not included in TAFs at this time as guidance
suggests it will remain MVFR in central IL. Improvement to VFR
cigs looks likely starting 18-22Z as an upper level ridge begins
to build into the region. Winds generally WNW 5-12 kts until 21Z,
with a gradual decreasing trend. Lighter and more variable winds
developing 21Z-06Z.




LONG TERM...Barnes
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