Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 241752

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1152 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Issued at 1033 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Low pressure system moving into the Great Lakes this morning, and
a cold front is approaching the Midwest. Ahead of the boundary,
however, winds remain out of the south/southwest. Winds are
expected to be a little breezy today with an increasing pressure
gradient under the deepening low. Sunshine in advance of the
front, in concert with the warm air advection in the region will
result in a rather warm day, and highs will climb into the 60s.
Forecast in general is doing well and no major updates are


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

A mild and windy day is ahead of central and southeast IL with
mostly sunny skies as some high clouds pass by. SSW winds
increasing to 15-20 mph will gust 25-35 mph by afternoon, with
1020 mb high pressure over the Southeast States and strong 987 mb
low pressure over west central Ontario tracking toward the
southern tip of James Bay Canada by sunset. This will help warm
temps into the upper 50s east of I-57 and mid to upper 60s from
Peoria and Springfield west toward the MS river valley.

As the low pressure moves into northern Quebec tonight, it will
sweep a cold front se through IL tonight. The brunt of moisture
and lift still appears to pass ne of central IL, and just have
mention of sprinkles this evening, and lingering over southeast IL
early overnight. Lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

High pressure to settle into the central plains on Saturday while
upper level trof shifts east of IL, into the central Great Lakes
and eastern Ohio river valley by sunset Sat. After a period of
clouds with cold front tonight, expect return of mostly sunny
skies on Saturday. Cooler highs of 50-55F with coolest readings
from I-74 ne. These readings are still above normal highs in the
mid to upper 40s for late November. Lows Sat night mostly in the
lower 30s, with a few upper 20s northern CWA. High pressure
extends from Texas into the mid MS river valley on Sunday and
provides ample sunshine again with highs back in the low to mid
50s, with upper 50s in west central IL.

High pressure sprawled across the southeast states on Monday while
986 mb low pressure moves east over the central Canadian Prairies.
Another breezy day on Monday and SSW winds to help moderate temps
back up into the upper 50s and lower 60s and similar readings on
Tue, maybe a degree or two cooler over nw CWA as a cold front
moves into the IL river valley late in the day Tue. Isolated light
rain showers possible northern CWA late Tue afternoon into Tue
evening but most of CWA should stay dry thru Tue night.

ECMWF, GFS and GEM models eject a mid/upper level low/trof into
the central plains by midday Wed and moving near IL Wed night.
Models still have some differences with handling position of this
system as GEM model is further south while ECMWF model continues
to be slowest with this wx system. Stayed close to consensus for
slight pops of rain showers Wed afternoon over all but east
central IL. Then have 20-30% pops of mainly rain showers Wed
night, though could be mixed with light snow overnight Wed night
nw of IL river. Have 20-30% pops from I-55 east Thu morning then
dry. Temps cool closer to normal during 2nd half of next week with
highs in the mid to upper 40s Wed-Fri, except lower 50s in
southeast IL Wed/Thu.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1149 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

No changes to the forecast this afternoon. Still expect some
gusts...starting to show in obs...and breezy S/SW winds ahead of
approaching system gusting to 25 to 30kts. Mostly sunny, with
some cirrus across the region. Mid level clouds anticipated later
this evening with the cold front and wind shift. Some sprinkles
are possible with the boundary, but far from widespread enough to
warrant a mention at this time. VFR throughout.




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