Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 242310

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
610 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Quiet weather is expected through the period with neutral upper-
level flow and high pressure building across the area at this
surface. One fly in the ointment is the potential for fog across
the area later tonight. Persistent low clouds have been across
much of the forecast area today, clouds that were not well
forecast by any of the guidance. This has minimized diurnal mixing
across the area, and surface dew points are still quite high.
Once the low clouds fade (they have been trending more cellular
with time), the mostly clear skies and light winds anticipated may
be conducive to fog development. Current model guidance is not
too excited about fog tonight, but they weren`t excited about the
low clouds either, leading to low confidence in their output. This
fog threat will need to be monitored closely by the evening

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Forecast attention turns to a vigorous upper-level wave, currently
tracking across Alberta and Saskatchewan. This wave will push a
cold front through the forecast area on Thursday. Southerly low-
level flow ahead of the front Tuesday night into Wednesday night
will bring very warm and humid conditions back into the area.
Associated thunderstorm chances will accompany the
approach/passage of the front Wednesday night into Thursday.

Beyond Thursday/behind the front, humidity levels drop and
temperatures return to normal levels or below. High pressure will
be in control of the local weather for much of the remaining
forecast period, accompanied by dry weather.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

SC/CU is quickly dissipating across the area late this afternoon
and this should result in clear skies at all TAF sites by
issuance/00z time. With winds becoming little lighter tonight out
of the northeast and with what residual moisture is left, think
some light fog will be possible toward morning, but only at
PIA/BMI/CMI. SPI and DEC should be fog-free as they should have
mixed well this afternoon. After fog, skies should remain clear
remainder of the morning and then expecting more SC/CU to develop
across the area at all sites, but only SCT level. Winds will
become east-southeast tomorrow during the day but remaining less
than 10kts.




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