Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 261122
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
622 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

Fog early this morning has been confined to southern IL where
higher dewpoints in the upper 40s/lower 50s while drier dewpoints
in mid to upper 30s have snuck down into central IL with
approaching weak high pressure of 1018 mb from MN and ne IA.
Weak high pressure was ridging se into western IL early this
morning and forecast to drift east of IL into IN by early this
afternoon and across the ohio river valley during this afternoon.
This high pressure combined with upper level ridge near IL to
provide another beautiful fall day with ample sunshine and mild
highs this afternoon of 70-75F with coolest readings from I-74 ne.
Light winds this morning to become southeast 6-12 mph this
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

Fair skies expected tonight and sse winds to give milder lows in
the mid to upper 50s with areas from Jacksonville west near 60F.
This is not too far from normal highs for late October in central
IL. Unseasonably warm highs near 80F still expected Monday with
breezy ssw winds and increasing clouds. Models continue to eject
short wave ne into the IL river valley Monday afternoon with small
chances of showers/thunderstorms to occur mainly late Monday
afternoon nw of I-55.

Strong surface low pressure around 1000 mb to eject ne from western
KS tonight into northern lower MI by dawn Tue, and bring a cold
east across IL overnight Monday night and east of the Wabash river
valley Tue morning. SPC has a 5% risk of severe storms over IL
river valley Monday night and this 5% risk shifts east of IL on
Tue. Likely chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms to
spread east across IL during Monday night, with eastern IL best
chances holding off until after midnight Monday night and
continues Tue morning. Have small chances of showers east of I-57
Tue afternoon while most areas to become dry by then as models
continue faster speed with cold front. Highs Tue range from lower
60s from I-55 nw to the upper 60s in southeast IL. Temperatures
steady or slowly falling tue afternoon behind the cold front.
Dry weather returns across area Tue night through Wed night as
another high pressure system settles over IL by Wed afternoon/evening.
Near normal highs Wed/Thu in the upper 50s/lower 60s.

A weak northern stream short wave to dive se into upper level trof
over the eastern states and bring another cold front into IL by Thu
afternoon/evening. Isolated light showers possible Thu since
moisture is limited with this weak weather system. 00Z ECMWF model
still showing some light qpf over central and eastern IL Friday
(Halloween), but with strong upper level trof east of IL, think
best chances of light rain showers to be over IN. Models continue
to agree that even much colder air arrives on Halloween and
lingers next weekend with highs in the upper 40s/lower 50s Fri-
Sunday, while low temperatures around freezing Friday night and
Saturday night of next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Skies
will remain clear this morning and through the afternoon. Then an
area of warm advection clouds around 1.8kft will advect in and
affect each of the TAF sites early this evening. Clouds should
reach SPI around 23z, followed by everyone else, and last at BMI
around 02z. Clouds should hang around through the evening.
However, not confident on cloud cover, if any, after midnight.
Models differ on this, so this is what is leading to low
confidence in cloud forecast for each of the TAFs late in the
forecast period. So for now will leave out and guess clouds will
continue through the evening and into the overnight hours. Winds
will be light and variable this morning but will become southeast
this afternoon and remain that way through rest of the forecast
period. Wind speeds will be 6-8kts this afternoon and then
increase to around 10kts this evening.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Auten






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