Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS63 KILX 241127

National Weather Service Lincoln IL
527 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)

Surface high pressure ridging currently over the area will move
east this morning, resulting in light winds becoming east-
southeast for the remainder of the day. This will not bring much
waa into the area, but southwest winds in the lower levels will
bring warmer temperatures. Temperatures yesterday, even over the
snow pack in the north, were much warmer than expected and warmer
than guidance, even without much warm air advection. With warm air
arriving in the lower levels, believe afternoon highs will once
again be warmer than guidance, so expecting 50s over most of the
area, with upper 40s over the snow pack north of I-74. Also, do
not think the cirrus will curtail any of the snow melt today.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)

1030 mb high pressure over the Southeast States today will
strengthen to 1040 mb over New England by 12Z/Wed will increasing
sse warm air advection flow into IL tonight and Wed. Strong upper
level low/trof digging into northern CA and into NV by 12Z/Wed with
upper level ridging in the eastern states and puts IL in more of sw
upper level flow during mid week. A weak short wave ejects into
MO/IL by Wed morning and to pass through dry with just partly cloudy
skies. Continued patchy fog over lingering snow pack of northern CWA
from Peoria and Bloomington north overnight until mid morning Wed.
Lows tonight in the mid to upper 30s with milder readings sw CWA
with areas from Jacksonville sw near 40F. Highs Wed range from lower
50s from I-74 north to the upper 50s in southern CWA.

00Z forecast models similar in bringing stronger cold front east
across the IL river valley overnight Thu night and across eastern IL
on Friday. Leading short waves and increased gulf moisture well
ahead of cold front to start bringing rain showers into IL river
valley Wed evening and further into central IL overnight Wed night
while southeast IL stays dry Wed night into Thu morning. Breezy
south winds Thu to bring milder day with highs in the upper 50s and
lower 60s despite cloud cover and increasing rain chances, with rain
chances arriving in southeast IL Thu afternoon. The best chances of
showers and heaviest rains will be Thu night and in eastern IL
Friday morning. Precipitable water values quite high peaking from
1.2-1.4 inches and 1-1.5 inches of rain appears likely with this
storm system, with up to 1.75 inches over the IL river valley. Highs
Friday contrast from low to mid 40s over IL river valley, to the
mid to upper 50s in southeast IL. Temps continue to cool Friday
night into Saturday when highs reach the low to mid 40s.

00Z models show low pressure ejecting ne from southern plains into
mid MS river valley Sat night and ne over Ohio river valley on
Sunday and lifts front and moisture back northward into central/se
IL. ECMWF is a bit slower returning moisture with Sat mostly dry
while GFS quicker bringing precip back into central IL during
Saturday and never really leaving southeast IL. Tried to lower pops
ne areas Saturday with chances of mainly rain showers across area
Sat night and Sunday. Think GEM model is too cold with temperatures
and too far south with low pressure and its qpf (which GEM keeps qpf
south of IL this weekend) and leaned toward milder and further north
low pressure tracks of GFS and ECMWF models which supports mainly
rain with this 2nd storm system. Rain chances to diminish from sw
to ne during early next work week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Broken
cirrus is all that is expected most of the day, but then based on
satellite trends and model RH fields, scattered cirrus is expected
this evening and overnight. Already had a little bit of fog
overnight, but think it continues to be possible, especially where
snow continues to melt. So will have TEMPO group at PIA/BMI/CMI
for couple of hours this morning.


.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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