Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 192308

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
508 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

Dry weather will continue tonight as a weak weather system
develops to the west and moves toward the area for tomorrow. Fog
will be an issue again tonight as there has not been any change in
airmass since this morning and the HiRes models continue to
forecast fog across the area. Will have patchy fog in the west
with areas of fog in the west. Fog will also linger into the
morning hours. Fog could become dense again, but hoping enough
mixing has taken place today to keep visibilities from going as
low as they did this morning. So advisory is not being issued at
this time. Models in good agreement on timing of precip with all
models suggesting that all precip will remain west of the I-55
through afternoon. However, some showers could be possible east of
I-55 during the late afternoon as the system moves into the state.
Temps during the day Monday will remain well above normal, with
records again possible.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

Models are in very good agreement with the bulk of the precipitation
coming into the CWA Monday night and then being out of the area by
Tuesday afternoon. System is not very strong and looks like a simple
front/mid level wave coming through, so most of the precipitation
will be showers. However, very warm temps and an increase in
moisture means that some isolated thunderstorms will not be out of
the question. By Tuesday morning, most of the precip will have moved
off to the east with only the eastern part of the CWA left with come
lingering showers. By Tue afternoon, all the precip will be out of
the area and well east of the state.

Dry and warm weather will return for Tue night through Wed night as
the CWA sits in a some-what zonal flow. This flow will keep the area
in a very warm airmass for middle of the week and into the latter
part of the week.

Then another system will be developing in the southwest US and move
out into the plains Thur into Thur night. Models are in agreement
that this will be occurring but differ on timing and location of the
weather and surface features, including a warm front. The Canadian
has the warm front further south than the GFS and ECMWF and with
such warm air we have been having the last week, believe Canadian
too far south and am more inclined to side with the other two
models. This system will also be deepening some as it moves out of
the southern plains. There should be plenty of moisture and with
dynamics increasing, showers and thunderstorms appear likely,
especially in the warm sector and probably along the developing warm
front. Current forecast models indicate the timing of the front
through the CWA could be late enough that the best instability and
dynamics would be in eastern IL Fri afternoon, then pushing east
into Indiana for Friday evening. This is 5-6 days out and lots could
change between now and then. However, believe showers and storms
warranted in the forecast for Thur night and Fri across the CWA. As
the system lifts northeast into the Great Lakes region Fri night,
showers will linger in the east with any wrap around precip being
north of the CWA.

Dry weather then returns for a brief period for Sat and Sat night
and temps will drop to slightly below normal for Sat during the day
and also that night. However, this cool down will be very short
lived as warm temps will quickly return for next Sunday. A weak wave
will lift northeast across northwest IL and some precip is possible
in northwest part of the CWA during the day.

Temps will remain above normal through most of the week, but then
cool briefly for Sat and Sat night.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 505 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

Fog with LIFR/VLIFR conditions expected to overspread the area
from south to north this evening roughly in the 03z-06z time
frame. Low clouds and fog/hz late this afternoon were confined to
areas south of our TAF sites. However, after sunset we should see
the fog start to develop and then expand across the forecast area.
The fog will slowly lift after 15z on Monday as increasing
southerly winds ahead of our next storm system develop across the
area. The stratus deck looks to improve only to MVFR category by
afternoon. The winds tonight will be southeast at 5 to 10 kts and
then southeast winds will increase on Monday to between 12 and 17
kts with a few gusts up to 23 kts possible in the afternoon.


Issued at 312 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

Record Highs / Record Warm Lows - Sunday Feb 19th...
Peoria........ 71 / 50
Lincoln....... 71 / 46
Springfield... 70 / 54
Champaign..... 68 / 46
Bloomington... 70 / 47
Decatur....... 66 / 48
Danville...... 70 / 54
Galesburg..... 63 / 52
Charleston.... 72 / 53
Effingham..... 70 / 45

Record Highs / Record Warm Lows - Monday Feb 20th...
Peoria........ 68 / 46
Lincoln....... 70 / 46
Springfield... 74 / 46
Champaign..... 71 / 45
Bloomington... 67 / 45
Decatur....... 70 / 47
Danville...... 70 / 48
Galesburg..... 64 / 41
Charleston.... 73 / 48
Effingham..... 68 / 54

Record Highs / Record Warm Lows - Tuesday Feb 21st...
Peoria........ 69 / 46
Lincoln....... 69 / 45
Springfield... 69 / 48
Champaign..... 67 / 47
Bloomington... 69 / 46
Decatur....... 68 / 48
Danville...... 67 / 50
Galesburg..... 68 / 40
Charleston.... 71 / 52
Effingham..... 73 / 52

Record Highs / Record Warm Lows - Wednesday Feb 22nd...
Peoria........ 71 / 51
Lincoln....... 71 / 52
Springfield... 71 / 53
Champaign..... 69 / 49
Bloomington... 70 / 53
Decatur....... 72 / 51
Danville...... 71 / 54
Galesburg..... 61 / 45
Charleston.... 71 / 52
Effingham..... 74 / 55




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