Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 250439

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1139 PM CDT MON OCT 24 2016

Issued at 905 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

High pressure centered over western Lake Superior and into western
Ontario will maintain its influence on our area through tomorrow.
Dry dewpoints in the upper 30s will set the stage for low temps
in the upper 30s to low 40s. High clouds streaming across the
northern Plains will cause increasing clouds across central
Illinois tomorrow afternoon, with any rainfall holding off until
later tomorrow night.

Made some minor adjustments to lower the low temps in our NE areas
were skies should remain clear overnight, and winds will be light
and variable near the ridge axis. Otherwise, the forecast looks on
track over the next 24 hours. Updated forecast info is already


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

A ridge of high pressure currently extending from the Upper Midwest
to the Tennessee River Valley will slowly shift east of the region
over the next 24 hours.  Light northeasterly winds this afternoon
will become easterly tonight, then southeasterly on Tuesday as the
high slowly departs.  Given the continued dry low-level flow, any
low clouds and precip associated with the next approaching system
will hold off until Tuesday evening at the earliest.  Overnight low
temperatures tonight will drop into the upper 30s and lower
40s...while highs on Tuesday climb into the lower to middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

With high pressure ridge east of the area, a weather system will
develop out in the plains and move toward the area. Warm air
advection precip is possible ahead of the system Tue night, but low
layers will be quite dry and any precip will have to moisten the
lower levels before any precip reaches the ground. So will have a
chance of precip Tue evening in the northwest and then increase it
to likely after midnight. The system will intensify somewhat Wed,
and combined with a little increase in low level moisture, showers
and isolated thunderstorms will be likely Wed morning, spreading
further east Wed afternoon. The front will push through most of the
area Wed evening so precip will continue across the area with the
highest pops being in the east & southeast Wed evening. Late Wed
night, precip will diminish and then dry weather will be the rule
for Thur through Friday as a brief high pressure moves across the

Models continue to differ with what is going to happen over the
weekend and into the beginning of next week. The GFS and Canadian
quickly bring a front through the CWA for Friday night, and then
have dry weather the remainder of the forecast period. The ECMWF has
dry weather through the remainder of the forecast period. Due to the
differences in model solutions, will just follow the blend, which
will have precip for Friday night only.

Temps through the forecast period will be seasonable with the
warmest day bring Friday and the coolest days being Thur and Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Surface high pressure will gradually shift east over the next 24
hours, as a low pressure system approaches from the west. Skies
will remain generally clear through tomorrow morning. High clouds
will increase tomorrow afternoon, with mid-clouds increasing
during the evening as precipitation chances increase NW of the IL
river. Rain will mainly arrive after the end of this TAF period,
but a few showers could approach the PIA terminal site after 03z,
so a VCSH was included after 03z. The dry lower levels will help
to delay the onset of precipitation, and cloud ceilings will
remain VFR through this TAF period.

Light northeast to east winds will continue the rest of tonight.
Directions will become southeast after sunrise tomorrow, as the
pressure gradient begins to tighten ahead of the next low
pressure systems. Wind speeds should remain in the 8-12kt range
tomorrow and tomorrow evening.


.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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