Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 052002
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
302 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT
AS OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM...CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...
TRACKS EAST INTO THE MIDWEST LATE MONDAY. THE EXTENSIVE CUMULUS
FIELD SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING LEAVING A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT. THAT COMBINED WITH A
LIGHT WIND AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SHALLOW
MOISTURE JUST OFF THE SURFACE AS THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS...PROBABLY DUE TO SOME DECENT MIXING OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

COLD FRONT SLATED TO PRESS SE ACROSS IA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE IL RIVER VALLEY
BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT THEN SPREADS SE ACROSS NW IL
MONDAY EVENING AND REACHING NEAR I-55 BY 12Z/7 AM TUE LIKELY
SPREADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SE INTO CENTRAL IL MONDAY NIGHT.
THE WABASH RIVER VALLEY AND AREAS NEAR THE INDIANA BORDER MAY STAY
DRY MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT. SPC HAS MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS NW
OF I-55 LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MON EVENING WITH SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE FROM GALESBURG NW. VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH CAPES PEAKING
BY LATE MON AFTERNOON FROM 2-4K J/KG THOUGH WEAKER BULK SHEAR OF 15-
25 KTS. MAIN SEVERE WX THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ALSO
HEAVY RAIN THREAT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 2 INCHES.

COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO SE IL TUE AFTERNOON SHIFTING LIKELY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO AREAS SOUTH OF I-72. SPC HAS
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE SE OF I-70 TUE AFTERNOON FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINS. VERY WARM HIGHS IN UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90F MON WITH HUMID DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S BY MON
AFTERNOON GIVING HEAT INDICES PEAKING MON AFTERNOON IN MID TO UPPER
90S. COOLER HIGHS TUE IN MID TO UPPER 70S CENTRAL IL AND LOWER 80S
SE OF I-70.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO TEMPORARILY STALL IN SOUTHERN IL JUST SOUTH OF
CWA TUE NIGHT WITH SURFACE WAVE RIDGING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
BRINGING QPF BACK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA TUE NIGHT AND
ACROSS AREA WED AND WED NIGHT ALONG WITH CHANCES OF HEAVY RAINS
AGAIN.

12Z MEDIUM AND EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES DURING MIDWEEK THAT GRADUALLY RETROGRADES
WESTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS DEVELOPS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCES SE INTO IL THAT INTERACTS WITH SEASONABLY WARM/HUMID
TROPICAL AIRMASS (DEWPOINTS IN UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S) TO BRING DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THU THROUGH SUNDAY OF NEXT
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION. HEAVY
RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL/SE
IL. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S THU CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S FRI AND MID TO UPPER 80S NEXT WEEKEND. LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CUMULUS IS FILLING IN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA, WHICH SHOULD EXPAND TO INCLUDE BMI, DEC, SPI AND CMI WITH A
PREVAILING BKN035 CEILING FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP PIA WITH
SCT035, AS CU RULES AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LITTLE LESS RH
IN THE CLOUD LAYER THERE. WINDS ARE STILL VARIABLE, BUT A
SOUTHERLY PREVAILING WIND SHOULD DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE TRANSITION BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE
IN THE PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH CIRRUS OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT, WITH STEADY SOUTH WINDS OF 6-8KT. THE WINDS SHOULD HELP
TO PREVENT MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT, BUT CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE IT
OUT.

WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-13KT BY 15Z TOMORROW MORNING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY TIGHTENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...SHIMON



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