Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 242117
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
317 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

Wind advisory over eastern IL this afternoon will be cancelled early
as WSW winds have slowly diminished below advisory criteria by mid
afternoon, as best 3 hourly pressure rises have shifted ne of IL.
Sustained wind speeds are down to 20-29 mph with gusts of 30 to 39
mph at 2 pm. Strong and deepening 975 mb low pressure along the Quebec
and Ontario province line will lift ne across Quebec tonight with
very tight pressure gradient relaxing tonight over IL, as high
pressure over the Rockies drifts east into the Great Plains tonight.
WSW winds will continue to diminish to 10 to 20 mph this evening and
gusts of 20 to 30 mph this evening. Area of light snow and flurries
over IA and northern IL to pivot across areas north of I-72 into
this evening but little or no additional accumulations. Areas from
Peoria north had a half to 1 inch of snow this morning with just a
dusting from Lincoln south. Cyclonic flow lingers over central IL
tonight and this should keep the low clouds around with mostly
cloudy to overcast skies continuing. Temps currently are mostly in
the low to mid 30s over central IL (Galesburg down to 28F) while
40-45F southeast of I-70 in southeast IL. Lows tonight to range from
near 20F nw of the IL river to the upper 20s in southeast IL.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

High pressure will build into the region and bring and dry forecast
for Tue and Tue night. Then a clipper system will quickly move
through the area and bring a shot of pcpn during the day. Pcpn will
begin in the morning in the west and then move eastward across the
CWA and cover the whole CWA by afternoon. Pcpn type will be a tricky
forecast as warmer air will be advected into the area ahead of the
low pressure area and this will create a mix of rain and snow across
the area as the day progresses. So, looks like snow begin across the
area and then gradually become mixed with snow during the late
morning. During the afternoon, the mix of rain and snow will move
northward, while the pcpn becomes all rain in the south and
southeast. Toward the end of the afternoon as the temps decrease,
the rain and snow line will shift south with all snow being in the
north.

Beyond Wed, a dry forecast looks to be in order for the rest of the
week as high pressure builds into the region and the upper level
flow becomes more zonal. Then a front drops through the area over
the weekend and then stalls across southern Illinois. This stalled
front will bring another chance of pcpn for Sunday and Sun night.

Temps overall will be below normal tomorrow through Thursday, but
begin to warm back up during the end of the week and through the
weekend. Warmest temps look to be Sat and Sun when highs reach into
the 50s over the whole area for Sat and the 40s for most of the area
for Sunday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

Light snow showers and flurries will occur into mid afternoon over
mainly northern TAF sites of PIA and BMI where MVFR vsbys 3-5 miles
to occur at times. Have just flurries further south along I-72 TAF
sites this afternoon with vsbys generally above 5 miles. MVFR overcast
ceilings to continue through tonight with BMI as low as 900 ft at
midday. Strong and deeping 976 mb low pressure near the
Ontario/Quebec province line continue to pull northeast away from
the Great Lakes region as it lifts across Quebec but still have
cyclonic flow over IL through tonight. This will likely keep
broken to overcast low clouds over central IL through tonight and
have ceilings lifting up to VFR during mid/late Tue morning.
Strong WSW winds 17-25 kts and gusts of 28-35 kts early this
afternoon to gradually diminish later this afternoon and evening
reaching speeds of 10-15 kts after 02Z with west winds around 10
kts overnight into Tue morning.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...07






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