Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 301556
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1056 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

High pressure centered over AR will continue to drift to the
southeast, with light southwest winds over central IL. Some high
clouds drifting southeast over northern IL from weak short wave in
the upper plains. Only forecast concern is the approaching weak
front by Tuesday morning and the timing of frontal passage. Winds
will shift to the northwest with frontal passage. Conditions
though will remain VFR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Mild temperatures and dry weather are expected today as central
Illinois remains in weak subsidence aloft behind yesterday`s storm
system. With a surface high pressure center passing by to the south
and a surface low approaching northeast IL from the northern Plains,
a strengthening pressure gradient will bring a 10-15 mph SW breeze
helping to advect warmer air into the region from the central
Plains. Highs will therefore reach the low to mid 60s, with the
warmer temperatures toward the west side of the state. Periods of
high clouds can be expected, but they should be thin enough for a
mostly sunny day.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

In the near term...temperatures going through a warming trend
through midweek.  A quick wave/clipper like system diving into the
Midwest should keep the bulk of its impacts just north of ILX
tonight...as dry weather and weak high pressure ridging dominates
through Wednesday.  System in development for second half of the
week starting to show in the med range models and so far, the NAM is
aligning with slower ECMWF...with the GEM not too far behind.  With
the slower solution, the precip should remain to the west until
Thursday morning, but so far, the SuperBlend is holding onto pops
for Wed night because of the quicker GFS. Have altered them somewhat
in the east to start a slower trend. Once this front moves through
with the rain on Thursday and Thursday evening, the front does not
get very far and ends up hanging up in mostly weak parallel flow
just north of the Ohio River Valley.  Another wave moves out of the
Plains along the boundary, enhancing precip along the boundary for
Friday as well as acting as a kicker to get the system out of the
region altogether by the weekend.  High pressure builds back in for
next weekend with the highs in the mid to upper 50s/lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours at all central
Illinois terminals. WNW winds 5-10 kts will gradually shift to SW
and increase to 10-15 kts through the afternoon as a low pressure
center tracks closer to the Great Lakes Region. Expect some higher
gusts during the afternoon. Winds will begin to shift to NW
following a weak dry cold frontal passage late tonight.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Goetsch
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Onton





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