Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

072
FXUS63 KILX 040830
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
230 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

High pressure advancing into Illinois from the west will push the
remainder of the low clouds into Indiana shortly after sunrise. A
low pressure system approaching Wisconsin today will drag a band of
clouds into northern Illinois this afternoon. The clouds may affect
our counties north of Lincoln, but overall coverage should not
become overcast at any point. In general, most of our forecast area
should see enough sunshine today to help high temperatures climb to
around normal readings. Afternoon highs should range from the mid
30s in our northeast counties towards Danville, to the upper 30s in
the southwest around Jacksonville.

As the high pressure center edges closer to IL, the pressure
gradient will continue to diminish, helping to curtail the wind
gusts, which will be a nice change from yesterday`s blustery
conditions. By mid-morning, we expect winds to steady out in the 8
to 12 mph range and remain there through the day. Wind direction
will shift from W-NW this morning to W-SW this afternoon as the
surface ridge axis passes across IL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Broad upper trough covers a large part of the central U.S. this
morning, and will approach the East Coast on Friday. Second trough
currently evident along the Pacific coast of British Columbia will
dig this evening as it crosses the Rockies, and should be centered
over the Mississippi Valley by Saturday morning. Main energy with
this second trough will be closer to the Great Lakes, so the
forecast will be kept dry to start the weekend. A nice warmup on tap
as the upper trough passes, and highs both Saturday and Sunday
should be well into the 40s, with perhaps some 50 degree readings
south of I-70.

Main story in this part of the forecast remains with the cold
weather slated for early next week. GFS and ECMWF are coming into
better agreement with a large closed upper low forming over the
upper Mississippi Valley early next week, settling into southern
Ohio by Tuesday morning. Cold air of around -17C at 850 mb will be
drawn southward behind the low all the way down into the Tennessee
Valley. Extent of the cold temperatures will be dependent on any
snow cover that may form, which is feasible as persistent snow
showers will rotate southeast from the associated surface low near
the Great Lakes Monday and Monday night. Even without the snow,
temperatures likely to fall into the single digits Tuesday night
over most of the CWA, with highs struggling to reach the 20s on
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

Skies across the central Illinois terminal area will clear from
northwest to southeast for the rest of the night as high pressure
builds into the area. Once the MVFR CIGs go, VFR conditions should
prevail for the balance of the 06Z TAF valid time. The approach of
the high pressure will also be accompanied by decreasing winds,
with the west northwest winds trending more southwesterly with
time.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...BAK



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.