Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 290236
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
936 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

EVENING UPDATE FOR SKY COVER AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS. CLOUD DECK
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA HANGING ON LONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...AND IS BEING MODELED WELL BY THE RAP LOW
LEVEL RH PROGS. THIS MODEL MAINTAINS THE EVENING TREND OF AN
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE CLOUDS...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO DAMPEN THE
PREVIOUS NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT. IF THE OVERCAST DECK IS
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS
WILL BE NEEDED TO WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE STRONG LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA IS COMBINING
WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION...TO BRING A BRISK FALL DAY...WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY CLEAR SOUTH TO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM ARE NEAR 50 NORTH AND NEAR 60 SOUTH.  A 15 TO
25 MPH WIND IS MAKING IT FEEL SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

LOOKING AT VISIBLE SATELLITE...THERE IS A DEFINITE DIURNAL CHARACTER
TO THE STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF IOWA...AND
WE ARE SEEING HOLES WITH DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE DAKOTAS AS WELL.
THIS DIURNAL NATURE OF THE CLOUD DECK OVER HEAD...AND THE ONE
ADVECTING TOWARD THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT CLEARING BY
SUNSET. MODELS SWEEP THE MAIN STRATUS DECK TO TO THE NORTH AWAY FROM
THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT IN ANY CASE...THUS A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR NIGHT
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN UP AROUND 8 TO 12 MPH...HIGH
ENOUGH TO KEEP US FROM DROPPING TO THE 20S...BUT NON THE LESS WE
WILL BE QUITE CHILLY...WITH LOWS OF THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 37 SOUTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY...AFTER A CHILLY START...WE WILL HAVE A CHILLY DAY.  WHILE
THE CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BE AS BRISK AS TODAY...A MORNING WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WILL DECREASE TOWARDS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 5 TO
10...RESULTING IN A MUCH MORE PLEASANT DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE QUITE COOL...WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND 50 NORTH TO MID
50S FAR SOUTH.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON MUCH COLDER WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

THURSDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CWA BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE
QUITE DRY. THEREFORE...THIS LOOKS TO BE EITHER SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS WITH MAINLY A TRACE EVENT AND WILL MAINTAIN THE 20 POP.

FRIDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS SIMILAR IN SHOWING A POTENT
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION NOTED. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO -9C IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES BY 12Z FRIDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A PERIOD OF STRATUS
CLOUDS. COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE CWA ON NORTH WINDS
GUSTING TO 30 TO 35 MPH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE ONLY
IN THE 40S MAKING FOR A COLD AND WINDY HALLOWEEN.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE
CWA WITH A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE EXPECTED AS WE FLIP THE CALENDAR
TO NOVEMBER. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S AT MANY LOCATIONS. SOME COLD
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY IN THE WAPSI VALLEY MAY DROP TO AROUND
20. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY THERE WILL BE FULL
SUNSHINE BUT ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AGAIN.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE HIGH SHIFTS WELL TO OUR EAST WITH
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
MIDWEST WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LOW
CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT IN REGARD TO TIMING/INTENSITY/PLACEMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM. FOR NOW WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

LOW VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING WITH A
WESTERLY WIND REMAINING UP IN THE 7-9 KT RANGE...THEN INCREASING
AROUND 12KT WEDNESDAY MORNING.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...RP KINNEY






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