Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 292343
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
643 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Analysis at 2 PM CDT shows nice spring conditions with westerly winds
of 10 to 15+ mph bringing in slightly drier, cooler air and fair skies.
Fair weather cumulus clouds with some isolated showers and storms occurring
north of highway 20 in Iowa. Temperatures mostly around 80 degrees with
dewpoints upper 50s to around 60 degrees. Upstream energy shows weak
disturbance in southern rockies will slide into area late PM Monday
and especially Monday Night into Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Short Term Forecast Confidence Assessment: Good or Above Average. Main
issue is timing arrival of weak showers and isolated storms Monday PM
with next disturbance. Trends suggest dewpoints are still too high which
may allow for little or no precipitation to arrive from west until later
and with less coverage. Temperatures should be within 3 degrees of forecast
for highs and lows.

Tonight: Generally fair skies and light to possibly calm winds should
allow for some BL decoupling and mins at or below coolest guidance.
Some favored low lying location may fall well into upper 50s and may
fall to around 56 degrees along and north of I-80 for later shifts.
Some patchy ground fog may occur also for later shifts near sunrise
to monitor.

Monday: Fair skies with gradually increasing clouds and light westerly
winds. Highs based on upstream today and persistence should make lower
to middle 80s with dewpoints rising into the lower 60s. POPS may be
a bit too early and too high if dewpoints are too high. Any precipitation
should be light and storms non-severe due to low instability parameters,
forcing and shear.

.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Monday Night...Minimal forcing for ascent - low confidence in
widespread rain. Blended output has 30-40% PoPs for measurable
rain across majority of E Iowa/W Illinois/and NE Missouri. The
ECMWF/NMM/NAM12 are mostly dry into Tuesday morning, while the
GEM/GFS are the wetter solutions. PoPs may trend downward with
next few model runs.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Models have an active pattern developing
as an upper-level low swings from Montana through North Dakota and
into Minnesota. A moist atmosphere will surge northward ahead of
this low causing PWATS to spike near ~1.50 inches. Sfc dewpoints
in the 60s will make it feel humid.

Rain Chances: It will likely not rain continuously during this
time. The periods of more widespread showers and storms will be
associated with embedded vorticity maxima riding northward in the
southwest mid-level flow ahead of the cold front Tuesday and
Tuesday Night. A secondary wave of showers and storms is then
possible across portions of the CWA in association with the cold
front on Wednesday.

In general, isolated strong or severe storms are possible but it
is too early to forecast with more detail this far out.

Thursday and Friday...High pressure builds into the Midwest
resulting in a much drier forecast and, for a change, cooler temps
in the 75-80 F range.

Saturday and Sunday...Upper disturbances moving through in NW
flow aloft bring the chances for isolated to sct showers and
storms back into the forecast. Little longitudinal shift of
strengthening Western U.S. upper-level ridge means no big warm-ups
for the Upper Midwest. Consensus temps are in the upper 70s.
Uttech

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Monday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Isolated showers in vicinity of KDBQ early in the TAF period.
Otherwise, there is a low probability of isolated storms
overnight near the Highway 20 corridor. Also cannot rule out
scattered storms Monday afternoon. Predictability of
showers/storms impacting any TAF site either period is too low for
inclusion in TAFs at this time. Expect VFR conditions and a light
wind, with the lone exception being a brief visibility restriction
if an isolated cell happens to move over a TAF site.

&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Nichols
SHORT TERM...Nichols
LONG TERM...Uttech
AVIATION...RP Kinney


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