Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 220904
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
404 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

At 3 AM CDT, area under mostly clear skies and northeast winds of 5
to 10 MPH with temperatures in the middle 20s to lower 30s. Upstream
energy and satellite trends all supports clouds from the south
and west to move back in the next 12 to 24 hours as surface high
moves east ahead of a slow moving upper low in the southwest
United States with periods of mostly rain and possibly drizzle and
fog into this weekend and isolated thunder possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Short term forecast confidence...good or above average. Little sensible
weather issues with trends in increasing clouds impacting highs/lows.
Most area lows and highs should be with 3 degrees of forecast.

Today...mostly sunny and seasonable cold with highs lower to middle
40s south under a light easterly wind. This is about 10 degrees below
normal.

Tonight...Increasing clouds southwest in the evening hours and overspreading
most of the region by sunrise on Thursday. Area lows may be late evening
to early overnight hours with slowly rising temperatures in the southwest
by 3 AM. Area mins should range from the mid 20s far NE to the middle
30s far southwest. Some light rain may move into the far southwest near
daybreak on Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through next Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Thursday...The latest model runs continue to hasten the first good
surge of elevated THTA-E advection during the day Thu, with the NAM
even aggressive with mid layer plume of 500+ J/KG MUCAPES on somewhat
convergent nose of southwesterly 30-40 KT LLJ. This would suggest
some embedded thunder possible in elevated rain clusters streaming
up acrs the CWA as the day progresses. First problem of the day is
the loaded model blend suggesting light freezing rain and even some
sleet mixed in leading edge of northward spreading precip bands
through mid Thu morning especially along and north of I80. But sfc
temps and WBZ`s marginal for it to last long or produce any type of
light glaze on surfaces, and confidence is low that any wintry mix
will occur at all, and if anything maybe the sleet or ice pellets
for a short period looking at BUFKIT soundings north of I80.

With the main warm front likely remaining just to the the south of
the CWA through late afternoon, expect a large range of temps by
that time from the mid 40s in the far north, to the mid 50s in the
southwest. The warm front will look to retreat just to the north of
the CWA as Thu night progresses, and the main synoptic scale forcing
and resultant significant precip swaths should occur in an arching
pattern from the west central plains, northeastward up acrs MN and
WI through Fri morning. Thus much of the CWA may trend mainly dry
and in the warm sector for non-diurnal temps trends overnight...but
will keep POPs going acrs the far north adjacent to convergent WSW-
to-ENE oriented baroclinic zone acrs the upper MS RVR Valley.

Friday...Closed upper low in developing slow Rex block pattern still
advertised by medium range model ensembles to slow-roll eastward
acrs the central plains and toward the southern MO RVR Valley this
period. With the CWA remaining in the warm sector of this system and
warm moist conveyor-fed band of showers probably not spreading acrs
the western CWA until late afternoon, increasing south winds and WAA
to drive temps into the 60s and 70s for Fri highs. Showers and some
embedded thunder to continue acrs the region Fri night into Sat
morning, with convergent TROWAL signature and PWAT`s over an inch
fueling locally moderate to heavy rainfall by Sat morning...some
areas getting an inch possibly. At least currently projected
thermodynamic profiles and shear don`t support much in the way of a
severe storm threat late Fri and into Fri night.

Saturday and Sunday...00z medium range models and ensembles continue
to suggest that the blocked closed upper low to continue it`s slow
roll along and south of the DVN CWA Sat through midday Sunday, with
classic TROWAL fed occasional rounds of showers spiraling acrs the
area making for a moist weekend. Some dry periods mixed in as well
at times, and the rain may make some headway east with opening upper
low by late Sunday afternoon. Mild and humid on Sat with highs in
the 50s and 60s, minor drop off for lows sat night under clouds and
occasional precip, and some lower level cool conveyor affected highs
for Sunday. When the rain temporarily wanes, there may also be some
dense fog issues Sat night into Sunday morning around convergent sfc
reflection of the low aloft, but will not add those details to the
fcst at this juncture yet.

Next Monday and Tuesday...Active west-southwesterlies will look to
shuttle another rain making system/low toward the area later Monday
and Monday night, but with southward push trends in the recent
medium range model runs, the lay out of main steering flow may shunt
this system just to the south of the area.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Anticipate lake enhanced stratus to propagate and develop into the
terminals overnight into Wednesday morning bringing a period of
MVFR cigs. Then with mixing and drying anticipate a return to VFR
conditions by Wednesday afternoon. N/NE winds around 10 kts with
locally higher gusts to near 20 kts overnight will turn from the
E/SE on Wednesday.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Nichols
SHORT TERM...Nichols
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...McClure


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