Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 131149 AAA
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
549 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 246 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

High pressure was centered over the central CONUS this am as clear
skies in the area were allowing temperatures to drop into the 20s
this morning. To the south and west of the area, a cut off upper
level low was slowly lumbering east across the southern Rocky
Mountains. With northwest flow aloft, this low is forecast to stay
south of the area through the short term period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

Another beautiful, early, spring-like day is forecast for today
with temperatures reaching the upper 40s to low 50s with mostly
clear skies. Main forecast concern for the short term will be
the temperatures and winds across the area. Raised temperatures
over guidance as this has been the trend through the last 4
nights. Winds will not be as strong today as they were yesterday
across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

Quiet and Dry conditions continue with above normal temperatures
through Sunday.

Long Term Forecast Assessment...Once again fair to good or average
to above average confidence because no sensible weather expected and
no major temperature changes.  Persistence from past few days
supports keeping high temperatures most days with our dry ground at
least a few degrees higher than the warmest guidance and also the
official forecast.

Tuesday...Fair and above normal temps with highs in the 40s and
still some lower 50s reasonable in south sections. Mins in the 20s.
Winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20+ MPH during the
day become light northwest toward Wednesday morning.

Wednesday...Clear and colder with near normal temps. Highs mostly
in the 30s to possibly lower 40s south. Lows Wednesday night mostly
in the 20s with possibly some upper teens along and north of highway
30.

Thursday through Sunday...Near record warmth.  Extended period of
south winds for temps becoming well above normal. Highs 45 to 55 on
Thursday with 55 to 65 degrees Friday through Sunday which may come
within 5 degrees of records highs. Lows mostly in the 30s with some
low 40s possibly by Sunday and Monday morning.

Monday...Very mild with indications of a rain event as system moves
out of the southwest with light to moderate rain totals.  Timing and
rain totals better known in the next 1 to 2 days.  Isolated embedded
thunder risk is marginal and will be also better known in the next
few days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
ISSUED AT 549 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

VFR flying conditions through the period. Winds should be lighter
today, but may gust into the 20 kt range later this morning and
into the afternoon.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gibbs
SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Nichols
AVIATION...Gibbs



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