Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 231121
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
521 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 322 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

06z surface data has a surface low over western lower Michigan. A
cold front ran from the low west into Minnesota. Another weak
boundary ran from the low into southeast Iowa and then northeast
Kansas. Dew points were in the 30s and higher from eastern Iowa into
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Dew points in the teens and 20s
were across the upper Midwest into the Plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

A layer of warm air persists across much of the area which is
keeping precipitation in the form of all rain or drizzle. As colder
air moves in through sunrise, temperatures will slowly fall.

Thus through sunrise, light rain and drizzle will slowly mix with
light snow north of I-80. There may or may not be a dusting of
accumulation.

During the day on Tuesday some lingering light snow or a rain/snow
mix will end in the far northeast and east areas just prior to the
morning commute. Otherwise, expect windy, dry, and much colder
conditions across the area.

Tonight, quiet and dry conditions will be seen across the area
during the evening. After midnight, a weak upper level disturbance
moves through the area. Moisture is extremely limited but the
forcing that is available may be enough to generate some flurries.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

The main story will be the return to well above normal temperatures
late in the week as a mostly zonal flow keeps arctic air held up
well to the north. The period looks largely dry outside a low
potential for rain with a passing frontal system Friday night into
Saturday.

Wednesday, a weak surface ridge passes over the area with warm air
advection aloft increasing by afternoon. This will keep the low
level inversion in place and possibly allow low clouds to linger
through much of the day. This would support guidance blend
highs in the 30s.

An upper level ridge and warm air aloft building over the Rockies
mid week edges eastward Thursday and Friday, leading to a
significant warming trend. Highs should reach well into the 40s to
lower 50s Thursday and then the lower to mid 50s progged for Friday.
Friday could be even warmer, depending on the timing of an advancing
cold front and its axis of enhanced prefrontal warming. Friday night
into Saturday, an upper level trough passes to the north driving the
cold front through the forecast area. This sends high temperatures
back into the 30s for Sunday and Monday, which would be closer to
late January normals. While our forecast has low chances for
precipitation with this front Friday night into Saturday, confidence
is below average. Models are in loose agreement with the frontal
timing and all suggest better chances to our southeast, where there
may lift from a shortwave and better moisture availability, coming
together more toward the Ohio Valley region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
ISSUED AT 518 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

Widespread MVFR conditions were across Iowa with IFR conditions in
northern Illinois. MVFR conditions will continue at all TAF sites
through 12z/24 with flurries possible up through 16z/23.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...Sheets
AVIATION...08



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