Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 052041
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
341 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CWA PROVIDING FULL SUNSHINE...LIGHT
WINDS AND PLEASANT SPRING TEMPERATURES. 2 PM READINGS WERE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE MID LEVELS HAS
CAUSED A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY FROM EASTERN MN
INTO CENTRAL IA AND NORTH CENTRAL MO. THIS HAS PRETTY MUCH STAYED
JUST WEST OF THE DVN CWA AS THE CLOUDS DRIFT SOUTHWARD. THERE HAS
EVEN BEEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND IN FAR WESTERN
WI AND THE EAST METRO OF THE TWIN CITIES. THESE SHOWERS WERE
OCCURRING IN THE STRONGER ZONE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION.

ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S IN THE
GREAT PLAINS...WITH SOME LOWER 90S IN ND AND MANITOBA. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY THERE WAS 15 PERCENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 30
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA
ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WINDS BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPPER
40S. SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECTING
ANY SHOWERS TO REMAIN IN WISCONSIN WHERE THE BETTER WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL EXIST. BELIEVE THE HRRR IS OVERDOING THE SHOWERS IN THE DVN CWA
BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES. WON`T MENTION IN THE GRIDS
BUT SOMETHING FOR LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR.

FRIDAY...WARM DAY WITH THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WIND...850 MB TEMPERATURES OF +15 TO 16C AND A DRY AIRMASS SHOULD
SUPPORT LOWER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SPOTS
MAY MANAGE TO SEE 85 DEGREES CONSIDERING WE SHOULD HAVE SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

SATURDAY...EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
HALTED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN AND
POINTS TO THE E/NE. AS A RESULT...LIFT OVER E IOWA/W ILLINOIS WILL
BE WEAK AND PRIMARILY RESTRICTED TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...POPS ARE IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE WITH RAIN AMOUNTS LESS
THAN A TENTH FOR MOST AREAS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
SOUTHERN CWA BY THE MID TO LATE AFTN.

THUNDERSTORM DETAILS...THE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS IN
THE DVN CWA ARE IN THE COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34...TO
THE WEST OF GALESBURG...WHERE MUCAPES MAY EXCEED 1500 J/KG AND 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR IS NEAR 45 KTS OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SATURDAY/S COLD FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY SATURDAY NIGHT AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS IT IS FORCED BY A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING IN THE
WEST-CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE HIGHEST
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GFS 850MB WV TRANSPORT IS MAXIMIZED
ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.25 INCHES TO THE
ESE OF A COHERENT 850MB LOW MOVING INTO E NEBRASKA.

RAIN POTENTIAL...THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM HIGHLIGHTED IN THE CPC 3-7 DAY HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK HAS NOW SHIFTED FURTHER TO THE EAST TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE PWATS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BECOME ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH...REMAINING BELOW 1 STANDARD DEVIATION...THE SYSTEM IS A SLOW
MOVER AND SHOWS A SOLID MOISTURE CONNECTION WITH THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...VIA 850 WV TRANSPORT VECTORS.

THE WPC 5-7 DAY QPF SUPPORTS CPC/S OUTLOOK...PAINTING A GENERAL 1 TO
3 INCHES ALONG WHERE THE WARM FRONT SETS UP AND THE 850MB LOW
TRACKS...FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH IOWA AND NORTHERN
MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...TOO EARLY TO FORECAST WITH MUCH DETAIL.
HOWEVER...SOME STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY OVER
THE SOUTHWEST SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND THE THREAT FOR RAIN TRANSLATES INTO NO BIG
WARM UPS WITH AVG HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY...SEASONAL TEMPS CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
OR AN ISOLATED STORM. UTTECH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING
SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING SOUTHWEST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS AROUND
10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...HAASE


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