Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 220444

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1144 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016


Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

High pressure ridge over the dvn cwa providing plenty of sunshine and
light winds today. 2 pm temperatures were in the lower to mid 50s.

Watching 2 areas of clouds, one area of low clouds streaming
southward off Lake Superior and covering much of central and
eastern WI and edging into northeast IL. The other area is warm
air advection mid/high clouds pushing east across MN, IA, the
eastern Dakotas and MO. Early afternoon temperatures were well
into the 60s to lower 70s throughout much of the Great Plains.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Forecast focus on warmer temperatures.

Late afternoon through tonight: expecting clouds to continue
spreading into the dvn cwa and remaining over much of the area
into tonight. Despite our far eastern counties having light wind
most of the night, the clouds should prevent a widespread frost so
will keep the mention of patchy frost going in the grids. Elsewhere,
winds become southerly overnight as the ridge of high pressure
shifts to our southeast.

At this time not anticipating any frost headlines to be issued,
but if clouds thin or move out of the cwa sooner then frost may
become more widespread (east of the MS River). Will let the
evening shift monitor cloud/temperature trends. Minimum
temperatures should drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s at most
locations. Once again, our far eastern counties may drop into the
mid 30s and will keep the mention of some frost.

Saturday: Fantastic day to start the weekend with plenty of
sunshine, southerly winds of about 10 to 15 mph and warmer
temperatures. Afternoon readings should push into the 60s, about
10 degrees warmer than today.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Fine October weather with a decent chance of a light to moderate
precipitation event middle of next week.

Long Term Forecast Confidence Assessment...good or above average.
Main issue is track of a moderate strength low pressure system
moving generally east from the high plains middle of next week.
Temperatures most days may tend with low RH and sunny skies to have
slightly wider diurnal temperatures.

Saturday Night Through Tuesday...Dry and fair with the warmest day
Sunday with highs upper 60s to lower 70s and about 10 degrees cooler
the next 2 days.  Lows mostly in the 40s with some 30s Monday AM.
Winds will be generally light and less than 10 to 15 MPH.

Late Tuesday through Wednesday...a passing moderate strength low
pressure disturbance should bring showers and some isolated to
scattered storms with mostly light to moderate rainfall totals
unless system tracks further south.  This question of the track
should be better known in the next 24 to 36 hours.  Little chance of
severe with dewpoints only struggling back into the low/mid 50s and
MUCAPES none or maybe at most 500 J/KG.   Highs generally in the 60s
with lows 45 to 55.

Thursday and Friday....more fine weather and basically dry with
highs mostly in the 60s with lows mostly in the 40s or close to
normal for late October.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

High pressure, centered just east of the Mississippi River as of
00Z, will slide east through Saturday, resulting in VFR conditions
continuing, and a wind switch from light and variable, to south to
southwest around 10 kts by Saturday morning. Some high clouds
will spread over the region will continue to thin and move east
throughh 09z, followed by mostly clear skies again later tonight
and all day Saturday. ERVIN




LONG TERM...Nichols
AVIATION...Ervin is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.