Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 230438
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1138 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Surface high pressure is located over northwest Iowa, and has been
strong enough to hold the upper low affecting Missouri far enough
away to bring sunny conditions to our region. While locations in the
northern 1/3 of our CWA are seeing light winds, the gradient between
the high and southern low continues to bring east to northeast winds
at 10 to 25 mph to the south half. This gradient should decay prior
to sunset today, making for a very pleasant end to the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

The air mass overhead has about 3 days of modification in the CONUS
associated with it, and that daily deep mixing has resulted in a
rise of about 8 degrees each day over the region. That is likely to
reason that lows tonight are generally forecast to remain a bit
higher than last night`s coldest readings. This results in a
forecast of upper 30s to lower 40s lows, with nearly calm winds. I
am sure a few protected valleys still could dip to the mid 30s, but
this forecast is just too mild at the moment to include frost.

Sunday, will be outstanding. Full Sun, light west winds on the
backside of the departing high should boost temperatures another 5
to 8 degrees from today`s highs. The upper 60s to lower 70s with
light winds will provide an ideal day.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Sunday Night and Monday, 12Z Saturday deterministic model runs
indicate beautiful weather will continue through Monday as a nearly
zonal flow aloft and surface high pressure remain over the upper
midwest. High temperatures on Monday will be in the low to mid 70s
with overnight temperatures in the lower 50s.

Tuesday, Skies are expected to be dry for most of the day. The mid
range model runs prog a surface frontal boundary to move across the
area towards evening, providing a focusing mechanism for scattered
showers and thunderstorms overnight into Wednesday. Temperatures on
Tuesday will be cooler with highs in the upper 60s.

Wednesday and Thursday, On Wednesday showers and thunderstorms will
slowly end from west to east during the day as a surface boundary
becomes quasi-statiomary southeast of the forecast area. High
temperatures Wednesday will be in the low 60s north of Interstate 80
and in upper 60s to the south. Overnight lows will be in the 40s. On
Thursday, long range models progs skies to once again be dry for
most of the day with an upper level shortwave ridge located over the
upper Mississippi valley. By late in the day the shortwave ridge
axis will move to the east changing the flow aloft to the southwest
introducing a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday and Saturday, The weather will remain unsettled as the
deepening Rocky Mountain trof dives south to the four corners region
setting up a southwest flow aloft. This upper level trof/closed low
will eject a series of shortwaves towards the midwest bringing a
chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. Note: There are
significant descrepancies in model solutions during this time making
for low confidence in the timing and intensity of storms that
develop late next week. Kuhl

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

VFR conditions will remain in place overnight through Sunday as
high pressure moves over the region. Under clear skies, winds will
be light and variable overnight, becoming light south to southwest
by late Sunday afternoon.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Ervin
SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Kuhl
AVIATION...Sheets



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